Seagate Wants to Ship 100TB HDDs by 2025

[bit_user]

SSD prices will continue to drop relatively faster than HDD's.

Really? Do you really have that much faith that lithography improvements will continue, unabated? Are you sure you're not just extrapolating from previous trends?

If not, what are the developments and technologies that will surpass the gains leading to 100 TB HDDs in just 6 years? I only did a quick search, but I don't see any flash memory roadmaps going out that far.

Please don't misunderstand my post.
I did NOT say SSD's would soon replace all HDD's at all price points.

I was reacting to the specific statement I quoted, as it implies $/GB for big SSDs dropping faster than for big HDDs. I don't know if that's possible, even without regard to whether big SSDs actually catch big HDDs.

As for the cost advantage of small SSDs, I see that as another consequence of the HDD price floor we already discussed. So, no disagreement there.

That's what happens when you take one sentence out of context. You say it implies... for "big SSDs dropping faster than for big HDD's.."?

You used the word "also", when starting to talk about the relative difference in price floors. That makes a big difference. It indicates you believe the first assertion to be independent of the second, rather than a consequence of it.

SSD prices will continue to drop relatively faster than HDD's.
Also, since they comprise a controller and the memory chips primarily, then price is mainly dictated by the price of the memory CHIPS.

An HDD has a lot of overhead with the case, arms, motors etc
...

If that's not what you meant, then just admit your error in wording. But, if you're going to get so defensive, then maybe put a little more time and thought into your posts, rather than doubling down 10x on a weak position, after the fact.

But in context I said nothing of the sort. Here's another sentence from the same post:
"As SSD memory prices drop they'll push HDD's out of the lower capacity spaces..."

That's not the same thing at all. I said "lower capacity spaces"; seems straight forward to me... but since you thought that implied larger capacities too then let's think about that. Go look up the cost/GB for SSD's and HDD's and see what's dropped the most RELATIVELY... I'd be surprised if SSD's were not dropping quicker.

Ah, there you go - just blindly extrapolating, like I said. With all the turmoil happening in silicon fabrication (Intel's 10 nm woes; GF cancelling their 7 nm node, etc.), that's a bad idea. 3D and QLC have also had a huge impact on NAND pricing. It's not clear how many more such tricks the vendors have up their sleeves.

Any trained monkey can extrapolate trends. The value is in identifying the underlying factors driving those trends and determining for how long & to what extent they still hold and which new factors might come into play.