News Trump's Tariffs and Tech: Everything You Need to Know

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bit_user

Polypheme
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Whatever it takes to stop fueling terrorism needs to be done..
How about staying in one agreement that was actually working, and then Trump could use his awesome negotiating powers to get them to do (or not do) other things? Backing out of the first agreement kinda broke trust with the US and will make it that much harder to negotiate anything else. The main thing it did was make armed conflict that much more likely.

Consider that Iran is much bigger and more cohesive than Saddam Hussain's Iraq. With fewer allies willing to help us in any war, you have to ask how many US lives and trillions of $ it's really worth to quell Iran's misbehavior. I mean, nobody disagrees that Saddam was a bad guy, but few now think the 2003 Iraq war was worthwhile - especially in light of ISIS, and everything that came after.

Or, let's make it personal. Let's say it doesn't work to put war with Iran on the federal credit card, if investors lose their appetite for US Treasury bonds. So, how many $k would you be willing to pay in extra taxes? What personal sacrifices would you make?

Just to put my own take out there, I'd say that clearly Iran has been stirring up trouble. But, they're no ISIS. In fact, I don't even see them as much worse than some of our buddies, like Saudi Arabia. They both fund various terrorist groups and have basically fought proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, destroying both of those countries, in the process. It seems to me that what this whole thing is really about is Trump being suckered into doing Saudi's dirty work. Meanwhile, those guys are giving themselves a pay day, now that Iranian oil is off the market, and cutting OPEC production to jack up prices further. That's how grateful they are.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
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So US government gets $75 B in tariff revenue but consumers only pay between $45 B to $57 B in increased prices for these luxury goods.
...
Sounds like a tremendous deal for the US and our economy as $75 >($45 to 57).
So, raising taxes on businesses and consumers is somehow good for the economy, just because a minority of the revenue will come from the Chinese? If true, this would be a huge shift in the Conservative orthodoxy that raising taxes is bad for the economy.

I think it's Trump's "Midas Touch". Just don't scratch at the golden idols he's touched, lest you discover it's only gold leaf.
 
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bit_user

Polypheme
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I expect the new delay, put on the latest round, has just completely derailed the negotiations. With this one move, Trump has called his own bluff. He's acknowledged the high political cost that would result from further ratcheting up the tariffs.

So, now the Chinese can sit back and decide whether they're able & willing to weather the current level of Tariffs until November 2020 or January 2021 (depending on whether Trump wins or loses). Because, if he's unwilling to ratchet up the tariffs now, the chances he'll do it in the midst of his re-election campaign are almost nil.

I've been saying it all along: Trump's out-played his hand. China is just too big for the US to do this, alone. He needed allies, all of which he's alienated. So, all this pain will be for nothing, when the dispute eventually gets settled along the lines of restoring the status quo.
 

mihen

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I think Trump has a huge hand in China right now if he kept the threat of tariffs. Right now is the best time to pressure China with the riots in Hong Kong. Most of the Chinese economy relies on shell companies in Hong Kong and the financial center from there. Having unrest in Hong Kong and doing the wrong move there could be devastating for the middle class and top communist officials in mainland China.
The tariffs aren't really an issue for the US government with the recent tax cuts. Replacing income taxes with tariffs is a more preferable situation. If companies continue using China, then they are practically being taxed along with the people using their products.
 
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bit_user

Polypheme
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I think Trump has a huge hand in China right now if he kept the threat of tariffs. Right now is the best time to pressure China with the riots in Hong Kong. Most of the Chinese economy relies on shell companies in Hong Kong and the financial center from there. Having unrest in Hong Kong and doing the wrong move there could be devastating for the middle class and top communist officials in mainland China.
Hong Kong is a lot less important to China than it used to be, 20 years ago (when they got it back from UK). It's notable but more like 3% of their GDP, down from like 30%, and Shanghai has now joined it as a global financial center. If you can provide more information about these shell companies, it would be appreciated.

The thing is that it's currently an annoyance and an embarrassment for them, but not a quagmire in the way that North Korea is for the US. Whatever issues they're having with Hong Kong can and will be dealt with. We don't know how, but China is starting to lose patience, and there's a lot they can do that's not a full-blown repeat of Tienanmen Square. For instance, they could just flood the streets with riot police and shut down any protests as soon as they start. Just lock everyone up. Hit them with fines, jail, etc.

Furthermore, I don't see any way the US can really use it as leverage. In spite of what China is implying, with its state media blaming recent unrest on meddling by foreign actors, there's really not much the US can do to influence what's going on, there - one way or another.

The tariffs aren't really an issue for the US government with the recent tax cuts.
No, not for the overall economy. Yet. But it's hurting certain companies and sectors, most notably the agricultural sector. And Trump just blinked, because even he can't deny how the next round will really begin to bite. And with that one move, I think he just lost most of his leverage.

Replacing income taxes with tariffs is a more preferable situation.
The current level of the tariffs isn't even close to the amount of additional revenue the government is losing with the 2017 tax cuts.

And tariffs are basically a sales tax, which is regressive - it disproportionately affects those with lower income, whereas income taxes have a more equitable impact, though still not quite the flat tax they should be.

Worse, the tariffs provoked backlash, which is the way it's affecting particularly agricultural exports (as I mentioned, above), but also certain technology and other products that China buys from the US.

Ultimately, tariffs aren't a long-term solution to the problems they're trying to solve.
 
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bit_user

Polypheme
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Its a politician. Every word they say is bull.
So, judge them on what they do. Or, better yet, on the end result.

But, before you reach a verdict on the tax cuts, you might want to consider the impact on the budget deficit. This is the amount added to the federal debt, each year.

(see last chart)​

And the bigger that gets, the larger the interest payments get.


So, go ahead and credit Trump and the Republican Congress of 2017 with the Strong Economy. Just don't forget about the huge deficits they're running, when we're in recession, interest rates are at 0% and we can't fall back on deficit spending because servicing the existing debt is already too expensive. Or worse - when your taxes actually have to go up, in order to service that debt.

Trump will bankrupt the US, just like his airline, his University, his Atlantic City Casino. etc. He doesn't care, just as long as he gets re-elected.

The reason I say this is because he's pushing for 0% interest rates, when we're not even in recession. I'm not saying we should sit back and do nothing, but he has not made the kind of investments in structural reforms to propel sustainable growth in the economy. Cutting interest rates to 0% would keep the economy growing a bit longer, but it's like giving meth to a tired athlete who really just needed a better training program to have enough endurance to make it through the game. It's just a short-term band aid fix that will leave us in even worse shape, when recession finally hits.
 
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jandrsn27

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Our companies chose China because they have zero labor, enviromental, and health standards. At the same time our government lowered all of our tariffs for Chinese goods( calling it free trade) and turned a blind eye when China raised tariffs on those same goods coming from us. This (deliberate?) imbalance has made silicon valley and the Chinese communists trillions! What did the average American get in return? Shuttered factories, once thriving now desolate towns, loss of hope, fetanyl (Made in China ofc!) addictions, crime and national debt to finance the loss of tax revenue generated by those tens of thousands once successful manufacturing companies. Now I am supposed to forget all of this and just focus on "consumer prices" and forget about this imbalance, why it was caused, and how it is affecting people not only in this country but also the average Chinese worker and the conditions they are exposed to on a daily basis? Now I am also supposed to side and feel sorry for these trade organizations, manufacturers, and think tanks and codemn "Trump's Trade War" just because the company loses some profit or I need to pay more for my Chinese slave goods? I've got a better idea! Screw China, Screw the companies that made the decision to move there in the first place and take advantage of all those workers. All of these tech companies crying because their profits are down and now we actually have a president who cares about trade imbalances and American workers, will get ZERO sympathy from me.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
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our government lowered all of our tariffs for Chinese goods( calling it free trade) and turned a blind eye when China raised tariffs on those same goods coming from us.
No, not at all. China's tariff and non-tariff barriers have long been an issue of contention between the US and China.

Did you even look for information about this, or just assume that the lack of resolution is simply for lack of trying? If Trump's trade war is good for anything, it should be to demonstrate that it's not an easy problem to solve.

And, in fact, previous efforts did get China to let its currency appreciate in value, among other things. That's certainly more than Trump has accomplished, thus far.

This (deliberate?) imbalance has made silicon valley and the Chinese communists trillions!
Um, how did the trade imbalance benefit Silicon Valley, exactly? Aren't you aware that most of those companies are banned from China? Where, exactly, did you find these statistics?

What did the average American get in return? Shuttered factories, once thriving now desolate towns, loss of hope, fetanyl (Made in China ofc!) addictions, crime and national debt to finance the loss of tax revenue generated by those tens of thousands once successful manufacturing companies.
Nobody is saying the trade deficit isn't a real problem. Of course, most problems have more than one solution, or at least can be attacked from multiple angles.

Of course, many of those jobs weren't lost to globalization. In fact, more were lost to automation than globalization. And don't forget "right-to-work" states, to where a lot of US-based manufacturing has migrated.

Now I am supposed to forget all of this and just focus on "consumer prices" and forget about this imbalance, why it was caused, and how it is affecting people not only in this country but also the average Chinese worker and the conditions they are exposed to on a daily basis? Now I am also supposed to side and feel sorry for these trade organizations, manufacturers, and think tanks and codemn "Trump's Trade War" just because the company loses some profit or I need to pay more for my Chinese slave goods?
No, but I think the issue is that Trump has tricked people into believing that his approach is the only solution.

Also, because he makes so much noise, people assume he's doing more than previous administrations. Like, in the case of North Korea, where he gave away things no other President has given them, and got even less in return than his predecessors. But he got more TV coverage and played it up in true Reality TV style, so people give him more credit.

The China trade war is similar. He's making a lot more noise, so people give him more credit. But, so far, we've gained nothing and lost much.

I've got a better idea! Screw China, Screw the companies that made the decision to move there in the first place and take advantage of all those workers.
It's kinda like the 2008 financial crisis. A lot of people were opposed to the bailout. But, that risked a complete breakdown of the financial system. Think bank runs, credit card transactions failing, paychecks bouncing, and unemployment running much higher than it eventually did. So, yeah, it would've really taught those bankers a lesson, but just wouldn't have been worth the pain likely suffered by the public. So, after voting down the bailout, Congress passed it. And Bush signed it.

Punishing the bankers wouldn't have solved anything, but it would have caused a lot of collateral damage. The real solution was proper oversight and regulation of the financial system, but 2008 was far too late for that.

And so, it's the same with our China problem. The seeds of the problem were sewn long ago, and allowed to fester. Once the problem reaches a crisis stage, it becomes too difficult to tackle, directly. Really addressing the trade deficit with China requires careful engineering.

I give Trump credit for prioritizing the issue and having the willingness to escalate it beyond what others have done. But China's dominance is largely a product of their patience, planning, and ingenuity. That's the real way to beat them (or at least level the playing field, somewhat), and Trump comes up short on all 3, sadly.

Unfortunately, his attempts are really hurting US-based exporters, including the manufacturing sector he's trying to help. But a lot of other businesses are starting to speak out on the trade war's impact on them. Besides exporters (including agriculture), retail and a lot of importers are directly suffering from the tariffs. Pretty soon, the impacts will be felt far and wide, throughout the entire US economy.

All of these tech companies crying because their profits are down and now we actually have a president who cares about trade imbalances and American workers, will get ZERO sympathy from me.
It's not helpful to look at this in terms of a zero-sum. In fact, that's a major problem with Trump's view on trade. Trade is not actually a zero-sum game.
 

jandrsn27

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No, not at all. China's tariff and non-tariff barriers have long been an issue of contention between the US and China.

Did you even look for information about this, or just assume that the lack of resolution is simply for lack of trying? If Trump's trade war is good for anything, it should be to demonstrate that it's not an easy problem to solve.

And, in fact, previous efforts did get China to let its currency appreciate in value, among other things. That's certainly more than Trump has accomplished, thus far.

I did look at the information..... thoroughly. Contention or no contention currency appreciation or no currency appreciation, the data speaks for itself....... nothing was done to stop the trade imbalances. They just kept growing larger and larger. In 1985 the deficit was 6 million it is now roughly 400 billion.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Um, how did the trade imbalance benefit Silicon Valley, exactly? Aren't you aware that most of those companies are banned from China? Where, exactly, did you find these statistics?
"SILICON" Valley. I'll give you a hint Silicon doesn't stand for Social Media.(Which is banned) Intel, AMD, Nvidia, telecommunications, internet, software developers, laptops, tablets, pcs, smartphones are developed, tested, invented there..... but not manufactured. They are manufactured in Taiwan ( which I am cool with ) or China. Those companies took advantage of lax regulations and cheap labor to A) make their products cheaper and more competitive and B) make more profit. Apple which is NOT banned in China has 250$ billion in cash reserves..... right now. How much less would that be if they manufactured their goods in the US??

Nobody is saying the trade deficit isn't a real problem. Of course, most problems have more than one solution, or at least can be attacked from multiple angles.
Sounds like something you would see on a teleprompter! lol

Of course, many of those jobs weren't lost to globalization. In fact, more were lost to automation than globalization. And don't forget "right-to-work" states, to where a lot of US-based manufacturing has migrated.

I'll do a little thought experiment, any one can play along if they like! The easy part is we do not need any stats, industry "experts," or help from political talking points, just our common sense. Let's assume ALL of our manufacturing is HIGHLY automated, best technologies, robots, AI.... etc. Now look at last years import data from Chinese manufactured imports (steel, toys, computers, clothes, furniture.... etc) the number in 2018 was roughly 530 Billion. Now think if all of those goods were made here how many jobs would that create? How many manufacturing plants would be built or reopened? How much tax revenue could be generated from sales taxes while those companies operated in the US? I do not have an exact number but I can tell you it would be YUUUUUGE! lol

No, but I think the issue is that Trump has tricked people into believing that his approach is the only solution.

Trump is the first to actually do something about it, so at this point in history it is literally the only solution that has been presented. I once again reference. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. The trade deficit has skyrocketed. Oddly though the deficit has been growing the entire time that all these politicians and "experts" have been complaining about the deficit. Which I find funny because I always thought if you complained about something and went on tv to whip up voter support the problem just fixed itself! I'll take a doer over a complainer ANY day!

It's kinda like the 2008 financial crisis. A lot of people were opposed to the bailout. But, that risked a complete breakdown of the financial system. Think bank runs, credit card transactions failing, paychecks bouncing, and unemployment running much higher than it eventually did. So, yeah, it would've really taught those bankers a lesson, but just wouldn't have been worth the pain likely suffered by the public. So, after voting down the bailout, Congress passed it. And Bush signed it.

Apples and Oranges. If we lost 100% of our export sales to China our economy would not crash. In fact it would see it as a minor event. We export 120 Billion worth of goods to China every year. We have an annual GDP of 19.39 trillion. So just in case any one is bad at math(which is cool I SUCK at grammar :) ) 120billion/19.39trillion = .6% We'll live!! If congress wants to help the farmers transition to new markets by providing temporary assistance, I as a tax payer do not mind their bailout.

Punishing the bankers wouldn't have solved anything, but it would have caused a lot of collateral damage. The real solution was proper oversight and regulation of the financial system, but 2008 was far too late for that.

I mostly agree with this, but they most definitely should have been punished Do you know how the financial crisis happened? Banks, financial institutions, and financial ratings agencies defrauded the entire mortgage backed security market. They packaged home loans from sub prime borrowers and rated them as AAA sold them to investors, pension funds, local and state governments, while hiding the fact that most of the borrowers where unable to pay their loans back. At the same time they were so dumb or greedy or both they were selling credit default swaps to investors to cash out when the mortgage backed securities went bust. When the mortgage defaults started rolling in the credit default swaps started paying out and it eventually reached a point that banks had to sell all assets to cover the credit default swaps. So that risked all stocks, cash deposits, bonds... etc. That is what crashed the stock market and it could have been prevented had the banks and ratings agencies been honest with investors, these are sub prime mortgages they are not AAA, be warned it is risky to buy them. At the same time should not have been allowed to sell so many CDS based on such a large market of risky assets. Instead they lied another word for that is called fraud which last I checked is illegal. They should have been punished both financially and criminally. How would that help us now? It would set an important precedent, you commit fraud and rip off investors, you go to jail. Next time people will think twice before doing it again!


I give Trump credit for prioritizing the issue and having the willingness to escalate it beyond what others have done. But China's dominance is largely a product of their patience, planning, and ingenuity. That's the real way to beat them (or at least level the playing field, somewhat), and Trump comes up short on all 3, sadly.

I think you give China too much credit. China saw an opportunity and just undercut every other country. Little to no environmental regulations, companies can dump whatever waste into the air or rivers. (thankfully this has been changing) They have minimal labor laws, factory safety regualtions.... etc. When workers get overworked from their 12hour a day 6 day a week work schedule for still poverty wages, instead of fixing these problems and addressing workers concerns, they just hang up suicide nets so workers don't kill themselves. Work conditions in China are abysmal at best. The Chinese Communist government established its rule off the deaths of 45 million of its citizens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_killings_under_communist_regimes They see their own citizens as nothing more than peasants as fodder to exploit to companies all over the world to feed their own ambitions. While I agree this is a strategy of theirs and they have been patient in implementing it, it is far from genius or enlightened. It is actually quite barbaric and quite possibly the effects it has had on its own citizens has been one of the worst humanitarian crisis's of the 20th century.

Unfortunately, his attempts are really hurting US-based exporters, including the manufacturing sector he's trying to help. But a lot of other businesses are starting to speak out on the trade war's impact on them. Besides exporters (including agriculture), retail and a lot of importers are directly suffering from the tariffs. Pretty soon, the impacts will be felt far and wide, throughout the entire US economy.

If our exporters and farmers lose China that manpower and capital will just find different uses and new markets. You make it sound like people and companies cannot adapt. It is exporting to China or nothing. As far as importers, consumers, and retailers are concerned. If manufacturing were to move out of China, Americans would still need goods, that manufacturing would shift to other countries and with any luck some would find its way back here. Companies would choose places that had no tariffs on goods sent to America with countries more willing to have fair trade deals with us, wasn't hostile towards us, and treated their workers much better. We could be allowed better access to their markets for exports, our companies wouldn't have the bow to the communist government to do business. I do not think the average American realizes how our companies have to bend over backwards just to do business there. Technology transfers, partial government ownership of companies is required, patents are not respected.... etc. That is the hidden costs of doing business there that is not calculated into the trade deficit. No need for hyperbole the impact will not be felt far and wide. The only loser here will be China! We strip away their exports they lose 550 billion a year, millions of jobs, tens of thousands of factories. They CANNOT find a replacement to the American consumer. We can find a replacement for our exporters!

It's not helpful to look at this in terms of a zero-sum. In fact, that's a major problem with Trump's view on trade. Trade is not actually a zero-sum game.

I agree trade does not need to be a zero-sum game. Every country and people can benefit when trade deals are in place to ensure fairness, healthy competition, and cooperation. The only problem is China does not see as a trading partner, otherwise they would have negotiated for a more equitable trade deal. Just like every other country did when Trump asked. China has always been in a trade war with us the only problem is we are just now learning about it. They purposefully devalue their currency, they steal our technology then heavily subsidize their companies to compete against own to undercut all of our prices overseas and at home. They flood markets with these subsidized goods to gain increasing market shares and dominate local competitors in nearly all countries. These are not actions of cooperative trading partners, this is an action to undercut all competitors and gain a monopoly on manufacturing. If China continues to do these things while at the same time does not negotiate a trade deal to correct the trade imbalances. It is not worth doing business with them. We can find more cooperative and democratic nations to manufacture our goods at the very least.
 
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scubadog40

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We all need to stand behind what Pres. Trump is going about this. It will make things better for us all in the end. China has been stealing our technology forever. Just think of it like this. You design a product that is something new and you have China the copies your invention at would make you a lot of money. Now they sell it for 1/2 off what you make and now you can't sell yours anymore. You would be pissed and there is nothing you can do about it. This has to stop.
 
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Really all of this stuff is above my head and i couldnt make a decision myself.

Because of that, the best i can do is stand behind the commander in chief and hope he has the knowledge to make a good choice.
 

mihen

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US Federal Revenue from all sources - The Balance
FY 2018 $3.33 Trillion
FY 2017 $3.32 Trillion
FY 2016 $3.27 Trillion

If you dig into the numbers Trump's tariffs will bring in $35 billion more in tariff revenue while Corporate Tax Cuts reduced revenue from $295 Billion in 2016 to $206 Billion in 2018, but these cuts were necessary in my opinion. The US simply won't survive in a global market with the highest corporate tax rate. As a result of the tariffs, farm subsidies will increase dramatically.
I agree, in a trade war both sides lose to some extent. It's difficult to tell the full affects of this trade war on the US consumer. Most goods to the US are manufactured in North America. A lot of companies are moving from China to Vietnam or Taiwan. There is an increase in the cost of living independent of the Trade War like state policy. I would estimate that the cost on people around the median household income will be less than how much they received from the 2017 tax cuts. Doubling the standard deduction for low income and families is about $2000 if they paid income taxes at all.
For the average Chinese worker, the trade war is going to be much worse since a lot of their economy depends on trade. If a company moves out of China the company won't lose much, but the worker will lose a lot. China has to deal with much worse situation while also having the disputes with Hong Kong and Taiwan.
A US-China trade deal is dependent on how long the Chinese can continue dealing with the negative affects of the trade war while the US has much more negligible affects. The problem is China is willing to abuse their citizens and has a lot of objectionable practices that the US will want to put an end to. However it's because of these practices that puts China at a competitive edge.
 
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Gillerer

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I find it funny/sad how people say they hate taxes, with things like "taxes are theft", but then turn around and applaud when the government imposes tariffs and takes a portion of private spending that way.

Hint: The companies aren't paying for the tariffs - the consumer is.

Since the U.S. only makes up a minority of the world economy, and the tariffs don't affect any other regions, the total effect on the companies is much less than the percentage value would imply. Companies can just pass on the costs to the end prices for that single market.
 
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mihen

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I would prefer neither, but we live in a world were the US government and states spend trillions a year.
To me the problem with an income tax is that it's taxing income generation. As a result it reduces capital savings and reduces the rate of new businesses. Obviously with a consumption tax, it is then taxed later. But the incentive is there to save rather than spend.
Consumption taxes and tariffs pretty much have the same result. You can choose what to tax like gasoline. I feel that the tariff is more preferable because you are taxing the person who is buying a foreign product.
 

Zhyr

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So US government gets $75 B in tariff revenue but consumers only pay between $45 B to $57 B in increased prices for these luxury goods. The increased prices should go away once those Commie loving manufacturers can move their production back to US or to other friendly countries that treat the US fairly and have non-slave labor. Sounds like a tremendous deal for the US and our economy as $75 >($45 to 57).

If they move manufacturing from a very cheap country to an expensive country, prices will increase substantially more, especially when factoring in the costs to build the new manufacturing facilities.
 

atomicorbital

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President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods could have a big effect on tech companies and consumers, and many are speaking out.

Trump's Tariffs and Tech: Everything You Need to Know : Read more

Every article on these tariffs must include the motives ... USA is putting pressure on China to adhere to global business standards most importantly to stop China from forcing Intellectual Property transfer as a precondition on setting up manufacturing in China ... once China caves on this all global businesses win not just American ... mass media typically fails to give this critical context
 
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Walter Smith

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yes, like the US Prison Service does NOT employ slave labor...and force people to work for 5 cents an hour
dies this even deserve a reply? if you can't do the time, don't do the crime!! AND they get far more than 5 cents an hour, they get to defray the cost of room and board that they are provided. 3 hots and a cot!!
 
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EtaLasquera

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I'm Brazil we pay 50% tax when pick anything from any place outside our country.
If you don't like 10% and want more, come to Brazil! We have carnival!
 
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endlessmike

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Tariffs won't automagically result in jobs returning to the United States because the United States is not the sole alternative to sourcing goods from China. If costs go up on both sides because they're hitting eachother with retaliatory tariffs then the rational thing to do is to simply do business with a third party that can now afford to offer a better deal than either. You know, like the EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Mexico or even Brazil and India.
 
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Its weird to think basically little to none of any tech is made in the united states.
I feel like the only way to actually get giants to stop outsourcing to china is if china implements actual labour/wage laws that are similar to the US but since its china I doubt we'll ever see that
 

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