Predict AMD's Q4 Earnings ... go on !!

[jimmysmitty]

^lol.......

Wounder if AMD stepping backwards would work like it did for Intel......

 

[verndewd]

^lol.......

Wounder if AMD stepping backwards would work like it did for Intel......

:lol: I am not convinced they are aware of which step they would need to take to go back :lol:

(visualizes back room dialogue with Dirk and crew......" how in the hell did we get close with phenom2?" looks around at a bewildered staff all shrugging their shoulders. a short dumpy sandwich eating man steps forward ," I didnt want to say anything but I spilled coke on the phenom design and i decided to reverse analyze the stains and it outperformed phenom so I suggested it.")

 

[Reynod]

vern ... didn't you write some awesome article a couple of years back on TIM?

Would you be prepared to edit it and put it up as a sticky perhaps?

 

[verndewd]

I wrote one on electro migration and another on optical elements being used on die several years back. Ninja wrote the TIM article and hes a writer for another site.( some low rate startup site I have heard :evil laugh

 

[Reynod]

Aaah ... sorry bout that ... got confused (old age and AMD coolaid addiction).

I first read about electromigration when working on audio amplifiers (old 2n3055 / mj2955 push pull stuff) and we were frying a lot of trannies due to pushing too much voltage through them, and insufficient cooling.

From memory there was an old old article we had to read as techs ... by General Electric ... something like that.

 

[verndewd]

Aaah ... sorry bout that ... got confused (old age and AMD coolaid addiction).

I first read about electromigration when working on audio amplifiers (old 2n3055 / mj2955 push pull stuff) and we were frying a lot of trannies due to pushing too much voltage through them, and insufficient cooling.

From memory there was an old old article we had to read as techs ... by General Electric ... something like that.

32 nm i5's are revealing Em pretty well as you oc with near 2v settings. A guy at xs killed several i5's trying to hit 7ghz and over. I think at this coming node people really need to take EM seriously if they dont want to wait on RMA's for fried chips.

I am thinking AMD wont oc well at 32nm but then again with Doug Grose at the helm I could very well be wrong, obviously Grose and AMD will have to plot tolerances that can handle the voltage but even then there is only so much voltage room as nodes shrink.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

I'd rather be in UAE than in israel tbh.

You would change your mind in a nanosecond if the UAE decided to implement sharia law. If you used a cellphone in public, tried to drive a car, or did any other 'manly' activities you'd get flogged in public.

Saudi Arabia is not sharia, closer to the UAE, but even SA treats women quite differently that what you're presumably used to:

Saudi girl faces beating over phone at school

Rights group: Teenager sentenced after being caught with banned device

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - A teenage girl has been sentenced to a 90-lash flogging and two months in prison as punishment for assaulting a teacher, a Saudi judge said in an interview published Sunday.

Human rights group Amnesty International said the assault happened after the girl was caught with a camera phone at school.

Given your record here on THG, you wouldn't last 2 seconds without getting into trouble with the authorities..

 

[fazers_on_stun]

AMD paid most of the ATI purchase upfront .

Not sure where they got all the doug, but they borrowed 2.5B from Morgan Stanley upfront, and then made other arrangements to fund the purchase: Dailytech

Of the $5.4 billion that it took to purchase ATI, AMD borrowed roughly $2.5 billion in loans and combined with $1.2 biillion common stock. The acquisition not only cost AMD much of its available principle but also left it in heavy debt. At the time, AMD did not disclose plans of how it would pay off the debt. In fact, two months before the confirmed acquisition of ATI, AMD announced that it would be spending $5.8 billion USD into the development of fabs in Dresden, Germany.

Last week, AMD announced that it will offer Convertible Senior Notes to investors in an attempt to raise roughly $2.2 billion. However, unlike common stock purchases, Convertible Senior Notes put AMD further into debt -- in this case, another $2.2 billion USD. Using Convertible Senior Notes, investors profit since the notes can be converted to common stock once AMD is performing well.

Using Convertible Senior Notes, AMD can receive usable cash now, but not have to worry about paying back its investors until its common stock reaches a predefined price. In this case, AMD set the conversion point to be $42.12 USD per share but its current price is roughly $14. In the catastrophic event that AMD goes bankrupt, Convertible Senior Notes take priority over other debts and thus bond investors are guaranteed the return on their investment.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Why would it be likely that Sandy Bridge will beat BD? BD is a completely new arch, while Sandy Bridge is supposedly a fine tuning of the i7s arch. If BD destroys the i7 it has a good chance of beating SB.

That's easy - just look at the track record for the last 4 years. If you wanna bet on the winning nag, that's what a handicapper would do - see how said nag did in previous races.

If you wanna go broke at the track real fast, bet on the unknown dark horse - occasionally they win, but usually they lose...

We could also mention that Bulldozer will be a new arch on a new node that is using a compromised HKMG 'gate first' approach, and also under a new fabless business model. Lots of opportunity to go wrong there..

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I look at it this way, Llano will be an altrenative in netbook/top, where Intel has basically gone unchallenged.
Any marketshare AMD capsures there is just that much less than Intels.
Qualcomm et al isnt going to just roll over and die and arent going to just let Intel right in.
The availability for other companies to have better compenets thru GF, the fact that GF will have greateer sourcing than Intel, and going into the future will as well, and a more competitive AMD , Intel has its work cut out forthem.
They have to tread a fine line (no pun intended) to maintain what they currently have, as its arguably been created thru questionable means.
That change alone may have huge effects on the grand old nag itself, and as it opens itself to more competition, it also spreads itself out against stronger competition.
IMO, Intels hayday has come and gone. Unless it makes huge advances in mobile and SSDs, its growth going forwards has seen its better days.

 

[jennyh]

You would change your mind in a nanosecond if the UAE decided to implement sharia law. If you used a cellphone in public, tried to drive a car, or did any other 'manly' activities you'd get flogged in public.

As opposed to being constantly surrounded by enemies and having rockets land on people's heads? Ok put it this way, I'd rather have fabs in the UAE instead of Israel because it's a much safer country - contrary to your suggestion.

Given your record here on THG, you wouldn't last 2 seconds without getting into trouble with the authorities..

It's not even 100 years since the Suffragettes brought about change here, and I'm sure places like the UAE will change as soon as the women there make it happen.

 

[BadTrip]

It's not even 100 years since the Suffragettes brought about change here, and I'm sure places like the UAE will change as soon as the women there make it happen.

Good Luck with that.

 

[jennyh]

I look at it this way, Llano will be an altrenative in netbook/top, where Intel has basically gone unchallenged.
Any marketshare AMD capsures there is just that much less than Intels.
Qualcomm et al isnt going to just roll over and die and arent going to just let Intel right in.
The availability for other companies to have better compenets thru GF, the fact that GF will have greateer sourcing than Intel, and going into the future will as well, and a more competitive AMD , Intel has its work cut out forthem.
They have to tread a fine line (no pun intended) to maintain what they currently have, as its arguably been created thru questionable means.
That change alone may have huge effects on the grand old nag itself, and as it opens itself to more competition, it also spreads itself out against stronger competition.
IMO, Intels hayday has come and gone. Unless it makes huge advances in mobile and SSDs, its growth going forwards has seen its better days.

Yep I was reading an analyst report recently that basically said intel would lose vs ARM and should just withdraw from the mobile arena altogether.

The chip business is too big to be dominated by once company, but intel won't accept anyone else. This will be their downfall, much more likely coming from somebody like ARM instead of AMD, but yep they cannot bribe everybody and their sub-standard engineers will get found out sooner or later.

 

[jennyh]

Good Luck with that.

It's not luck that is needed. Women died here too and a lot more will die in those countries but it's the only way.

 

[BadTrip]

Yep I was reading an analyst report recently that basically said intel would lose vs ARM and should just withdraw from the mobile arena altogether.

The chip business is too big to be dominated by once company, but intel won't accept anyone else. This will be their downfall, much more likely coming from somebody like ARM instead of AMD, but yep they cannot bribe everybody and their sub-standard engineers will get found out sooner or later.

That is possible, though unlikely. Intel is bringing some major new competition out later this year.

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=3716

 

[Reynod]

You would change your mind in a nanosecond if the UAE decided to implement sharia law. If you used a cellphone in public, tried to drive a car, or did any other 'manly' activities you'd get flogged in public.

Saudi Arabia is not sharia, closer to the UAE, but even SA treats women quite differently that what you're presumably used to:

Saudi girl faces beating over phone at school

Rights group: Teenager sentenced after being caught with banned device

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - A teenage girl has been sentenced to a 90-lash flogging and two months in prison as punishment for assaulting a teacher, a Saudi judge said in an interview published Sunday.

Human rights group Amnesty International said the assault happened after the girl was caught with a camera phone at school.

Given your record here on THG, you wouldn't last 2 seconds without getting into trouble with the authorities..

Funny your should say that ... I knocked back a job to run a new college in the UAE on the basis that my wife wouldn't last a day without getting locked up / flogged etc ...

She would struggle too much with the different cultural values.

/sigh ...

 

[jennyh]

Yep but ARM isn't standing still either, and there are rumours of Apple making their own chip too. Everybody wants a piece of that and JDJ is right, intel are running at their maximum capacity considering they had to outsource Atom to TSMC.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

That is possible, though unlikely. Intel is bringing some major new competition out later this year.

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=3716

Itll be interesting to see if this is more Anands love for Intel, or fact. We will see what happens, never know, but theres more to this than what weve seen so far, or, it isnt just as cut n dried so to speak.

 

[BadTrip]

Itll be interesting to see if this is more Anands love for Intel, or fact. We will see what happens, never know, but theres more to this than what weve seen so far, or, it isnt just as cut n dried so to speak.

We will know in <5 months.

 

[verndewd]

jennyh wrote :


It's not even 100 years since the Suffragettes brought about change here, and I'm sure places like the UAE will change as soon as the women there make it happen.

.

You do realize that the suffragettes were just an ad campaign to sell cigarettes to women dont you? the creator of said group admitted as much before he died. Sigmund frueds nephew Edward Bernays.

The law eventually had to come in and clean up Eds mess after the easilly directed women of the world personalized the creation and made it their own, and then became quite disturbed with the ideology of the movement being closer to terrorists in some regard than rights activists. Eventually it turned out for the better but not before alot of run ins with the law.

Funny how people can turn ad campaigns into personal agendas.

 

[Cryslayer80]

300 million +/- 😛... I really have no idea...

 

[BadTrip]

I really have no idea...

You have never spoke truer words.

 

[Cryslayer80]

And you've never posted a stupider statement since I got here. But there are a few ones that are competing for the first place on the chart of stupidity...

 

[Chad Boga]

Nobody said it was a free lunch.

GF have a bunch of customers, and a bunch of fabs. Each customer pays money per wafer, which in turn helps GF to make a profit etc.

What profit? Global Floundries isn't a publicly listed company, yet they have taken over loss making enterprises like Chartered and AMD's Fabs.

Where is the evidence that these rocks tied together can float?

GF are already #2, having taken over UMC on revenues. How can that be so? Simple, AMD are already paying GF for wafers, and the Chartered revenues too.

Revenue != Profit.

Now AMD may be getting a preferential rate, but in no way will the removal of that preferential rate cost them more than the drain of running the fabs did.

We actually don't know if this is how it will play out yet.

Obviously that is the medium term goal, but if AMD aren't able to significantly increase it's market and profit share, then it won't be cost effective for Global to keep subsidising AMD. It is still far from clear if Global Floundries will be able to achieve the economies of scale that allow them to charge AMD a price that allows them to compete against Intel.

Let's say for example that currently each CPU AMD makes costs them $20 in manufacturing costs and each CPU Intel makes costs them $10.

What happens if Global Floundries need to one day charge AMD, cost + profit for GF, thus have to charge AMD $25 per CPU and Intel's costs are still $10.

That in and of itself is not a game changer, but it would show that AMD's goal of competing against Intel just got that bit much harder than it used to be.

If it did, they wouldn't sell.

Now here is where you show your lack of understanding of the circumstances.

AMD sold because without selling, bankruptcy would have been guaranteed at some point in the medium term(maybe it would have been in the short term), but by selling their fabs to ATIC, they buy themselves probably another 10 years to try and find some way to stay alive.

But whereas it might have seemed possible in the heady days of K8 dominance that AMD could become the equal of Intel, the selling off of their fabs now makes that seem an impossibility.

GF *can* run many fabs profitably, because they have many customers, just like TSMC.

Not all companies are equal.

GF is a group of enterprises that have been bleeding red ink, it is a tad optimistic to assume that by tying these rocks together they will now be able to float.

The difference here is, GF needs AMD because AMD will be the company who pushes them further. GF needs AMD to be successful, and AMD will always be the #1 customer.

This is absolutely true in the short term to medium term, but unless ATIC are complete idiots, they must have done due diligence and worked out if it was a realistic goal that they could be a true rival to a group like TSMC(who don't fab any AMD cpu's), over the longer term and thus be able to do it without AMD if need be.

In summing up, I believe you have confused the medium term with the long term.

If ATIC/GF were so convinced that AMD would be absolutely crucial to them in the long term, and if they are prepared to bankroll AMD for as much as it takes, why didn't they bankroll AMD so that they could continue with their court action against Intel,(especially as you believe that Intel's guilt was so obvious), and go for a massive damages payout, instead of settling for a measly $1.25billion?

You have been suggesting that ATIC/GF may be able to afford FABS for 16nm production at a cost of $50billion each and Intel won't be able to, yet ATIC/GF wouldn't bankroll AMD here(and the Intel amount shows that $1.25billion was all they needed to bankroll AMD for)

When you work out the answer to that question, you might then realise how fanciful all your predictions of the AMD/GF partnership being one that will sweep all before it.

 

[Chad Boga]

BTW. I am predicting AMD loses money again in Q1 2010.