MMORPGs will go the way of disco.....

[Zoomer30]

....once the pile of steaming fly guano known as Star Trek Online goes live next year. If you thought grinding endlessly on 10 different planets was fun in SWG, just wait till you get to grind for hours in a spacecraft with small corridors.

Oh well...hopefully by then I will be playing GTA PS3 in HDTV so i wont notice 😀

 

[guruofchem]

Why would an entire genre of games with a built-in revenue stream go away simply because a new one isn't good? There have been plenty of so-so or outright crummy MMORPG's, and I haven't seen a decline in the numbers of new ones being offered - in fact, the opposite seems to be true. Clearly, the mindless violence of GTA has wiped a few synapses...

 

[Human1]

Umm... yeah. I'm not super big on the MMORPGs either, but 6 million WOW players and 2 million Guild Wars players? That's a whole heck of a lot of people, no matter how you slice it. Think, 6 million people paying at least $12.50/month to play a game? Viviendi is raking in so much money just from WOW to make them a profitable company, finally!
Guild Wars has been so successful that it has spawned several 'free' MMORPGs that are due out in the next year. Big names are behind them, like Sony and NCsoft (who was backed ArenaNet for GW in the first place).
I see more and more people playing these games, especially since we'll (hopefully) be seeing more high quality games without that pesky monthly fee tacking itself on.

 

[Gary_Busey]

I'd imagine if the 'fee-less' MMORPG trend continues, and these same companies can make a game that's near the quality of WoW, 6 million will be pocket change. There's a large market out there that would play WoW if it weren't for the monthly fees, and Guild Wars has only hit the tip of that iceberg.

 

[guruofchem]

The problem is delivering the depth of WoW without charging the fee to recoup the up-front costs. The reason most people cite for leaving Guild Wars is that there is insuffucient depth to maintain their interest. I think there is a happy medium out there somewhere - if a game like GW can deliver as much as it does without a fee, someone should be able to deliver WoW-like content at a more reasonable price point - $5 a month, maybe, discounted to $50 on a yearly purchase. This is pretty much what NCSoft is doing from a cost standpoint by releasing paid upgrades to GW about yearly, but my guess is that delivering the content seamlessly in-game instead of in big gulps as a retail update would make the same cost more palatable, and would get more people to pony up the money. I bought GW, but haven't bought Factions, so I represent uncaptured revenue NCSoft wouldn't have lost had I been on a monthly plan.

Just look at the math - if NCSoft has sold 2 million units of GW/Factions at $50, that is 100 million dollars in revenue for a year. If we assume conservatively that only a fourth of those 6 million WoW accounts are active in a given month, that is still $22.5 million monthly (1.5 mil x $15) or $270 million annually, without factoring in the original price of the software (another $300 million or so at $50 per box). I realize that not all of that money is actually revenue to the company, but nonetheless we are looking at BIG dollars to be made here, and having that perpetual stream of revenue must be a dream for a software developer/publisher. Bottom line - someone will make a game as good as WoW, and charge a lower fee for it, it is just a question of how long it will take someone to hit on the right model.

 

[rhuber]

Guild Wars is actually looking to release a new chapter every 6 months, not every year. They have three coder teams, two that switch off on building new chapters, and the third that handles special events. The next scheduled release is in October/November, or so they claim.

Each chapter is selling for $50. Expand this out a year or two and they are pulling in $200 million a year or more. I think where they will shoot themselves in the foot, however, is in a year, anyone that wants to play the game from the beginning will be shilling out about $150-$200 for all the chapters unless you can find the first 2-3 in a bargain bin...

R

 

[guruofchem]

I had heard that they were planning 2 chapters a year, but given that it took a year to deliver the first one, i figured a "wait and see" attitude would be appropriate. They seem the sort to get it right, rather than do it fast, so I suspect that 9-12 months between chapters will be more likely. Your point about players coming in later is a good one - having to buy several "back issues" would be annoying to say the least...

 

[vindaloopie]

i really wanna see some MMORPG's come to consoles

 

[andopolis]

I wanna see a GTA MMO...

 

[guruofchem]

Interesting idea - not sure how you would structure it though. Might work as a heavy PvP game...

 

[turkishdrummer]

Something about mmorpg's just makes always wanting more. It truly is addicting and developers no that and thats why so many mmo games are coming out

 

[heartview]

If games like Asheron's Call and Shadowbane can still maintain a profit with low populations I'm thinking MMORPG's have yet to see their golden age. EverQuest is about to release its 12th expansion and still maintains a large population of dedicated players.

MMORPG's are going be here for a very long time.

 

[georgebeee]

why do you suppose games like asheron's call have low populations? games which were wildly popular when they first came out. I believe it has to do with this addiction the companies deem it necessary to design into the game. they seem to think if you don't struggle to accomplish something, you don't enjoy getting it.

why does the model have to be based on accomplishing something. sure, that's a large part of the enjoyment, but that appears to be the problem. the game itself needs to be fun. for after you've reached the highest level, or gotten the baddest weapons/armor...what's left? I hear a lot of folks talking of WoW being worthless way too quick after reaching level 60.

I recently went back and played asheron's call. was in the beta and bought the game after it first came out. they've completely destroyed the game. top level is now something over 200. but it's no fun. that's all there is now is grind, grind, grind. used to be a decent game.

I guess that's just me though. I also didn't buy factions. I was in that beta too, and purchased the original. there are still quite a few people playing the original game. they've removed all the chests that don't require keys in the missions and quests, which takes a lot out of the game if you ask me. I'm not gonna be pushed into buying expansions that don't look like I'll enjoy them, so I'm probably done buying gw expansions. I guess quite a few is just a perspective though, as they used to have over 30 servers in ascalon city alone, now down to 8.

still in search of the ultimate rpg, mmo or not. but more and more it's looking sad. it's not about producing a quality product, it's about producing a quality profit margin. but I think they got that backwards. like somebody mentioned, tip of the iceberg. of course, with a huge game population would come huge expenses for bandwidth and servers. and temporary bandwidth is one thing, but hardware is another, and the trend in declining game population will probably keep anybody from investing too much into a game.

how long does it take to develop a game like WoW or asheron's call to the point where it can be released, and the company(s) can start recouping some of their investment cost, compared to how long a game like guild wars takes to develop. I think that's another consideration into the profit margin of the differetn types of games

 

[Aramane]

MMORPG's without a doubt will NEVER go out of style. Ultima Online being my first in 97(?) I've been addicted ever since like millions of other people.

Age of Conan will be the next big MMO if you ask me, Should be released around christmas (hopefully).

 

[Brimstone]

The MMO line of games is still in its infancy

EvE Online is still growing at a rate of knots (they are expanding the RPG side of things, with planetary flight, ability to move around stations and more)

WoW and Ultima are still going strong

Star Trek Online looking to open another classic sci-fi branch, and whether or not it's actually good or not will not matter, as it's still got the Star Trek brand.

Halo Multiplayer nearing release

Lord of the Rings Online in beta

Plus many many more.

One game is not enough to kill a market this big. It will be future of gaming. Why play a limited computer game when you can play games with and against people all over the world of all abilities that's ever changing and dynamic.