We Could Run Out of Hard Drives Soon, Says Analyst

[claydavis]

yes. the prices are ricing to a greater level. I wish I could have got some hard disk stocks when i just got this news leaked.

 

[wardler]

Newegg: 3TB = ~500 bones.

 

[techtre2003]

[citation][nom]wardler[/nom]Newegg: 3TB = ~500 bones.[/citation]

Are you somewhere besides the US? I'm seeing $270-$430 for 3TB drives at Newegg.

 

[techtre2003]

Just built a HTPC three months ago loaded with 2&3 TB drives. What cost me $1000 in drives then would run me $2,400 today!

 

[grapheneburst]

It's price fixing plain and simple. The price of hard drives were dropping too low and the margins were too thin. So the worlds drive makers got together and set a price. Just like Samsung, Infineon, and Hynix fixed the prices of sdram. I believe their cover story was a plant that burned down. Or Sharp, LG, and a pile of other companies fixing lcd panel prices... it goes on an on.

 

[f-14]

exactly what is needed to kill HDD's and accelerate SSD adoption. by the time HDD production catches up HDD will be battling for $ with SSD dollar for dollar and most likely lose huge once people notice the performance increase vs a HDD.
this sort of fear mongering only works in oil as there is no better mass produced solution at this time for the oil supply.
nice try at fear mongering to drive up your seagate stock mr perry.

 

[belardo]

This seems to be more of an excuse. We just had the flood - yet the drives we have on the shelves suddenly cost more money?!

Yeah... I was budgeting buying a $70 2TB Seagate... now its $150~200?! I quotes clients with $50 500GB drives... which are now $110?! Frack Frack Frack!

I call some of it BS... but partial understandable. If the flooding knocks out 20% capacity for all manufactures. Then it may not be possible for the other factories to pick up the slack... eventually we run out of drives unless / until the Thailand factories are operational or the other location add another shift (if possible).

Again... this is what happens when ALL tech manufacturing is in one part of the world.

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]shloader[/nom]Western Digital = ThailandHitachi = Thailand, China, SingaporeSeagate = Thailand, China, Possibly still some Singapore production, too.Toshiba = Thailand, Philippines, ChinaSamsung = Korea (3.5"), China (All 2.5", Some 3.5")No more hard drives? Who is this guy? Look... So far the only company I've heard about having issues due to flooding is Western D. Are they the only company that built their production fab on a flood plain? How do we know other manufactures in the area didn't build substantially higher than Sea Level? It's just a equally a possibility that we're being lied to. Wouldn't be the first time this has happened in the tech industry. I remember a RAM production facility that caught fire around the late nineties and all the sudden a stick of 128MB PC133 went from $60 to $170 in a week. Then later it was found out that the particular facility produced modules with tech dating ten plus years back and had no impact on the industry. RAM manufactures just banded together to keep prices up. Then in 2007/2008 they were recently caught doing it again... no tragedy this time. Now I'm not saying this is 100% Bullsht. I've seen the pictures. But a lot of manufactures started out in other countries before setting up shop in Thailand and still have full production going on in Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, China, so for some Guy to say we might run out is just talking out his arse. Apparently Seagate is in the news considered to be 'among the lucky' so not all manufacturing in Thailand was smacked, more a problem moving materials and supply. So the PC manufacturers will get their drives. Just won't be Western Digital.[/citation]
Very good point, the only way HDD production would suffer in the dramatic way it has been pitched to the public is if WW3 broke out in South East Asia and 1/4 of the the Earth had been blasted away in nuclear weapons.
And if it had, i'm sure HDD production would be the LEAST of anyones problems.

 

[borisof007]

2tb WD is now $370, prices are OUT OF CONTROL: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822136579

 

[Guest]

"I'm planning on doing a build when Ivy Bridge comes out next year, but it looks like I'm going to end up using my 8 year old 2/3 TB drive a little longer. " damn you had 2 and 3 tb drives 8 years ago I could swear 3 tb just came out this year!!! can i borrow your time machine!

 

[lamorpa]

"shortage of hard disk drive supply"?

There's a shortage of the supply? Just increase the outlets. The real problem will come when there is a shortage of the drives themselves...

 

[hannibal]

Hmmm... this can actually mean that SSD can allso become more expensive, because there are more people buying those... In short range ofcourse. In long range this can make SSD cheaper.

 

[bildo123]

Glad I was able to pick my Samsung 1TB F3 up for $60 + FS like a week before this happened.

 

[Guest]

It will not affect the SSD market like most are assuming, at least not to a huge extent. It's all supply and demand. Given the extreme price hike and shortages of HDDs, the demand for SSDs will be higher. Therefore prices will at least stay the same, if not rise slightly.

 

[c_herring]

[citation][nom]shloader[/nom]so for some Guy to say we might run out is just talking out his arse. [...] So the PC manufacturers will get their drives. Just won't be Western Digital.[/citation]The market (OEMs, retailers, etc.) wanted 180 million drives. About 60 million of those drives came from Thailand and aren't being made now. Even if Hitachi/Seagate/Samsung/etc. ramp up production in their non-Thailand facilities they aren't going to suddenly close that gap using the facilities they currently have. It isn't just "our drives won't be made in Thailand this year" - their customers aren't going to be able to order as many drives as they would have.

 

[c_herring]

"not going to get as many as they would have" isn't quite "run out" of course. They'll get their drives, just not as many of them.

 

[blazorthon]

Great... My hard drive in my main PC is starting to fail me after 6+ years of use and now I can't afford to replace it. I never saw this coming but at least I know why that WD caviar green I was eying tripled in price in a week.

 

[MacPhotographs]

This is devastating, and its likely distribution of consumer drives will take a back seat so company's like HP & Dell can continue to push out their pre-built machines.

We can only hope this will spur some kind of decline on the price of SSD drives.

 

[Chewie]

[citation][nom]belardo[/nom]This seems to be more of an excuse. We just had the flood - yet the drives we have on the shelves suddenly cost more money?!Yeah... I was budgeting buying a $70 2TB Seagate... now its $150~200?! I quotes clients with $50 500GB drives... which are now $110?! Frack Frack Frack!I call some of it BS... but partial understandable. If the flooding knocks out 20% capacity for all manufactures. Then it may not be possible for the other factories to pick up the slack... eventually we run out of drives unless / until the Thailand factories are operational or the other location add another shift (if possible).Again... this is what happens when ALL tech manufacturing is in one part of the world.[/citation]
Have you heard of Just In Time inventory? Each stage in the supply chain carries the minimum amount of stock need to cover projected orders till the next shipment. Anyone not doing that has to cover a huge difference in logistics costs. So anything impacting supply ripples down the chain very quickly. And people don't buy HDDs speculatively the way they do with oil. If the supply has dropped from 180 million per quarter to 60 million per quarter, that will have an impact very quickly, as is happening.
This is not a con. Much Thai manufacturing has been shut down, which can be verified independantly, and that is having a fast and dramatic effect on prices.

 

[Guest]

Well, flood or not, you don't have to buy at those increased prices - they're a genuine rip-off. Price increase has almost nothing to do with shortage but with speculating the moment, which is a shame (don't bring up theories like price elasticity of supply or other crap like that: it's). Most of us can afford the luxury of waiting for the prices to come down, Q1, Q2, Q3... or whenever this will happen.

 

[gelendy]

here in my country mauritius hdd price reached $115 for 500gb i personally think that the shortage will come in the first Q1 of 2012 where 10 to 30% will increase it will be a world record in price of hdd lets see

 

[mbg10484]

Damn I need a HD for my laptop now and was planning on doing a build also in a couple months. Supposedly this is TIM COOK'S fault, so FU TIM COOK. he's the one who started all this mess, its all speculation. Most of the hard drive makers have alternate manufacturing locations, and the actuall production has not even slowed down enough to make a difference, its the speculation of these big suppliers that buy up all the hard drives and sell to retailers for more money that are causing the prices to go up, and the reason why they are doing this is because that douche TIM COOK and his analysts said their was going to be a shortage without any solid proof.

 

[jsmakkar]

That sounds alarming for prices. Prices don't seem to come down then.

 

[shafe88]

[citation][nom]soldier37[/nom]I have 6 hard drives at my house, 2 SSDs and plenty of space totaling over 4 TB so no need for any anytime soon![/citation] Just because you have hard drives doesn't mean you won't need to replace one or more of them later on. Suppose one or more of your hard drives dies at the hight of the shortage than what are you going to do.