EDIT: Forgot the links, fixed.
endyen :
It's time for a history lesson.
AMD's suit was filed just after Intel had been found to have contravened Japan's anti-trust laws. The A64s had been in production for just over 2 years. The opteron was growing slowly, but had less than a 10% market share. The A64s were going nowhere. They had the same marketshare that the athlonxp chips had had.
Fab 30 was slogging along at ~ 7k WSPM.
Filing the suit put Intel under a lot of scrutiny.
In the six months following the filing, A64's market share jumped to 24%, while opterons crossed the 15% barrier, and AMD actually sold a recordable market share in laptop computers. Fab 30 was closing on 20k WSPM, thier theoretical limit, but fab 36 was just around the corner.
Turpit, any time you get above 75% of theoretical, it's acceptable to say you are at capacity.
With a few re-alienments, fab 30 was actually able to do almost 30k wafer starts per month, for the last few months before fab36 came fully online.
During the first two years of A64, Intel's anti-trust tactics screwed AMD out of about 10%+ of market share.
Maybe that extra $10B would have helped AMD's purchase of Ati. There might even have been enough to help out with R&D.
Click to expand
To begin, even though I just wasted 10 days of my lifes precious little spare time digging through the internet for reputable sources to provide the most accurate information for the above charts (read: NOT the Enquirer or Crapipedia) they are far, far from complete.
Some of the missing information includes but is not limited to:
1984 AMD opens fab 14
1985 AMD opens fab 15
1995 AMD fab 25 begins large scale production
Q4 1999 AMD opens Fab 30
2001 AMD initiates conversion of fab 25 to flash memory
Q3 2001 Gateway drops AMD
Q3 2002 AMD closes Fab 14 and 15
Q4 2005 AMD opens fab 36
That said, its time to for
your history lesson. AMDs suit was filed 1 1/2 years
AFTER the Japanese FTC raided Intels japan offices.
That event which actually "...put Intel under a lot of scrutiny.",
not AMDs suits
AMD simultainiously filed suits in both the US and Japan on 27 June 2005 and 30 June 2005 respectively,
3 months AFTER the Japanese FTCs ruling, not "....just after...", and, they filed those suits over 10 years AFTER the last major battle between themselves and Intel, the final ruling of which favored Intel to the tune of $40 mil. In other words, looked at from ONE perspective, "Once bitten, twice shy": AMD had their hands slapped once for sticking them into the proverbial cookie jar, and learned their lesson, but saw a favorable opportunity when it presented itself, and took advantage of it to try and sneak another cookie
As to the ":any time you get above 75% of theoretical, it's acceptable to say you are at capacity...", All I can say is I dont know where you got your education, but I see where you are getting this "...any time you get above 75% of theoretical, it's acceptable to say you are at capacity..." stuff. Let me just say, that when I earned my degree, 76% was NOT "at capacity", by any manufacturers standards. For a fixed base manufacturer, having 24% of their equipment idle is under capacity, and unacceptable, unless they are amortizing it or upgrading it. Even if that is the case, it is still costing them overhead while not producing revenue..in other words a net sum loss. Even if they are still taking write offs on depreciation. If equipment is
not producing, it is costing. In the 90s, something like 12.5% idle was considered acceptable, but only for PMC. The last time I checked manproc pubs, 9~5% is the goal. Its been a few years, so that may have changed, but I am pretty confident that it hasnt droped to 1/4 or 24%. At no time in modern history has a quarter of the epuiment idling been considered either "at capacity" or acceptable......that is right up until the PR department aka proffesional liars step in to spin mode.
On to the issue of "screwed AMD out of about 10%+ ", once again, the lack of understanding of the market rears its ugly head.
THE MARKET IS NOT FIXED.
-First, the market is, has been, and will, for the forseeable future continue to constantly expand, with total sales/demand continually increasing YoY
-Second, from the mid 90s as BOTH non x86 compatable and x86 compatable manufacturers withdrew from CPU market, those sudden voids in manufacturing, i,e, market share was consumed by BOTH AMD and Intel.
During that time, when AMD wasnt gaining share
against Intel, or being 'screwed' "out of about 10%+", as you would have it, AMD
was in fact expanding its production. Regardless of the fact that it was not gaining share (which are
relative sales)
against Intel, its sales
were increasing QoQ and YoY as other competitors withdrew from the market AND the market expanded. AMD was "screwed" out of nothing, in fact, given their total market share vs Intels during those times, their rate of expansion was comparable to Intels. There was no "extra $10 billion" as AMD was in a constant race just to keep up with
itself.
The facts that they:
-Opened 3 fabs over 10 years (later converting the rapidily obsoleced fab 25 to flash memory production)
-Continually updated those fabs to both smaller lithographic nodes AND increased wafer diameters - all of which resulted in increased production
-went to an industry leading manufacturing process, APM, which allowed them to keep shipments up while Fab 36 was down
all demonstrate that AMD was experiancing ever increasing demand for its products. Even when the tech "bubble" burst in 2001, the overall market continued to expand, albeit at a reduced rate. The fact that the increased demand AMD experianced was only proportional rather than greater than Intels is moot as AMD was barely able to keep up with the demand they had courtesy of the above named growing market and market left open by bail outs, let alone produce enough over that to actually take market share from Intel. Frankly, considering how the market expanded, the fact that AMD was able to hold 15ish percent for so long (and even expand to the 20+ percent share during FY2000) is amazing in itself as well as a tribute to them. And that period included the K5 and K6 series, niether of which were barn burners.
Regardless of whether that may or may not have been amazing, as far as market share in those first two years of A64, you neglect to note that prior to A 64,:
A) AMD was producing K7.
B) Prior to K7, AMD was producing K6. Not exactly the CPU worlds greatest CPU nor a stellar reputation builder..though Im sure any AMD employee would argue that. In other words, AMD did not start to build its reputation as a "solid" CPU manufacturer until only 2 years prior to the release of A64. Prior to Athlon (K7), AMD was considered a "bargain basement manufacturer", for those who could do with.....less. (((K5 was no prize either, but thats another story)))
C) "Intel Inside" was in full swing
D) The enthusiast market, the only consumers who actually knew who AMD was, was infintesimally smaller than it is now, populated by a significantly greater percentage people who knew what they were doing, as opposed to the enthusiast segment as it exists today, populated by kiddies who make their choices based on the color of the packaging....i.e 'fanboys'
In other words, A64 had to build its own reputation in order to build its sales...a process which takes time. In this day and age of vending machine CPUs, it takes about 2 quarters, but back then, before the fanboys, it took much longer. And, back then, AMD was not exactly spewing forth the cash to combat Intels advertising with like kind.
Furthermore, recent AMD developements:
-Purchase of ATI
-Signature of a Memorandum of Understanding with SemiIndia in Dec 2005 to partner with the purpose of developing a $3Bil fab in India
-Contracting of Chartered Semi , which in june 2006 shipped its first AMD CPUs, to cover increased demands
-As of early 2007 was working with M+W Zander to move forward with plans for fab 4X in Luther Forrest, NY State
....reinforce that until only a short time ago, AMD was well established on the fast track courtesy of K7 and K8, and in spite of any alleged wrong doing on Intels part.
Which brings us to why AMDs market jumped to 24%.....which had nothing to do with the suit, or any sudden change in alledged behavior on Intels part. It had to do with:
Performance
Reliability
Value
Reputation
All those things which AMD had acheived via K7 and K8.
Just as C2D struck a blow to AMD because it was a significant advance over then current products, A 64/X2 struck a blow to Intel because it was an undeniably better product, the general public (by the time of X2) was becoming alerted to the fact that AMD existed, and AMD was finally shedding their reputation as a "bargain" manufacturer. You, as someone who knows something about CPUs, should be well aquainted with the fact that in the early days of the publics "AMD awareness" the 'unwashed' didnt want to "risk" their money on "AMD, those other guys" CPUs. AMD chose to rebuild its public reputation the hard way, and once it did, its product sold.
To sum the history lesson up, that Intel "screwed" AMD is the easy "way out" of explaining AMDs woes, but not even remotely accurate. AMDs short history shows that prior to K7,
- they were a second rate manufacturer,
- they were generally unknown
- where they were known their reputation was at best, second fiddle
- they waited until very late in the game to fund advertising to combat that reputation
- they had to actually produce a processor which would allow them to combat that reputation
- they had to overcome consumer resistance from Intels highly successfull Intel Inside campaign
- they were constantly expanding, improving and increasing shipments yet they still lacked capacity to achieve their own goals of 30% market share (even though they put up 3 fabs in 10 years) due to the fact THAT THE MARKET ITSELF IS CONSTANTLY EXPANDING
- they were never in a position to generate revenue significantly greater than they did through increases in shipments
You can quote a few select parts of history to accentuate an opinion if you want, but all things considered, I disagree.
supporting links, in no particular order:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070131/amd-intel-shipments.htm
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20060727/intel-amd-marketshare.htm
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20080122223915_Intel_Gains_Market_Share_Thanks_to_Demand_Towards_Speedier_Microprocessors.html
http://www.news.com/Intels-market-share-rises-on-AMDs-problems/2100-1006_3-6178921.html
http://www.news.com/AMD-gains-market-share%2C-but-so-does-Intel/2100-1006_3-5557740.html?tag=nw.2
http://www.news.com/AMDs-market-share-gains-accelerate/2100-1006_3-5916167.html?tag=nw.3
http://www.news.com/Intel-gains-server-share%2C-AMD-gets-notebook-boost/2100-1006_3-6130795.html?tag=nw.4
http://www.news.com/AMDs-slow-but-steady-market-share-gains/2100-1006_3-5435391.html?tag=nw.5
http://www.news.com/Intel%2C-AMD-comfy-during-fourth-quarter/2100-1006_3-5152255.html?tag=nw.6
http://www.mdronline.com/mpr_public/editorials/edit12_15.html
http://www.my-esm.com/story/OEG20020125S0066
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584-6030509.html
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20070802231958.html
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584-5765844.html
http://www.itworld.com/Man/2699/intel-antitrust-history-080213/
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9004846
http://hkonline.blogspot.com/2005/12/fabrication-plant-wat-every-indian-has.html
http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=IWSF4RQ0GTWCKQSNDLQSKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=18306290