shikamaru31789 :
[citation]
You say that they wouldn't need to reveal always-online at the unveiling...
I will repeat my note about always-online - it's something that has been tried at least twice in recent memory by international gaming companies, so it is in no way a stretch to think that MSFT would attempt it. It was even rumored for the PS4. The same for the used game blocking. That rumor started since last year's E3 and had a number of industry people trying to justify it, so it's not at all a stretch to be concerned somewhat that they may try to go forward with something like that. Again, the PS4 had the same rumor until it was disproved when they announced the system. Gamestop's CEO isn't going to trump anyone on something like that and shoot his business in the foot. Even if they lost Xbox used sales, he probably wants his company to continue to exist into the future, which only gets harder if he recklessly spills the beans that Xbox is going to block used games. I'm not saying whether this rumor is true or not, only that I think it a bit unreasonable to think Gamestop's CEO would mention anything about this aspect in any official or unofficial manner before MSFT had a chance to do it themselves. I hope they aren't going to block used games, but it's not a fanciful idea that they would try it.
My note about not delaying the announcement is about just that - the announcement. No one will be able to see if the system requires a persistent connection at a demonstration. If they were to be taking it out, then they could just as easily say this month it was never in than a month from now when they will still be asked about it and will still have the same chance to say no. If anything the extra month is to buy time for the idea to sink in. Even if the developer version required a persistent internet connection, there is nothing stopping them from tomorrow saying the retail version won't. This is about an announcement, not a product release. The system won't be for sale for months, announcing it this month or next isn't going to change that. As for not showing the PS4 itself, yeah, there were some questions, but that was mostly forgotten pretty quickly because everyone knows more or less what the console will look like in the end, and more interest was around the controller, the internal hardware, and the games.
I didn't mention anything about the Kinect because at this point I don't know how much of a rumor that is anymore. Kinect will be at least included in an optional bundle, and no report I know of indicates that a controller won't also be included, so I would be surprised if Kinect wasn't included.
As for the positives, let's look at the price of the current Xbox with Kinect. That's about $300. That's the current Xbox, with 4GB internal memory, and a Kinect. Now, you have to include an actual HDD. To add an HDD to the current Xbox is $130 for 320GB on the Microsoft Store. Since they will still be selling Xbox 360s for at least a few months, it's unlikely that they'll undercut that price too much. Even so, for the sake of argument, let's say they include a 500GB HDD for $100. Now add a DVR to the Xbox, and you're likely talking about around $50 there to license the technology. Then a TV Tuner is at least another $50. Then licensing of the rights for including set-top box functionality from even the top two TV/Satellite providers, you're looking at a very conservative minimum of $50 additional cost to the system. I will note that this TV streaming bit is the most improbable rumor around. Comcast, Time Warner, etc., all have to negotiate with the individual media groups (Turner Networks, NBC Universal, Disney) to secure broadcasting rights, and I don't know that MSFT wants to do that. Even if we assume that MSFT with this Xbox worked around that and just had their box replace your existing set-top- box to stream cable out of the wall into the Xbox, most cable providers charge a lease fee of $8-10 a month for each box, and have you return the box when you terminate service. Unless you have to subscribe to the next Xbox, that is a cost that will either be tacked on the service fee from the cable provider (making it comparatively bad) or have to be incorporated in the cost of the console itself. That's what makes $50 a conservative estimate. All that together already brings the system up to $550. That's before paying for Xbox Live Gold to access these premium options, and the cost some of these will likely incur anyway.
Now, it is possible that, as you say, they will go with two models, but by that would be a very risky gamble since they would then have to leave out all those premium features from the $300 model, and make it seem terribly unattractive by comparison. It is possible, certainly, but again that would be assuming that a brand new Xbox system with its newer internal bits, will be the same price as the current 360. At the very least, should the rumor of having to install all games be accurate, the next Xbox will likely cost more than $300 to put a decent size hard drive in it. Something like Skype is not a particularly big deal. They own it, and they could include it even on the current system through an update. Background apps is possible, and can be useful in some instances. The increased use of SmartGlass is also a possibility, but is hardly an exciting draw. Therein lies the problem with the probably stuff for the next Xbox - many of these do not generate a lot of excitement. They are not terribly difficult to do.
So, again, it's not that the bad rumors are mysteriously or through some conspiracy, have risen to the top. It's that the exciting news for the Xbox is exciting in the wrong way. The most positive ideas are seen as improbable if not impossible for MSFT to pull off, and all that is left are the lackluster improvements and a bunch of onerous stuff a lot of people don't like. The PS4 was the same way until the details of the performance came out, and the new controller was leaked. There's no new controller and the hardware specs aren't as good. So far not a lot o realistic good has been leaked about the next Xbox. It comes down to the fact that the Xbox is a game console, and the only real news so far on the gaming part of the console seems to be "our hardware's not as good as the PS4, and we'll probably require you to be constantly connected to the internet".
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