but are we really sure that the PCI-EX is going to become the real standard?
Yep! At least until something replaces it later. Intel, nVidia and Ati's support is all it requires. That nV and ATI have both said that the NV40 and R420 will be their last top of the line AGP cards makes it certain.
And it doesn't matter what the average user uses or not, otherwise 4X and 8X aren't standards either, since the majority of cards out there are probably slower cards. It's not what you will use that counts, it's what will be implemented on NEW gear that matters more. That most people don't have DTV, let alone HDTV does not change the fact that those are both 'standards'.
Since the bus speed is by no means the bottleneck in today's (and even tomorrow's) graphic cards
That's a pretty brash statement considering the technologies are different and have different benifits. And if the R9800 series can start to show difference in 4X to 8X that doesn't mean there isn't benifits. And no one can talk about the future cards until they've tried them, especially not until future games test those boundaries.
It might be very possible that 3 years from now, 90% of the new PC's will still be using AGP or a derivate, and not the PCI-EX.
Irrelevant what 90% of the computers use, but 90% of the NEW omputers will definitly NOT have AGP as it's being dropped, even from integrated graphics. The presence of AGP in future new boards will be like ISA now. There will be rare examples, but they will be the exception and not the rule.
PCI-EX is here, it already IS a standard, and it's easier/cheaper to make chipsets that support it than to add AGP. The final word is that if you look at all the chipmakers' (mobo/cpu/vpu) roadmaps, agp doesn't appear anywhere beyond 2004.
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