Well, nVidia can always pester MS to push a "close to metal" codepath in DX, but I really doubt MS will want regular PCs (specially cheaper ones) to be close in performance (read, visuals) to their own console. So it's a really weird thing for MS to accept so open heartedly an improvement like that in desktop. Also, remember nVidia bought 3DFX, the creators of Glide. What else does nVidia need to actually push a close to metal API like MANTLE? I do know they have one, but they don't push it to devs (that I know of). Maybe with TWIMTBP titles?
On the OGL side of things... I don't know if OGL has a "close to metal" path, but since OGL has industrial adoption, it would make sense to have something of the like. Too bad Khronos group keeps OGL so tied to the past... Will we ever see a OGL ES for desktop, replacing OGL as a gaming API? Man I wish we could... Maybe AMD can join Khronos, haha.
Anyway, from the pcper review posted by de5_Roy, I really believe MANTLE is a great thing to have. For instance, where they don't show improvements in FPS, they show improvements in smoothness, which is actually in the same scale of importance (if the graphs they use show that, of course) than pure FPS improvements. And min FPS were improved as well.
Cheers!