Opinion: AMD, Intel, And Nvidia In The Next Ten Years

[knowom]

Nvidia is pretty diversified both on the hardware and software side of things more than I realized it would be nice if they were to make a upgradeable console possibly with more pc orientated peripherals.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Excellent write up, and touches on everything Ive seen or thought plus some. Great job!!!

 

[Guest]

"My DeLorean-era Magnepan MG-IIIs, powered by a pair of Adcom GFA-555 IIs, are still commandingly better"

And the current revision (3.6Rs) are better still, and a decade earlier they were great. The engineering issues for physical transducers don't change.

"The little studio at ATC/Dunhill as very nicely tricked out with a brand new Bosendorfer piano, our splendid double Magneplanar monitor system, and a newly acquired and fabulously expensive set of Audio Research D-76 tube power amps to go with the Maggies. You should have been there."
-- Donald Fagen & Walter Becker's liner notes to the CD reissue of 1975's "Katy Lied"

 

[Gin Fushicho]

The excitement is getting to me , I really hope I'll be around for all this.

 

[Mousemonkey]

@giovanni86, your rambling was OK but then you went all potty mouth.

 

[badaxe2]

Really good article. I liked the props he gave to the Klipsch sound solution.

 

[Guest]

One gaming genre that really helped push the hardware requirements not mentioned in this article is flight simulation. You needed both the CPU horsepower and graphics rendering capability. However the strange decision by Microsoft to shutter Aces Game Studio likely ending the Microsoft Flight Simulator franchise (one of its best selling PC gaming codes of all time) has left that market in a lurch, the last flight sim release being over 3 years ago now. Typically it would take at least a year or 2 from initial game release to when hardware became available to run the software at max slider levels.

 

[invlem]

"Simply put, software development has not been moving as fast as hardware growth. While hardware manufacturers have to make faster and faster products to stay in business, software developers have to sell more and more games"

As a software developer I'm going to target the biggest possible market... Unfortunately that market is governed by 3 companies who are going to squeeze every last drop out of their current hardware before releasing the next generation which means 5+ years between a refresh in hardware. (Remember these guys aren't making a profit off the hardware but rather the accessories and software bought along side it, the longer they can stretch the hardware the bigger the end profits).

IMO the major threat to the hardware industry, is actually the console hardware industry, software is just keeping pace with the moneymaker.

 

[DearSX]

I think the future will have AMD getting into SSDs. Nvidia too. Ram will be atleast able to store windows, I mean it can now. More cores and perhaps Cell Cpus will come in. Last thing, and most important is PCs will turn into things more like the Nintendo Wii, where fun will be a major priority.

 

[belardo]

[citation][nom]jontseng[/nom]~~So your logic is flawed, or rather you have the wrong end of the stick. Because software titles with more complex graphics are not being created (because of the console baseline), newer and more powerful GPUs will not continue to produced.Or to put it in more practical terms, because the most graphically demanding title you can possibly get is now three years old (Crysis), then NVidia has been happy to churn out G92 respins based on a 2006 spec.Until we next generation of consoles comes through there is zero commercial incentive for a developer to build a AAA title which exploits the 13% of the market that has PCs (or the even smaller bit of that has a modern graphics card). Which means you don't get phat new GPUs, QED.And the problem is the console cycle seems to be elongating...J[/citation]

I've been posting something like that for a while. Tends to piss people off.

NO AAA or AAAA titles = NO need for $200~$300 much less a $600 graphics card. No cards = maybe less games too, but mostly, no software = NO hardware.

Back in 2000, a PC game called UNREAL came out that a friend showed me on his 300Mhz PentiumII computer. I quickly pulled together $150 for my first Voodoo1 card (4mb of video RAM) because *I* wanted to play that game and others in all their glory.

Thank MS more than SONY for the demise of top-end PC games.

 

[jontseng]

Following up on my previous comment, the other structural issue to consider is the rise of the laptop.

Laptops are now >50% of new PCs sold, although I suspect they are still

 

[lotri]

Intel, AMD, and Nvidia need to figure out which market to focus on. The hardcore gamers usually go for desktop systems which can handle more powerful hardware and provide better cooling.

On the other hand, there are consumers who enjoy portable gaming with enough power to rival a B-class desktop gaming rig. Nvidia took a big step forward with their Optimum and Ion technology. Hopefully, it only gets better.

 

[g00ey]

It seems like AMD and Nvidia will have to create some kind of monetary incentives for game developers to make computer games that fully utilize the potential of newer GPUs.

Perhaps a platform that has the same convenience as a regular gaming console but with better cooling and the option to expand with a newer GPU could also be an idea. One problem with this is that it won't have the same advantage as a closed platform when it comes to beta testing, optimization and follow-ups on bugs.

 

[Shin-san]

#3 reason why sound card market is dying: awful drivers. Auzentech has been surprisingly decent.

 

[dotaloc]

What a great read. I'm normally first page / last page kinda guy unless I'm really into the topic, but this really drew me in. Very interesting stuff.

 

[chechak]

OMG OMG OMG CoD: MW2's budget $200 million!

 

[taintsauce]

Damn. Just...damn.

Very, very good read, sir.

 

[spks19]

I read this as, "Buy one 5970 now, and in 2 years get a second one."

 

[rajeshsundaram]

Excellent article. One of the best I've read!

 

[izmanq]

[citation][nom]AlanDang[/nom]From Disney/Pixar PR:"The average amount of time required to render a single frame of film for Up was between five and six hours. Some complicated frames took up to 20 hours. For every second of film, 24 frames are required."[/citation]

In the article said a cluster of supercomputer is used to render the frame, and still take 5-6 hour per frame.

How many supercomputers did pixar have, if a cluster(several) of supercomputer take that long to render a frame.

What's the "supercomputer" specs

I agree with neiroatopelcc, i don't know why people give him thumbs down :|

 

[Arbie]

Great article! Insights well beyond what I've seen elsewhere and succinctly explained. I find that I'm spending less time with Toms each year, but content like this can change that. Thanks!

 

[belardo]

[citation][nom]spks19[/nom]I read this as, "Buy one 5970 now, and in 2 years get a second one."[/citation]

Doesn't work that way. SLI/CF are only useful for new builds are within the first 6 or so months of a cards life on market. Steam stats show that only 1% of users actually ever use a dual card setup.

Top end cards are always the FIRST to die and be replaced by newer products. Why would anyone buy yesterdays $500 card? Bottom end cards will last for years... ie: 5200, 6200, 8400... ATI 9200, 2600, 3400s.

So in two years... a 2nd hand 5970 will be worth about $100... if that. And if somehow 3G gaming is worth-while in 2 years for PC (with consoles getting very OLD and a year or so before PS4)... the ATI 7850 maybe faster than two 5970s... for all we know.

2004 - ATI 9800Pro was a top end $400.
2006 - ATI 1900XTX was a top end $500, allowed CF (2 cards)
2006 - GF 8800GTX hits market at $500, instantly devalues the 1900XTX.
2007 - ATI 3870 hits market at $200, easily twice the card of a 1900XTX
(Why would someone buy another 1900 unless it was $100? The power and cooler requirements go up for dual cards)
2008 - ATI 4670 hits market at $75, almost equal to the 3870.
2008 - GF 260 & 280 hit the market at $400/$650... fastest GPUs.
2008 - 2 weeks later, ATI 4850/70 hit market at $250/$350... not as fast as GF 260/280... but fast enough that who would spend almost double for a 5~10% performance increase. Nvidia quickly reduces prices of GF2xx cards to $300/$400... loses lots of profit.

Fermi will be a repeat of the GF GTX2 cards. (GTX letters in front of name is stupid). Lets refer to all Geforce cards without the useless letters.

 

[Guest]

games like crysis run over 100 fps on max settings on a 30 inch tv too? on the ati 5970

 

[metalforlife9999]

go nvidia!!

 

[olen ahkcre]

Death of the sound card... yeah, it's true.

Connect the PC to a 7.1 surround sound system over optical cable, if you're really into high-quality audio.

No need to buy a sound card anymore these days.