News Taiwan ready to discuss 2nm transfer to U.S. following Trump's comments

[Admin]

The National Science and Technology Council Minister says the country could discuss the possibility of transferring 2 nm to TSMC's fabs in the U.S. after mass production is initiated in Taiwan.

Taiwan ready to discuss 2nm transfer to U.S. following Trump's comments : Read more

 

[edzieba]

Brazil serves as an example of the effect import tariffs have on domestic manufacture of electronics. Or rather, the lack thereof.

 

[punkncat]

Meaning to say that the (possible) intended effect of raising tariffs might be to bring production back to the US to pay US workers AND save market competitiveness?
Wow, maybe the sky isn't falling. 😉

 

[P.Amini]

Brazil serves as an example of the effect import tariffs have on domestic manufacture of electronics. Or rather, the lack thereof.

Brazil and US are totally different in every aspect when it comes to high-tech electronics. Beside they are very different economically. So probably not the best comparison.

 

[spongiemaster]

Meaning to say that the (possible) intended effect of raising tariffs might be to bring production back to the US to pay US workers AND save market competitiveness?
Wow, maybe the sky isn't falling. 😉

For what purpose? US unemployment is at historically low rates right now. All these manufacturing jobs we bring back that aren't needed are only going to result in higher prices for all of us just like they would with tariffs. If the goal is making us all pay more for everything, we might as well go the tariff route as then it can somewhat be dictated through legislation where the money goes.

 

[bit_user]

Trump criticized the Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science Act and said that import tariffs would be a better incentive for chipmakers to build fabs in the U.S. than grants, loan guarantees, and tax credits. If he implements such tariffs, it would force TSMC to transfer more of its advanced nodes to its Arizona facility.

First, tariffs are less certain than grants. They can be rescinded with little advance notice, if they turn out to have a large impact on the economy. Also, exceptions are granted for them, and it's hard to predict who will get exceptions and for what. These areas of uncertainty are perceived as risks, by the investors that would be needed to fund the requisite domestic capacity build-out.

Second, grants solve the problem of capital that's needed to fund these big investments. Attracting private sector loans is not only more difficult, but also more expensive, since they're medium/long-range investments and somewhat risky.

Finally, tariffs don't force TSMC to do anything. Especially since adding semiconductor fabrication capacity happens on such a long time scale, it's anybody's guess what would happen. I'd feel more comfortable predicting that the biggest US-based consumers of TSMC N2 silicon would start building datacenters in Mexico and Canada (or expanding existing ones), in order to serve the US market. For those in the US relying on TSMC silicon, we might just have to either pay more or live with an older node. At this point, you're talking about a minority slice of AMD's market.

 

[Notton]

The last time US did tariffs, it caused the great depression.

There's a thing in economics called "comparative advantage".
It's not just about lower costs to manufacture goods, it's also about R&D, engineering, raw materials, man-power & expertise, etc.

 

[punkncat]

The last time US did tariffs, it caused the great depression.

There's a thing in economics called "comparative advantage".
It's not just about lower costs to manufacture goods, it's also about R&D, engineering, raw materials, man-power & expertise, etc.

Of all the main contributors, I feel like Smoot- Hawley was the least of them. Perhaps icing on the cake. To say "caused" is giving it more credit than it was due in light of all else that happened to be going on at the time. Perhaps, sort of a knee jerk reaction rather than fully contributing causation. Nice reference though. I grant +1 interwebz to use as you see fit.

 

[stonecarver]

bit_user​

I have to say I admire your wisdom on many subjects and you have called me out where I didn't quite fully understand a thread here or there and and you kindly corrected me and I thank you along the way here on Toms.

These tariffs that like you said we still don't know the good or the bad that the fallout will develop coming I the near future just put a cold shiver down my spine. Back in 2021 there was a post here on Tom's joking about covid and saying how lucky were not to be the kids in the photo posted to the thread who were playing socker over in China, believing we're safe.

That was painful on the whole world.

I feel like this will be the covid of economics if it gets out of control.

Also makes me think about all those news stories on Toms where smugglers got busted trying to bring thousands of CPU's into China to avoid customs over there.

Will this be the norm here in the unreality/ reality of our tomorrow. Man goes to Mexico and busted for 300 CPU's in the cavity of a surf board at the boarder. News's at 11.

 

[punkncat]

Keep in mind that further muddy water comes of NAFTA in the case of the aforementioned scenario.

 

[bit_user]

Thanks for the compliment!

These tariffs that like you said we still don't know the good or the bad that the fallout will develop coming I the near future just put a cold shiver down my spine.

I'm not too worried, because I'm still quite skeptical they'll happen as advertised. I think there's not the political will to do something so inflationary, when inflation is clearly top-of-mind for a lot of people.

I see high, across-the-board tariffs mostly as a negotiating tactic. We can see this most clearly, if we look at what's happened with Mexico and Canada, just in the past few days.

The other purpose they serve is to enable further tax cuts on income and capital gains, but then if you start cutting more holes in the tariffs than Swiss cheese, they don't even do that very well.

 

[bit_user]

Keep in mind that further muddy water comes of NAFTA in the case of the aforementioned scenario.

Didn't USMCA replace NAFTA? That's what Wikipedia says:

"The Agreement between the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA)[1][Note 1] is a free trade agreement among the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) implemented in 1994, ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Mexico–Canada_Agreement
​

Perhaps the biggest distinction is probably that Trump negotiated USMCA, himself. However, If you look at the recent news about tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, it seems even USMCA isn't sacrosanct.

 

[Flayed]

I read somewhere that TSMCs 2nm is too expensive even for Apple

 

[bit_user]

I read somewhere that TSMCs 2nm is too expensive even for Apple

Their latest series of laptop chips (the M4 generation) are made on N3E, which is a second generation "3 nm" class TSMC node. I haven't been following the news about N2 nodes closely enough to speculate why they didn't use it for that. For all I know, it could be more about timing or production volume than cost.

What we often see is smaller chips, like phone SoCs, being the first to use new nodes. Because they're smaller, the high wafer costs tend to be less of an issue, as do the higher defect rates. However, not even Apple's latest phone SoC (A18) is made on a 2 nm node.

 

[Flayed]

Their latest series of laptop chips (the M4 generation) are made on N3E, which is a second generation "3 nm" class TSMC node. I haven't been following the news about N2 nodes closely enough to speculate why they didn't use it for that. For all I know, it could be more about timing or production volume than cost.

What we often see is smaller chips, like phone SoCs, being the first to use new nodes. Because they're smaller, the high wafer costs tend to be less of an issue, as do the higher defect rates. However, not even Apple's latest phone SoC (A18) is made on a 2 nm node.

I found it.

Apple Orders M5 Chips From TSMC Ahead of Late 2025 Production

Apple has ordered M5 chips from TSMC as the company begins production development of its next-generation processor for future devices, claims a new...

www.macrumors.com

The rumor is Apple's M5 won't use N2 either which begs the question who will be the first to use it?

 

[jp7189]

First, tariffs are less certain than grants. They can be rescinded with little advance notice, if they turn out to have a large impact on the economy. Also, exceptions are granted for them, and it's hard to predict who will get exceptions and for what. These areas of uncertainty are perceived as risks, by the investors that would be needed to fund the requisite domestic capacity build-out.

Second, grants solve the problem of capital that's needed to fund these big investments. Attracting private sector loans is not only more difficult, but also more expensive, since they're medium/long-range investments and somewhat risky.

Finally, tariffs don't force TSMC to do anything. Especially since adding semiconductor fabrication capacity happens on such a long time scale, it's anybody's guess what would happen. I'd feel more comfortable predicting that the biggest US-based consumers of TSMC N2 silicon would start building datacenters in Mexico and Canada (or expanding existing ones), in order to serve the US market. For those in the US relying on TSMC silicon, we might just have to either pay more or live with an older node. At this point, you're talking about a minority slice of AMD's market.

They aren't mutually exclusive. No reason not to offer one end a carrot while you whamp on the other end with a stick.

 

[celilo]

The threat of tariffs is a tool to try to get what you want without having to actually implement them.

Additionally, having a concentration of high-end microchip manufacturing in Taiwan might be a risky venture due to China's stance. I think this has more to do with security than economics.

 

[Dvlp]

When I skimmed this, my first reaction was "TSMC isn't even operational for 5nm in Arizona" but apparently thats been rectified as of a couple months ago. From what I'm reading, it's capable of taiwanese production capacity at 4nm. (Impressive)

TSMC's Arizona plant was the result of the Biden admin's legislation, no? I guess a threat by force via tariff is fine after they have some operational capacity here, but I worry that it won't be effective, especially if China encroaches on Taiwan. I guess if they do, we have the plant here.

 

[usertests]

When I skimmed this, my first reaction was "TSMC isn't even operational for 5nm in Arizona" but apparently thats been rectified as of a couple months ago. From what I'm reading, it's capable of taiwanese production capacity at 4nm. (Impressive)

This N2 spat amounted to nothing. The US was already going to get these nodes relatively late according to their stated plans. These are still good nodes (a budget office chip built on the budget N4C node could satisfy >90% of people for many years). It's unclear that the US is anywhere near achieving self-sufficiency because of other parts of the supply chain not directly involving fabs.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/t...ona-fab-40-billion-investment-and-3nm-by-2026

They plan to go to N3 in Arizona, and probably N2. At this point I'm wondering about A16 since that is going to be an interesting N2 variant from an efficiency standpoint, with the addition of backside power delivery.

 

[bit_user]

TSMC's Arizona plant was the result of the Biden admin's legislation, no?

TSMC got a CHIPS grant, but the Arizona plant was planned well before that, during Trump's first administration. Thier CHIPS grant is for something even newer, but I'm not sure exactly what. TSMC has other facilities in the US, but I think the last one, before AZ plant, was about 2 decades earlier.

I think it's interesting that the AZ plant can build Zen 5 CPUs. I wonder if that factored into AMD's decision to use N4P for the main Zen 5 CCDs, rather than to go with N3B. Also, I noticed even the Google SoC in latest generation of their Pixel phones is using a N4 node.

 

[bit_user]

These are still good nodes (a budget office chip built on the budget N4C node could satisfy >90% of people for many years). It's unclear that the US is anywhere near achieving self-sufficiency because of other parts of the supply chain not directly involving fabs.

Yes to both of these. However, N4 might not be competitive in AI for very long. Especially in key uses, like AI-powered combat drones. Even for far more pedestrian uses, having to take a huge step back in AI capability would be disruptive to industry and the broader economy.

At this point I'm wondering about A16 since that is going to be an interesting N2 variant from an efficiency standpoint, with the addition of backside power delivery.

They're saying backside power will add such significant cost & complexity that I think they're planning to keep it optional on even smaller nodes than that.