AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

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mayankleoboy1

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How did it work out for Nvidia? A year ago and a half ago, prior to this dual cards with Fermi/Maximus launching, Nvidia owned almost 90% of the professional market and AMD was in the 10-12% unit share range. Revenues were even more lopsided toward Nvidia because AMD had lower prices as well. Now that the bifurcated and more focused Keplers are out and the Maximus strategy is baked in to silicon, how are things going? How much market share did Nvidia gain? The last set of numbers SemiAccurate has seen put AMD at around 20% unit share and climbing at more than 1%/quarter. Double the cards, double the price, and double the marketshare for the competition.S|A

http://semiaccurate.com/2013/03/05/nvidia-bifurcates-their-professional-graphics-lines/

Yay for AMD
 


I started watching, then I rage quitted on the amount of loser exhibited in one tediously long video that really could have done with intermissions or a gagging order.

 


I don't know much on that either, yearing like 2.5-3 GFlops which is around the HD6970 level which was more of a cruncher than a HD7850 and 7870 so from that standpoint if it was true that is a serious amount of on die GPGPU performance.

I am inclined to believe that the number is going to be around 2GFlops, the Richland APU is in excess of a GFlop and Kaveri is expected to be around the 1.5+ mark so its feasible as AMD find ways of evolving the APU.

I am also of the opinion that AMD will unify the sockets under the FX brand, AMD themselves have said that hybrid processing is the future and the APU evolution is that, there is a dying need for x86 only. the more pertinent reason is it will see AMD cut SKU's considerably as they will not need two sockets SKU's, this saves a lot of money.

 

truegenius

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batman-superman-spiderman-apple-flash-1326654318I.jpg

apple does not support flash :p
 

mayankleoboy1

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As far as the latest rumour goes, we dont even know if AMD are going to make a non-APU desktop chip.
 

8350rocks

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Steamroller will have more IPC capability than current intel hardware...44 IPC vs 32 IPC.
 

8350rocks

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They've already stated the FX series will continue...look at their development roadmap...the desktop CPU has it's own arch all the way to excavator...we may not see it before Q1 2014...but steamroller is coming, and excavator is coming too...

The delay on steamroller came from delays involving GloFo...the architecture was ready, and they had to go back a few development stages to adapt the architecture to TSMC SOI.

TSMC SOI will also have 3 grades of 28nm stock based on an article I read a day or 2 ago, there will be highly efficient SOI for mobile devices and lap tops, there will be server grade SOI for commercial solutions and high performance SOI for desktop CPUs/GPUs
 

Cazalan

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The Haswell SoC has been talked about but doubt it will fit the power bill for smartphones. Tablets would be most likely. Broadwell 14nm may fit the smartphones but they already have the new OoO Atoms gearing up for that.
 

haswell(i.e. the soc) isn't aimed at smartphones. haswell is intel's high end part of a two-pronged strategy to penetrate tablet/pc market. atom will lead the value front. atoms will get into high end tablets as well, in case haswell fails.
 

viridiancrystal

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I have to say, I am more and more impressed by Temash every day. It seems to have the capability. If AMD can get OEMs to create some designs for them they may have a great success in that chip.

Interesting numbers I found. Bonaire (7790) is GCN 2.0, yes?
A 7850 with 14% more cores, 16% lower clock speed, and 60% higher bandwidth than a 7790 was ~23% faster, based on Tom's review.
Based on the same review, a 7790 with 40% more cores, equal clock speed, and 33% high bandwidth than a 7770 was ~26% faster while using less power

The power number is what is most surprising and impressive about this, and it bodes well for GCN 2.0. If Bonaire is not GCN 2.0, then this is mostly irrelevant.
 

8350rocks

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Kaveri, due out Q4 2013/Q1 2014...will indeed be steamroller cores...it may usher in FM3 socket, or it may be on FM2 still. If it stays on FM2 with a process shrink, that means that there will be more room for GPU cores/shaders on the die...making it even more formidable. The expectation of Kaveri is equivalent HD 7770 from the iGPU according to what I have read.
 

bobbybamf12

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It better or i will go to AMD and destroy everyone that works there!!! jk i prolly just be really disappointed!

Intel is allow to make small improvements with their cpu's. AMD has to make big leaps just to even stay in the game.

If you are correct about the ipc improvement that steamroller will bring then it won't be to far off of haswell since haswell only suppose to have a 10% improvement over ivy bridge. If intel releases an 8 core cpu then AMD only advantage would be it's pricing.

I can see intel doint this. i3-dual core
i5-quad core
i7- hex core
i7 extreme-octo core.
Of course if intel release an 8 core its going to cost a ton of money but that also mean its 6 core cpu might be cheaper.
 

bobbybamf12

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It better or i will go to AMD and destroy everyone that works there!!! jk i prolly just be really disappointed!

Intel is allow to make small improvements with their cpu's. AMD has to make big leaps just to even stay in the game.

If you are correct about the ipc improvement that steamroller will bring then it won't be to far off of haswell since haswell only suppose to have a 10% improvement over ivy bridge. If intel releases an 8 core cpu then AMD only advantage would be it's pricing.

I can see intel doint this. i3-dual core
i5-quad core
i7- hex core
i7 extreme-octo core.
Of course if intel release an 8 core its going to cost a ton of money but that also mean its 6 core cpu might be cheaper.
 

8350rocks

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current i7-3770k vs. FX8XXX series projected IPC...i5-3570k is less than the i7 and will be even more disadvantaged.

(essentially comparing 8 core/8 thread AMD vs 4 core/8 thread intel) Haven't checked on something like the 3970x...IPC there may be comparable.
 

hcl123

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ummm... i think there will be a *clear* separation between APU and what is the traditional approach that will serve the legacy server/high end ( Seamicro server will be heterogeneous APU not CPU ... i suspect).

* Hypertransport will be pervasive, **already is** ( all processors xbar including APUs is a HT switch, meaning in AMD the HT control part is the Integrated northbridge/xbar)... PCIe control will be minimized and more integrated into the Xbar, because HT and PCIe are very compatible at the "physical layer"(matter of fact is only an inversion or lane order), needing only a sideband link for additional control. So every I/O link in AMD can be HT + PCIe at the same time, that is, you can place an HT adapter and a PCIe v3 adapter, in the same physical connector, like : __________(link) ____(sideband) -> PCIe uses only the *link*, HT uses the *link* + *sideband* ( the same physical connector in a row)...

... the magic will be in the integrated controls, and so every AMD's GPGPU adapter could be *link* +*sideband*, that they will fit in any Intel platform by so using only the *link* for PCIe( intel platforms of course will not use "sideband" or HT)... on AMD platforms they will use both and so be a HT link, and so ready for the last phase of HSA with cache coherency(HT is fundamental for HSA).

* On APU, besides exterior I/O PCIe+HT links, they will have "silicon interposed" 2.5D DRAM (probably GDDR5/6/*), and the bulky exterior DRAM channels could be on the "silicon interposer" not the APU chips, which will have Hypertransport links to this stacked DRAM pile controls(usually the bottom chip on the DRAM stack), DRAM bottom pile control chip which in its turn will have TSV to the 'on interposer' DDR control for exterior DIMM ... this could give a "simulacrum" of continuing with the Moore's Law by going 3D...

* Excavator probably will have at least *3 thread per module ( probably 4)* with separated fetch engines for each thread with an L0, the same *VERTICAL MULTITHREADING*, and perhaps 5 Heterogeneous cores/clusters on the same CMT scheme; 2 FlexFPU + 2 Integer + 1 Bit Manipulation/encrypt/compress...

So Excavator i suspect will be pretty much BD design where it matters, because one iteration was not very good doesn't mean the design "philosophy" isn't the best ever, for the kind of "heterogeneous" chips that AMD is pursuing with HSA. And if this HSA has plenty of advantages at many levels, and a guru behind (John Gustafson), i dare to say AMD design is already superior to what intel has (just give them time)... and its BD oriented alright... matter of fact the Jaguar evolution i suspect will be even more modular, which is a requisite if they want to have a "clean" transition to ARM variants, or even mix ARM with x86 on the same chip( intel has none of this "potential" flexibility)...

 

hcl123

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Until stated otherwise, i think never was, HD8xxx will be GCN 1 with a little tweak. Most of gains is supposed to come from the all uncore and cache on those GPGPUs ( why ppl only sees "cores" is behind believe, much more performance is dropped on the floor by all the non-cores, even on BDver1...clearly indicated by AMD with the evolution so far from Zambezi to Richland... the same with GCN, before beefing cores to GCN 2 they must prepare and tweak the all non-core).



AFAIK TSMC doesn't have and doesn't plan to have SOI in any variant. If "Excavator" is to be SOI only IBM or STMicro-> but fabbed at GloFo. IBM will be 22nm FD-SOI in high-performance variant with all body bias and all stress/strain techs on the books(finfet or FD-SOI + finfet for cache only at 16/14nm). STMicro has already planned 20nm FD-SOI for 2015/16 and its offered and can be fabbed at GloFo.

http://www.techdesignforums.com/blog/2012/06/14/ibm-leti-strained-soi/

http://www.electronicsweekly.com/articles/11/06/2012/53867/globalfoundries-opens-up-28nm-20nm-fd-soi-process-to-all-comers.htm

PD-SOI pretty much 28nm (*IF* to happen for Steamroller) is the end of the line. The same way "planar" 20nm bulk is pretty much the end of line to (can't scale further). Then only finfet or FD-SOI. But finfet only at 14nm, while FD-SOI could be already at 28nm ( the 3Ghz eQuad ARM demo of STMicro is a monster of a demo)..

And FD-SOI is proved can scale up to 10nm, so the rational decision for AMD would be to jump FD-SOI with both feet (LESS EXPENSIVE to fab than planar bulk or finfet on bulk, and with much better performance), and forget about 20nm planar bulk that is EOL anyway... but AMD is knowned to make a lot of irrational decisions...

http://www.advancedsubstratenews.com/2012/02/fd-soi-a-look-at-recent-consortium-resultspart-1-of-3-manufacturing/

http://www.advancedsubstratenews.com/2012/04/chenming-hu-soi-can-empower-new-transistors-to-10nm-and-beyond/

http://www.advancedsubstratenews.com/2012/11/ibs-study-concludes-fd-soi-most-cost-effective-technology-choice-at-28nm-and-20nm/

[EDIT: usually those guys are very well informed, don't know from where the author gets his info, but it says Intel is looking at FD-SOI for beyond the 14nm node ... what ? no more finfet? LOL http://lp-hp.com/blog/2012/07/12/soi-becomes-essential-at-20nm/ ]



Neither will be AMD able to get much more from traditional CPUs ( i suspect so, unless BIG breakthroughs, which i can't see from where, CPU with 15% each generation is already pretty damn good). What can scale quite high is highly data parallel models & execution... AMD has HSA, Intel has MIC...

 

mlscrow

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truegenius

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