From the first page of this thread:
JAYDEEJOHN :
My guestimate was 2-3% higher than Conroe clock per clock overall. Its looking like this may be true. If anyone downs this cpu, theyre also downing the Q6600s et al as well. We need more info still, and of course pricing and power usage numbers would help, as well as overall ocing abilities, which I see as 3.8 to 4.2, but again time will tell
The point is not whether you claimed as fact that it would OC to stated values - even if you mistakenly wrote that far, nothing but insider knowledge would assure you of that - but that you repeatedly and strongly suggested, or heavily entertained, the thought that it would put a lot of pressure on Yorkfields by matching or exceeding the average frequency headroom, based on what looks to be entirely AMD's show (their ES CPUs, their live demos, no mass sampling). And you got caught in AMD's bluff again, though it is not as severe and obvious of a bluffing attempt as with Phenom I.
This time, there was light bluffing with the cherry picks (e.g., having audience members randomly select CPUs out of an already 25-50% cherry-picked versus initial retail tray), but the more important problem was
how they validated the overclocks. Just like you should take everything claimed in an infomercial with a grain of salt, when all they demo is Crysis, and all they require to claim an overclock is 2 rounds of some Crysis demo on an open air bench, you should strongly suspect that actual respectable overclocks on the very same chips would be lower because generally accepted tests of stability are a higher standard.
When it came time for the independent review sites to overclock,
none of them claimed stability on the basis of gaming alone, but used the much more robust (and time-efficient) Prime95 test. And the results came out in the 3.5-3.9 GHz range for air, quite a ways off from your hopeful 3.8-4.2, and from the cherry picked "consistent 3.9" observation at the PII overclocking competition. In fact, of more than 30 leaked samples with reputable reviewers,
none actually hit 4 GHz on air with Prime95 stability.
You made a good point that AMD does tend to improve the process over time. Precedent is a very strong argument. People and companies have a nasty habit of repeating what they usually do. Even Hector only changed seats; AMD is being run by the same people. AMD's initial 65nm was an unusually poor showing - a fluke early release; this 45nm is looking more like the typical 90/130nm that the later-65nm node only approached in maturity. This typical level of maturity ends up close to Intel's but is chronologically behind by a bit over a year and brought down to within a year in node-to-node milestone comparison by earlier releases.
You also deserve credit for not believing the AMD-released slides showing PII well ahead of higher Yorkfields in gaming and various other tasks. Again, their viral marketing has a reputation for cherry picking and partial disclosure, something well publicized by the PI debacle.
As for the performance guesstimates, the reason the previews were spot-on (in between Kentsfield and Yorkfield) is that it's hard to influence performance when the whole CPU, near its final stepping, is subjected to independent benchmarking. You never see dramatic performance changes right after the very last ES stepping because the #1 priority before a retail release for any reputable CPU manufacturer is to iron out all the critical bugs. Those do far more damage than minor comparative benchmark changes that can be compensated by small price adjustments.
singing the praises of a cpu that almost outdoes its predessessor as much as a whole new arch which was already ahead does.
This is confusing to read.
When people say the Phenom 65nm was architecturally ahead of its time or process node, that's a
bad design comment. Good processor design allows a chip to be manufactured equally well on the current and the next future node (which is hopefully well under way), and it also keeps optimum balance between performance features and degradation among the two process nodes. When you overdesign, the chip ends up weak at the current process node, strong on the next, and weak again on the one after that (because you simply don't know the process details that far in advance). This makes the architecture shine for only one process generation instead of two.
From a design standpoint, it would be easiest to architect for one process node only. However, this would mean changing both the architecture and process node simultaneously, which would be a debugging nightmare from a production standpoint, or recycling a mature process, which would put your product a year or more behind the best that you could achieve with overlapping architecture and process.
Because the Phenom was especially weak at 65nm from overdesign, it is only natural that at 45nm, for which it was also designed, it would be comparatively much stronger. But this also bodes poorly for 32nm. The Phenom could not have been designed accurately for 32nm, so they'll be forced to change it, and even then it won't be optimal, perhaps resembling the Brisbane at 65nm over 90nm, or the Athlon XP at 130nm over 180nm.
This is a standadised score based on numerous reviews, with a PII 940 being the mid point at 100. Just going by points divided by clockspeed:
1) Q9550: 104 / 2830MHz = 0.0367
2) Q6600: 86 / 2400MHz = 0.0358
3) PII 920: 95 / 2800MHz = 0.0339
4) PII 940: 100 / 3000MHz = 0.333
I wouldn't divide benchmark index scores by clock speed. Benchmarks scale very imperfectly. These are certainly not all pure core tests. Most the reviews that adjust clocks for comparison do find the PII averaging right between the Kentsfield and Yorkfield - that is pretty precise because there isn't much performance difference between Conroe and Penryn.