News "We Must Seize TSMC" Urges Senior Chinese Economist

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China's own advanced node initiatives are still well behind what Intel/Samsung/GloFo/and TSMC. But we all know the most advanced nodes for the worlds most advanced products come from TSMC. The objective here is to give clear access to technology China lacks and could freely export to other friendly nations like Russia. But also to hold the world hostage, in much the same manner we are influencing Oligarchs by seizing their boats. If you cripple enough companies, they would hope to have enough influence end such sanctions. But China forgets a number of critical stages to chip manufacturing depend on world involvement like noble gases.

For this strategy to be effective for China, they have to do it BEFORE TSMC builds fabs in other parts of the worlds like USA. But if I were TSMC, I would personally sabotage the plant if China tried to take over. It would be a pyric victory at best. If China knows ahead a time that a majority of Taiwan's value will be lost in an invasion, they may think twice.

But invasion will not be China's strategy. They are likely planning a blockade with a massive naval fleet backed with anti shipping warfare. Thus the plan is based on starving Taiwan into submission, thus not requiring them to fire a shot, and reducing world outcry. It's the most logical conclusion based on massive military spending on the navy and anti ship missile systems.
 
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I wondered a few weeks ago if this was going to happen and now I read this. Yes it is quite possible and honestly it begs the question, what took the CCP so long? When the US is going around the world seizing assets from other Countries it disagrees with so as to punish them, it makes others who do business with the US, really nervous. Could they be the next target? The White House did itself no favors by threatening China over it's partnership with Russia.

China has the upper hand in all of this because pretty much everything is made in China these days. IIRC even Samsung uses China's manufacturing base for many of it's products.
 
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Heat_Fan89 said:
I wondered a few weeks ago if this was going to happen and now I read this. Yes it is quite possible and honestly it begs the question, what took the CCP so long? When the US is going around the world seizing assets from other Countries it disagrees with so as to punish them, it makes others who do business with the US, really nervous. Could they be the next target? The White House did itself no favors by threatening China over it's partnership with Russia.

China has the upper hand in all of this because pretty much everything is made in China these days. IIRC even Samsung uses China's manufacturing base for many of it's products.
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I have examined 3 economic videos if China lost the west as a trading partner. They reach a similar conclusion: Both sides would suffer massively. Eventually both would recover, but the USA would recover better/faster. China has no social safety net for economic downturn. And the majority of trading partners China would have left would be much smaller in terms of trade. While things like wheat and oil from Russia would benefit China, the overall net loss would be staggering.
 
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digitalgriffin said:
I have examined 3 economic videos if China lost the west as a trading partner. They reach a similar conclusion: Both sides would suffer massively. Eventually both would recover, but the USA would recover better/faster. China has no social safety net for economic downturn. And the majority of trading partners China would have left would be much smaller in terms of trade. While things like wheat and oil from Russia would benefit China, the overall net loss would be staggering.
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That is the thinking if one listens to the West's propaganda. The West is in decline and has been for many decades. The debt levels of the West are totally insane and it no longer has a manufacturing base. The East is in far better shape than the West because the East has a much higher population and now controls manufacturing. Russia has the world's greatest amount of natural resources. The East is where the West has been targeting for growth the last 10-20 yrs.

I do agree that there are no clear winners but in the end the East will just dust themselves off and start over and do business amongst themselves which is already been happening.
 
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Heat_Fan89 said:
That is the thinking if one listens to the West's propaganda. The West is in decline and has been for many decades. The debt levels of the West are totally insane and it no longer has a manufacturing base. The East is in far better shape than the West because the East has a much higher population and now controls manufacturing. Russia has the world's greatest amount of natural resources. The East is where the West has been targeting for growth the last 10-20 yrs.

I do agree that there are no clear winners but in the end the East will just dust themselves off and start over and do business amongst themselves which is already been happening.
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Well then I wish you the best of luck as you suffer. But the east isn't as strong as it seems. A very large percentage of China's economic growth is based on construction. And thanks to the 3 red line rule, their economy is collapsing hard because it was a Ponzi scheme.

As to Russia's natural resources, they have oil, gas, wheat, some Uranium deposits, and titanium. But the russian infrastructure has been stuck in the early 90's. It is running at near capacity. It's growth (1/3rd) was fueled by sales of raw materials to Europe. Like I said it will take time to build new infrastructure to countries like China. Their east west railroad is limited in size, and most of the power and materials are in western Russia.

Make no mistake, both sides will suffer greatly. And I were the Chinese government, dealing with a billion plus hungry starving Chinese is a big problem. They panicked during 2007 housing crisis global recession. People were jumping to their deaths as they had no safety net. And this will make it look like a picnic.
 
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We are all trying to get back to normal after a global pandemic like the world has never see in the last years.

Goverment leaders instead of thinking about that, and thinking what to do to help the citizen go back to thier normal life + re-think this new global weakness, are as always, looking for the next drama plot and next power move.

Its seems they haven't learn anything after +2000 years of history.

What a real pitty.
 
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RodroX said:
We are all trying to get back to nromal after a global pandemic like the world has never see in the last years.

Goverment leaders instead of thinking about that, and thinking what to do to help the citizen go back to thier normal life + re-think this new global weakness, are as always, looking for the next drama plot and next power move.

Its seems they haven't learn anything after +2000 years of history.

What a real pitty.
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I agree. Personal ambitions of pride & power seem to always outweigh the needs of the people.
 
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Heat_Fan89 said:
That is the thinking if one listens to the West's propaganda. The West is in decline and has been for many decades. The debt levels of the West are totally insane and it no longer has a manufacturing base. The East is in far better shape than the West because the East has a much higher population and now controls manufacturing. Russia has the world's greatest amount of natural resources. The East is where the West has been targeting for growth the last 10-20 yrs.

I do agree that there are no clear winners but in the end the East will just dust themselves off and start over and do business amongst themselves which is already been happening.
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I would like to know your sources. Being an American I must only read propaganda. Please enlighten me as to where I can get unadulterated news.
 
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I take this as a grain of salt. The guy who says this works for China Center for International Economic Exchanges, which is a Chinese think tank. He doesn't represent the government , military or SMIC for all we know and this is his opinion. I'm pretty sure that as long as TSMC keeps selling processors to various Chinese companies, TSMC won't be seized.
 
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China's not going to do anything unless their economic situation de-stabilizes. They can't afford to do something so obvious that directly triggers such an economic upheaval, they'd be facing revolution.

Now, If their economy begins to tank for other less clear reasons (like, real estate bubbles bursting or debt market implosion), then all bets are off and I'd say the odds become quite high. They'll probably blame the west for the economic issues in this scenario to get public support. Once they have the public angry, they won't be able to stop.
 
In Russia's Ukraine invasion, strategists said you need a roughly 10:1 advantage to take over a town being defended by guerrilla tactics. Taiwan is an island with mountains everywhere and cities everywhere there is coastal lands. Assuming Taiwan values its independence from China as strongly as Ukraine rejects annexation by Russia, they'd have to raze the cities from the sea before landing troops.

Even if China does eventually manage to gain a foothold in Taiwan without destroying the fabs, Taiwanese fighters will likely end up turning the high-tech fabs China covets so much into Taiwanese Azovstal. Every day that China doesn't dare to turn clean rooms into warzones and ruining equipment is one more day of equipment getting contaminated by fighters holed up in there and ruined it anyway.

And even if China does manage to take over fabs without having them destroyed or sabotaged, the optical, critical components and consumables needed to make wafer scanners and other essential equipment come from all over the world with only one or two ultra-specialized suppliers for each thing. China's fab ambitions won't go far once the country is banned by all of the countries and companies making critical components required to make more machines for which no alternate suppliers exist.

The only way for China to get a significant chunk of Taiwan's tech would be for Taiwan to surrender without a fight.
 
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there's a growing faction that's not interested in catching up through normal means
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That's basically China's thing.
Why do it our self and waste time/money when can just steal it.

There is a reason China is known for it (as they did it so much for so long).



Heat_Fan89 said:
When the US is going around the world seizing assets from other Countries it disagrees with so as to punish them,
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examples?

As West doesn't seize assets w/o reason.

Also if anything China (specifically CCP) are worse and u can look at Tiananmen Square in past, the Uyghurs re-education camps, Hong Kong recently, and future "reunify Taiwan even if its bloody".

Heat_Fan89 said:
China has the upper hand in all of this because pretty much everything is made in China these days. IIRC even Samsung uses China's manufacturing base for many of it's products.
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due to cheap cost. (business 101: pay less to profit as much as possible)
which is rising and why some like Intel and others are looking to move to other places. (africa, india, and vietnam as examples)


Heat_Fan89 said:
That is the thinking if one listens to the West's propaganda. The West is in decline and has been for many decades. The debt levels of the West are totally insane and it no longer has a manufacturing base. The East is in far better shape than the West because the East has a much higher population and now controls manufacturing. Russia has the world's greatest amount of natural resources. The East is where the West has been targeting for growth the last 10-20 yrs
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again example of propaganda?
TBH only stuff we have is our own nations R vs D propaganda.

in decline? yes. due to bad gov management. However it can be turned around (just need get correct gov in power which might take a bit and this isnt the 1st time its happened as we've had to turn it around before in past)

Debt levels are insane in US? yes but then again so are basically all major nations (japan's got the worlds most debt) however USA isnt ever going to default on any payments. (no major nation will ever pay off their entire debt even Russia which is lowest debt in world)

Population doesnt dictate shape. Especially long term as China's likely going to lose a lot of population when older generations start to die off (due to them limiting children in past until recently).
West (like all nations that have major business not just west) targets whatever is needed. this is nothing new. We aren't invading places and stealing stuff. Its done as a business transaction.
RodroX said:
Its seems they haven't learn anything after +2000 years of history.
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mhmm.
Every leader should be happy with their lot and make world betetr place for everyone not try to casue problems with others.

InvalidError said:
Even if China does eventually manage to gain a foothold in Taiwan without destroying the fabs, Taiwanese fighters will likely end up turning the high-tech fabs China covets so much into Taiwanese Azovstal. Every day that China doesn't dare to turn clean rooms into warzones and ruining equipment is one more day of equipment getting contaminated by fighters holed up in there and ruined it anyway.
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exactly.

TSMC is valued by literally every nation. They could easily transfer important data to a foreign location, destroy everything in Taiwan's TSMC to make sure china gets nothing, and then re-start anywhere in world they want.

Also fact Biden has stated USA will help defend Taiwan should China invade.

InvalidError said:
for Taiwan to surrender without a fight.
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which isnt gonna happen. Taiwan is proud of their region. Seeing the treatment of Hong Kong they'd go down fighting (if they would lose which is debatable)

I believe they have already said they won't.


We need more Zalinsky type leaders instead of putin, pooh bear, Kim (aka those who think violence is only way to rule)
 
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If China invades Taiwan, it will be the DEATH of China. If you put the sanctions that are now against Russia, China would cease to exist. Turn off the oil and China shuts down in less than 6 months. Turn off food imports and 500 million dead in famines in the same time period. Add in worldwide boycotts from companies that presently run most of China's massive export industry and you can expect a complete shutdown of China. And what would China get in all this? Taiwan completely depends on western innovations and imports to keep its high-tech industries running. A war would also destroy ALL of Taiwans' infrastructure, completely shutting down all manufacturing and chip production. Even Xi must see how terrible Russia has been hit by starting a war and China is much, much more vulnerable.
 
escksu said:
Why are we even talking about politics in tomshardware???? I thought its banned? No?
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Who makes practically all of AMD's, most of Apple's, a large chunk of Nvidia and a growing fraction of even Intel's stuff? TSMC in Taiwan. The whole tech industry (among countless other things of course but as you mentioned, this is a hardware/tech site after all) is going to get royally screwed if China decides to start an annexation war on Taiwan.
 
This needs to be a wakeup call to the West that we need to ramp up the construction of not also computer fabs, but also plants for the production of other electronics and parts used in computers, telecommunications, and more of the other products we've outsourced to Asian manufacturing.
 
JoBalz said:
This needs to be a wakeup call to the West that we need to ramp up the construction of not also computer fabs, but also plants for the production of other electronics and parts used in computers, telecommunications, and more of the other products we've outsourced to Asian manufacturing.
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In case you haven't been paying attention, many foreign companies have started doing this 2-3 years ago. Some are moving out because the CCP is declining expansion requests and extensions to existing leases due to re-zoning plans, effectively evicting those companies. Others are shifting some if not all of their production elsewhere to avoid other countries' import tariffs. More recently, many are bailing out to reduce their liabilities from China's massive-scale lock-downs.

Will all the foreign manufacturers leaving China make a dent in China's economy? We'll see.
 
So, the opinions of one "chief economist at the government-run China Center for International Economic Exchanges" suddenly means China's CCP wants to takeover TSMC and/or Taiwan.

That's quite a claim and I don't think it's appropriate to jump to such a conclusion.

Now, if there was incontrovertible proof from within China's military or CCP members, this would be acceptable. Otherwise, this reads as an alarmist-piece based on one person's opinions.
 
from China's view, Taiwan to China is not line Ukraine to Russia.
for Ukraine is another country from Russia, though in CCCP era they are not.
China always saying Taiwan is a province in it, so Cai seems cannot got same support like Zelensky in the world.
 
Olle P said:
It's easier for China to just buy a significant portion of the TSMC shares to gain control. No need to use military assets.

Yes, a lot of the US spendings are paid for by Chinese loans.
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And a tremendous amount of Chinese spending for construction is paid for by US Loans which they are currently defaulting on. Our debt to the Chinese comes in the form of US Treasury notes.

And there are limitations to what a foreign entity could do when purchasing foreign company. It applies to international law and has to clear regulatory hurtles of the exchange where it is traded. Look what happened to Softbank ARM and NVIDIA. And they are friendly nations.
 
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China waited and watched as the world took a hands-off "too big to fight" approach with Russia. They realize they're also "too big to fight". They'll take Taiwan back within 5 years.

I sure hope TSMC has some sort of fail-safe that destroys all customer data upon such a scenario. Otherwise everyone that has orders in at TSMC just handed over all their proprietary technology to the Chinese government. That's why we don't send advanced technologies to our Chinese factory. At any point the CCP can just decide "this fab is mine now" and there's no fight to be had. We built the facility with this already in mind from the start.

Similar to what they did with the ARM branch over there. The government used their corporate access into ARM's systems to completely copy every single shred of IP they could.
 
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