SSDs Have Bleak Future, Says Researchers

[Guest]

fast forward to 2024, really...is apple still in business? does Giggle own my DNA and is there a street view of it?

 

[javaskull]

2024! that's silly. 12 years from now. HDDs suck. I just installed a SSD and it was the fastiest easiest upgrade I have ever done. Installed the sw from the disk, copied the old 74gb HDD to the new 250gb SSD (only 30 minutes!) via usb, ripped the old drive out, slapped in the SSD and I was booting windows 7 in 10 secs flat. Compared to the noisy unreliable 10,000 rpm raptor the new ssd is quieter, uses less power, and is much faster.

 

[Guest]

The fundamental assumption of such biased conclusion is that SSD must replace HDD as the sole means of data storage device. But what both SSD industry AND HDD industry realised is that, SSD and HDD will rather complement each other than compete head to head.

The fundamental physics determined: SSD will NEVER catch up HDD in terms of areal density (with is tightly associated with costs). and HDD cannot scale further in terms of performance due to the mechanical draw back.

think of this example if you don't understand how SSD and HDD works. SSD is like asking 100 students to copy a 100 books, HDD is like asking 1 student to copy a 100 books. While the speed for scenario 1 is 100x faster than the later, you also has to provide 100 desk/chair/pen as an extra cost. So it's eventually performance in exchange of density (capacity/$). the book to be copied here represents the data storage cell which in both SSD and HDD case will benefit from semiconductor technology improvement. The student represents the read/write circuitry and stuff which is 1 set for 1 HDD and 1 set for (almost) every cell on SSD.

 

[billiardicus]

I think it's pretty pointless to make predictions about technology 10+ years into the future. 10 years ago, I got my first cell phone, discovered MP3's, and I couldn't imagine how I could ever fill up my 12gb hard drive on my laptop.

 

[groundrat]

So what? Even if NAND tops out at say, 520 gb and at current read/write and maximum cycles we will still have a purpose fpr them.

 

[WhiteLotus]

Disagree that SSD have bleak future. Just because you can't go above a certain threshold doesn't mean the tech is doomed. Let's just say the biggest SSD they can make is 3TB (just as an example). People already are thrilled with their 256GB SSD's. You increase that space to 1TB and they'll be in heaven.

Also, I realize this article is older, but Apple's fusion drive is intriguing (and no it's not a hybrid drive) because it uses a small SSD along with a larger HDD. A layer of software moves the most commonly used apps onto the SSD, giving you not quite SSD speeds but with HDD's larger capacities.

This fusion technology that Apple is using has been used in Enterprise for years but has never been exposed to mainstream users. If you can use a small SSD and get SSD-like performance from it, it's not really important to have massive SSD's.

The only reason the article has any credibility is because from a business perspective, companies won't invest in developing the technology any further if they can't make oodles of money from it. If the biggest SSD were only 3TB and it ended at that, eventually the costs to make them would drop, prices would drop, and profit margins would drop. Low profit margins rarely look good to businesses.

 

[Guest]

This is good news, because in 12 years we'll have something better and noone will want bigger and better SSDs anyway.

 

[Guest]

12 years ago:

HD televisions were too expensive - now, everyone has 5 in their home (a la Marty McFly).
Dialup was the majority of internet service plans - now, dial what?
Laptop computers covered your entire lap - now, even the term laptop is going out of style.
Cassette Tape Players were still installed in vehicles - now, we're almost to the point where kids ask, what is a CD?

In 12 years we'll be able to store the entire library of congress in the space of a thumbnail clipping and read and write to it at 10 times (or greater) the speed we do it now. And where is my hovercraft...

 

[Guest]

i eard the same thing about cpu speeds when they were making 80486 dx2 at 66 Mhz

predictions in tecnologie are as good as gambling in casinos

 

[ohmibuffet]

Researchers with nothing better to do that make useless predictions have an even bleaker future.