The great future's decline?

[eden]

Incoming rant:

Following on a rather very depressing sunday, reflecting on the basic future of the interest in entertainment in general, and where each media innovation is heading, all consequent of the shock of how people reacted to an entertainment movie Matrix Revolutions was to me, I started wondering more specifically about my own interests, the gaming animation field, or more widely, the film animation field.

Where are we heading?
Are we going to hit a ceiling soon?
The graphics industry is evolving, granted, and our search for the true CG feel is stepping closer. But now that we crossed 2d to 3D, the maximum we could harness as reality is made of, where do we go from there?
If we were back in the Doom II days, I certainly wouldn't be worrying. But now, I look at where we are and where in a few years we'll be. We're certainly going to hit a visual reality ceiling soon, are we not?
And if we do, where does the interest go? In the gameplay and general originality, right?
But what about that especially?
Just how far will the creative minds bringing games go later? Am I the only one worrying there will be a serious shortage of creativity, originality and innovation? We've mixed enough genres as it is, from Action RPG to static to real time strategy.

Then there is of course hardware innovation. Cards soon to become ultimate rendering machines. I know we'll get slowly there. Likely my worry is more bound on the gaming field and the movie industry with the animation. I am worried about how movies will go on with the animation, if the entire ideas are becoming predictable. What good will it be to make that ultimate movie with the best effects if people have seen it all?
Are we taking it for granted or is predictability going to take place so much more soon? Will the creative minds continue finding weird storylines, driving other people in the movie sector to do their job, whether in the audio, filming or editing?

So, while my mind is still down on this, and I could write on, I'll leave here, asking you guys, who has an answer, a daring plausible one?
Is there really one? Or is humanity truly moving to such a world, in the entertainment sector? Or maybe this has always existed, and as long as we get batches of young generations, there will always be the "new" factor on them? Is that the real audience in the end, the stimulating and driving factor behind evolving the industry of entertainment?

WHO here dares to answer me with a clear-cut view?
This isn't to act mighty. But truly, who can really answer such unsure yet grim possibility?

I love how we're going at the present, don't get me wrong, but since Revolutions and the basic angry reaction, it has truly put into question in my eyes, the idea of entertainment and people becoming overjudging. Taking for granted is inevitable, so to who do we create?

--
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.html" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>This just in, over 56 no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol: <P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1><EM>Edited by Eden on 11/10/03 09:44 PM.</EM></FONT></P>

 

[Crashman]

You're right! When games get to the point of being photo-realistic, what's next, stagnation?

<font color=blue>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to a hero as big as Crashman!</font color=blue>
<font color=red>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to an ego as large as Crashman's!</font color=red>

 

[Woodman]

No, "stimulation" .

Hardcore movie, not for kids:
<A HREF="http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/avp/featurette/" target="_new">movie</A>

 

[eden]

I'm usually happy to see your rants, so I did something to express meself.

Good to see you also feel that way.
It's depressing, I know, but damn, someone has to be aware, right?

--
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.html" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>This just in, over 56 no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

 

[TheGreatGrapeApe]

I think you are forgetting the idea of gameplay. As much as the Matrix and StarWars, and Toy Story were cutting edge. Making all movies look like and act like them sucked. Along came things like Something about Mary, the Blair Witch Project, The Ring, Seven, Kill Bill, the Usual Suspects.

Once you have photo-realistic, then you move to other aspects to improve (one of the reasons that the shader effects have some interest IMO [making old games get a little last squeeze of fun]). Also remember that there are a few 3D technologies out there that are coming out soon, and who knows what they will need, just think of the computations required for TRUE 3D gaming.

One thing I've learned with age, never underestimate the future, and never think that there is nowhere else to go.

Like someone here has as their sig. even Billy-noy once thought that no one would need more than 640K, you may be a little young to remember that world.

Have faith!


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! <A HREF="http://www.redgreen.com" target="_new"><font color=green>RED</font color=green> <font color=red>GREEN</font color=red></A> GA to SK

 

[eden]

And the wise Architect Ape comes!
:tongue:

Hmm, Ape, that isn't the issue though, it's if gameplay itself, and the creativity of the game that matter. Lately not many games are coming out with new gameplay innovations. Unreal 2 didn't bring much although I loved it. Deus Ex 2 should be quite interesting, although the idea base is already made and now it's all evolution.

And that worries me. I hope I am wrong, but we'll have to see if in 6-7 years the gaming world is going to remain strong and new ideas will pop.

Making all movies look like and act like them sucked. Along came things like Something about Mary, the Blair Witch Project, The Ring, Seven, Kill Bill, the Usual Suspects.

Whatever do you mean by that?


--
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.html" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>This just in, over 56 no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

 

[russmon]

My feeling is that it is a gameplay versus graphics issue for the next few years. There is no much excuse for new games not to get a 10 out of 10 for graphics. However, gameplay is often ignored or not as polished as it could be. Also, people want much more value out of a game that costs $50 these days (I personally don't like the "short by sweet" games.)

So not seeing Revolutions, here is my analogy:

A critic sees Revolutions, he will say the effects are good, the action is good, but the acting/storyline is stale. A Matrix fan sees it and will understand the action/effects will be good going in but will be looking for the deeper meaning to the storyline (i.e. gameplay).

I saw Reloaded five times - some for the effects but more for the meaning (i.e. gameplay). Overall for the experience (or should I say my experience). And I am not stupid. Many critics hated the movie.

Graphics will hit a ceiling just as much as the movie industry has. The gaming/entertainment industry will need to shift to focus on the "experience" that someone has. Experience = graphics + gameplay + value (all three being equally important). That is why MMORPG are doing pretty well, the graphics are the same but the experience is changing.

I could rant longer but my mind in mush.

 

[fragglefart]

I wouldnt worry about it mate, as far as CG goes, realism is old hat- its all about style these days
The same will apply to games- which also benefit from the element of interactivity, and how it influences narration.

Just think, what would be the ultimate, coolest, most amazingly fun and beautiful game ever?
Are we anywhere close to that target yet?
No? Thought not!
Well there is the future of gaming for you then

............................................
Render times? You'll find me down the pub...

 

[1080jibber]

I wouldn't worry too much. The human imagination will always be expanding our definition of "new" and the wonders of today will be eclipsed both in quality AND originality someday, even if technological devlopment has periods of temporary stagnation. Even when we acheive photo realistic gaming, which will be the pinnacle for 3d graphics on a 2d platform, there will always be new challenges and both gameplay and cinematic animation will improve to the next level. In fact,r ight now, i think we are relying a bit too much on the techonology to amaze us rather than using creative ability and ingenuity. It's just like in the american civil war and world war1, the technology got ahead of the tactics. Eventually the armies adapted themselves to the new and technology were able to better utilize it, and benefitted greatly. I beleive the same will happen in entertainment too. The ability to better utilize existing technology and more reliance on imagination will happen, just give it time. When it does, both gameplay and cinematic animation will greatly improve. Yes, there will be some amount of predictability here and there, but that is a normal occurence. Predictablity and "copying" are the things that we use to benchmark the "new" and "revolutionary". Without those, everything would always seem wonderful. Hope this adds a little to the discussion, just my 2 cents.

antec 350w psu
xp 2000
asus a7n8x deluxe
512mb pc2100
ati radeon 9500 pro
wd 80gb caviar special edition
16x dvd
creative megaworks 550
nec fe991sb-bk

 

[bdaley]

Jeez dude, do you stay up at night worrying about this sh1t?

"I'm a man armed with a fork in a land of soup."

 

[ad_rach]

we'll have to see if in 6-7 years the gaming world is going to remain strong and new ideas will pop.

Well, one thing is for sure, the graphical difference between current games and games 6-7 years from now cannot possibly be as marked as the difference between current games and games from 6-7 years ago.
However, as fragglefart says "its all about style these days ", rather than the quest for realism.Just look at games like XIII.I believe that the idea of 'style' will become more prominent in future, but hopefully not at the expense of substance (cf. Max Payne).
I, like the others, do hope that the lack of scope for innovation in the graphics field pushes developers towards gameplay as a vent for their creative juices(no euphemism intended! ).My only worry is that the scope for innovation in gameplay is similarly limited, excepting gimmicky things (cf. virtual reality, steering wheels, fishing rods, all these s**tty interface fads).I for one don't view such things as 'innovation', especially since i don't think you can argue that any game can better Tetris for pure gameplay.


no matter how hard you try, you can't polish a turd. :]

 

[kinney]

I think that even when the photorealistic ceiling is hit that if you are a creative individual that you will still be in demand.
And if you arent creative, at least very good at ripping peoples ideas off like the Wachowski brothers.

IMO if you are smart enough to be involved in the low level part of photorealistic graphics, when we get there, you will certainly be able to move into a similar related field easily.. but you will still be needed. And if you are creative, that opens up even more doors no matter which avenue you take.

But I dont think 3d animation is really close to reaching its peak. We havent even had a successful sitcom based in cutting edge computer generated graphics to my knowledge.
Look at how long it took the simpsons, a cartoon to become an accepted form of art.
And 3d could certainly go further into the virtual reality realm that has kinda been a flop so far.

I think we are sooo far away from 'topping out' in the gfx realm that you will be ok for your and my lifetime..
My 2cents.

----
I just tell it like it is and some can't handle it. If your experience is different, well congratu-fukulation.
<b>I’M NOT A ATI FANBOY, I’M NOT A NV FANBOY, I’M A STABILITY FANBOY</b>