News Taiwan Security Bureau: No Need to Destroy TSMC's Fabs If China Invades

[Admin]

Sanctions by the U.S. and Europe could be as devastating as bombing TSMC's fabs if China ceases them.

Taiwan Security Bureau: No Need to Destroy TSMC's Fabs If China Invades : Read more

 

[btmedic04]

yeah, i wouldnt leave any functioning equipment behind in that scenario as it would only be a matter of time before it was copied and deployed elsewhere. the safest bet would be to destroy it in place

 

[elforeign]

yeah, i wouldnt leave any functioning equipment behind in that scenario as it would only be a matter of time before it was copied and deployed elsewhere. the safest bet would be to destroy it in place

I think you missed the point of the article. It's not as easy as taking the fabs and keeping the lights on. The semiconductor business is much more globally interdependent and requires symmetric cooperation amongst the supply chain for the end product to be commercially viable.

China can invade and take the hen, but it won't do much with it other than comment how nice it looks.

 

[btmedic04]

I think you missed the point of the article. It's not as easy as taking the fabs and keeping the lights on. The semiconductor business is much more globally interdependent and requires symmetric cooperation amongst the supply chain for the end product to be commercially viable.

China can invade and take the hen, but it won't do much with it other than comment how nice it looks.

i disagree. 7nm wasnt projected to enter production in china for some time after restrictions were imposed by the US, yet theyre currently producing a close copy of TSMC 7nm

China's SMIC Shipping 7nm Chips, Reportedly Copied TSMC's Tech | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com)

If you leave 5nm and 3nm production tools there, China will use them to reverse engineer a way to make their own 5nm and 3nm production lines with the technology they currently have. to believe that they wouldn't find a way to make it work for them is naive given they have decades of experience when it comes to copying things, and its only a matter of time before they have their own version of ASML for tool production

 

[-Fran-]

Obligatory:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q


Regards

 

[thisisaname]

Of all the reasons for China to invade Taiwan their semiconductor manufacturing prowess is the last thing they would consider.

 

[InvalidError]

If you leave 5nm and 3nm production tools there, China will use them to reverse engineer a way to make their own 5nm and 3nm production lines with the technology they currently have. to believe that they wouldn't find a way to make it work for them is naive given they have decades of experience when it comes to copying things, and its only a matter of time before they have their own version of ASML for tool production

As the article points out, you need ultra-pure materials to feed those fabs, having the cutting-edge equipment alone is not enough. China duplicating TSMC's equipment would also duplicate the requirements for the same ultra-refined input materials that have to be imported from a bunch of other countries. No supplies in, no wafers out.

 

[-Fran-]

As the article points out, you need ultra-pure materials to feed those fabs, having the cutting-edge equipment alone is not enough. China duplicating TSMC's equipment would also duplicate the requirements for the same ultra-refined input materials that have to be imported from a bunch of other countries. No supplies in, no wafers out.

Some strategists know: they don't need to be equal and just be close enough.

China does have a manufacturing advantage in quanity, so they can concede the edge. Remember Germany vs USSR in WW2. Yes, in today's world it's way more nuanced, but numbers will always triump quality (after a certain thereshold) in War, sorry.

Regards.

 

[InvalidError]

Some strategists know: they don't need to be equal and just be close enough.

When you deal with nm-scale structures where one misplaced atom can spell the difference between working and dead silicon, "close" is not good enough. There are reasons why many chemicals and components used in bleeding-edge semiconductors have only one supplier in the whole world capable of delivering the required specs. We are almost at the point where semiconductor manufacturing will require materials filtered down to specific stable isotopes to prevent premature failures from atomic decay.

 

[btmedic04]

As the article points out, you need ultra-pure materials to feed those fabs, having the cutting-edge equipment alone is not enough. China duplicating TSMC's equipment would also duplicate the requirements for the same ultra-refined input materials that have to be imported from a bunch of other countries. No supplies in, no wafers out.

to assume china doesnt already have those materials is foolish. theyve clearly stated that their goal is technological independence

 

[jkflipflop98]

When you deal with nm-scale structures where one misplaced atom can spell the difference between working and dead silicon, "close" is not good enough. There are reasons why many chemicals and components used in bleeding-edge semiconductors have only one supplier in the whole world capable of delivering the required specs. We are almost at the point where semiconductor manufacturing will require materials filtered down to specific stable isotopes to prevent premature failures from atomic decay.

Buddy, they've built a literal exact copy of Paris, France complete with Eiffel tower and everything. They'll figure out how to refine chemicals or they'll simply steal another companies' BKM for doing so and clone it.

Not destroying the equipment and letting China simply walk in and take it for themselves also gives them the proprietary designs for all the world's leading designers like Nvidia and AMD on a silver platter. I'm sure they wouldn't appreciate that.

 

[SSGBryan]

China doesn't have anywhere near enough logistical tail to get military forces across the straits. 16Knt troop ships means a 12 hour jaunt (minimum) from the mainland to Taiwan, which will be under fire the entire way. At best, they could land a brigade's worth of troops.

They have an air force that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since the Korean War.

They have a army that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since 1979, and most of their military equipment is based on Russian designs - what they have designed hasn't been proven in combat.

They have a navy that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since the 1st Sino-Japanese war in 1895.

That is before one factors in the fact that their naval aircraft have a breathtakingly short range (which means they would have to get very, very close to Taiwan to start with. Currently, they can't do a full load-out and keep their range).

The People's Liberation Army (and it's navy) are simply not capable of crossing the straits.

 

[Giroro]

China doesn't have anywhere near enough logistical tail to get military forces across the straits. 16Knt troop ships means a 12 hour jaunt (minimum) from the mainland to Taiwan, which will be under fire the entire way. At best, they could land a brigade's worth of troops.

They have an air force that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since the Korean War.

They have a army that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since 1979, and most of their military equipment is based on Russian designs - what they have designed hasn't been proven in combat.

They have a navy that hasn't conducted large scale combat operations since the 1st Sino-Japanese war in 1895.

That is before one factors in the fact that their naval aircraft have a breathtakingly short range (which means they would have to get very, very close to Taiwan to start with. Currently, they can't do a full load-out and keep their range).

The People's Liberation Army (and it's navy) are simply not capable of crossing the straits.

China has 1/6 the world's population and over half of its heavy industry. It's reasonable to think they can figure out how to Zerg rush a tiny defenseless island.
A 12 hour jaunt means the West has about 13 hours to obliterate 100 Exabytes of world-ending strategic advantage.
Destroying the equipment would be nice too, but destroying the data is a existential crisis to both Taiwan and anybody else who doesn't want to live in a prison camp of a communist dictatorship.

 

[Co BIY]

Of all the reasons for China to invade Taiwan their semiconductor manufacturing prowess is the last thing they would consider.

thisaname is correct on this.

"Reunification" would be a priority for the CCP even if Taiwan's only world leading industry was eel farming.

A totalitarian state cannot long abide a nearby example of a successful free society, especially when comprised of it's same people. [Similar to another current Eurasian war.] Totalitarians going to totalize, its the system.

If the goal was just to dominate the sweet sweet semi-conductor market then it would have been much easier to stick with the friendlier status quo of a dozen years back. Required tech transfer for market access, importing tech workers, intellectual property theft, sending masses of students to overseas research universities and deep market-based integration of economies was working well to rapidly develop mainland Chinese capabilities. The current confrontational/aggressive policies are hindering the growth of mainland Chinese semi-conductor capability, but that is not the goal of the policies.

 

[Integr8d]

Frag the fabs and bring the people here. They’ll be safe. China can have the island.

 

[COLGeek]

Thank you to all who contributed. Closing now.