@8530rocks http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/352312-28-steamroller-speculation-expert-conjecture/page-77#10881979
(this thread seems to move faster than i can post... i might getting obsolete in the typing lol )
Yes going below 10nm there is clearly a barrier for current lithography and else techs.
But 10nm is already 4x smaller than current 28nm... a 500mm² Nvidia titan with only 125mm²... it could easily mean chips at least 3x smaller than now( considering that some structures don't scale well) more than 20 threads per chip even for desktop/client offerings, is at hand.
The big problem is exactly IPC and the instruction parallelism of current ISA implementations. You could have a single core 3 times as big yet it wouldn't be 3x as performant. Most probably not even 2 times as performant. That is why power is such a big concern even with advanced power management, and that is why Moore's Law is said to be slowing down, just doesn't make sense to make things as big as possible or as feature rich as possible, more so because the interconnect would grow tremendously making performance even worst (that is why the photonics push)... new software or new ISA much be invented...
So at least *multithreading* even for client applications must be on the menu for the future, and that is why in long tern ARM has a good chance of being in the place that x86 is now. ARM has both power and multithreading capabilities above x86. I don't think FPGA will take the spotlight, since heterogeneous with a good dose of superior fixed function hardware can take the wind out of FPGA sails. But a truly trully specialized solution will always have market, but not that ends ups transforming FPGA into general purpose.
So ARM with its "relaxed" memory model is simply better for performance with multiple threads, which might seem a contradiction since it is used mostly for low power lower thread count portable devices, but its truth. There is a reason why many implementers are already pushing ARM on server, its not only power or "micro-servers", it is better, specially the 64bit version is very clean, and a relaxed memory model means a transactional memory model is almost half done. i see it from microservers to big iron if there are enough pushers.
What is clearly a surprise is the recent times push for the single thread mantra... its *contra-natura*... and will not stick for long. Oh! well its clearly the market is driven by a lot of propaganda, propaganda is a considerable force even in IT, not only politics, but doubt it could arrest progress indefinitely. IT has been able to evolve faster than marketing campaigns, that is why traditional marketing with pervasive TV and newspaper ads, in IT, simply just doesn't make sense...
(this thread seems to move faster than i can post... i might getting obsolete in the typing lol )
Yes going below 10nm there is clearly a barrier for current lithography and else techs.
But 10nm is already 4x smaller than current 28nm... a 500mm² Nvidia titan with only 125mm²... it could easily mean chips at least 3x smaller than now( considering that some structures don't scale well) more than 20 threads per chip even for desktop/client offerings, is at hand.
The big problem is exactly IPC and the instruction parallelism of current ISA implementations. You could have a single core 3 times as big yet it wouldn't be 3x as performant. Most probably not even 2 times as performant. That is why power is such a big concern even with advanced power management, and that is why Moore's Law is said to be slowing down, just doesn't make sense to make things as big as possible or as feature rich as possible, more so because the interconnect would grow tremendously making performance even worst (that is why the photonics push)... new software or new ISA much be invented...
So at least *multithreading* even for client applications must be on the menu for the future, and that is why in long tern ARM has a good chance of being in the place that x86 is now. ARM has both power and multithreading capabilities above x86. I don't think FPGA will take the spotlight, since heterogeneous with a good dose of superior fixed function hardware can take the wind out of FPGA sails. But a truly trully specialized solution will always have market, but not that ends ups transforming FPGA into general purpose.
So ARM with its "relaxed" memory model is simply better for performance with multiple threads, which might seem a contradiction since it is used mostly for low power lower thread count portable devices, but its truth. There is a reason why many implementers are already pushing ARM on server, its not only power or "micro-servers", it is better, specially the 64bit version is very clean, and a relaxed memory model means a transactional memory model is almost half done. i see it from microservers to big iron if there are enough pushers.
What is clearly a surprise is the recent times push for the single thread mantra... its *contra-natura*... and will not stick for long. Oh! well its clearly the market is driven by a lot of propaganda, propaganda is a considerable force even in IT, not only politics, but doubt it could arrest progress indefinitely. IT has been able to evolve faster than marketing campaigns, that is why traditional marketing with pervasive TV and newspaper ads, in IT, simply just doesn't make sense...