I'm a bit cynical of "MMO X is doomed/failing" articles....this one caught my eye, and I got to thinking about what we have REALLY SEEN from SWTOR. So here I go with my analysis.
1) EA made the claim of 1.7 million customers on Feb 1, the numbers were pulled in the mid-to-later part of the month and reported later...This was pure Marketing spin for EA, they did not have ANY PAYING SUBSCRIBERS at that time, only credit card numbers on accounts as part of the registration process to get your free month from purchasing the game.
2) Marketing spin from EA ignored, SWTOR had 1.7 million in game sales wiht registered accounts consuing their FREE month for buying the client liecense. It never had 1.7 million subscribers, but it does have 1.3 million PAYING subscribers.
Here's how I break it down:
In the end of Jan, before the first free month was over, EA declared that SWTOR had 1.7 million 'active' subscribers, which included those who were operating on the free month. That said, at least 400,000 people who purchased the game in Dec/Jan did not maintain active PAYING subscriptions at the time the financial report information was taken (end of March).
It is clear that SWTOR failed to retain 400,000 game purchasers as subscribers, but it cannot be said that SWTOR has lost 400K subscribers. This sounds like the same thing, but they are very different when looking at the big picture. According to most of what we read here and elsewhere, an MMO is doing pretty well if it converts even as little as 33% of its sales numbers as subscribing customers.
...ladies and gentlement, please put the coffins away...SWTOR is going to be with us for a good while.