Jim Keller has had tons of time in the industry working on projects since K7...if he says it will be better, I have no reason to doubt. Though, like those I know at AMD, I consider it a win if they are within 5%.
To be accurate, we are discussing what you are claiming that someone said you about what Keller said him... Also your claim is morphing at a fast rate: first, you said us that AMD "
will be better by skylake". Next you added that "
if they fall short of predictions they will be 'on par'", now you are already opening the door to 5% behind Skylake.
To match Skylake core (+- 10%), AMD would multiply the per core performance by up to a factor of eight (8)
Steamroller: 8 FLOP/core
Skylake: 64 FLOP/core,
and would beat a process disadvantage as well: 14/16nm (Glofo/TSMC) vs. Intel 10nm.
Moreover, AMD is bringing MANTLE to reduce CPU overhead. If AMD releases a CPU that is faster than anything from Intel and then brings MANTLE in final form to the arena, AMD will be competing against themselves because MANTLE would help Intel to remain competitive with an inferior CPU.
In short, this idea of AMD's 2016 x86 core outperforming Skylake on performance doesn't make sense: neither technologically, nor economically, nor strategically.