AMD CPUs, SoC Rumors and Speculations Temp. thread 2

[-Fran-]

Sometimes you don't need a leader who understands the technology but who understands the market and knows how to move you in the right direction for a profit.

Look at Ford back when Alan Mulally was CEO. He came from Boeing and probably knew very little about cars and the tech behind them compared to planes. Yet when the recession hit and GM and Chrysler were both hurting for cash Ford was fine and needed no government assistance and now is profitable and making very highly rated cars. Hell we are even finally getting once European exclusives like the Focus RS.

It is all about having good leadership, not just someone who knows technology. I can actually say that most people who really know technology are also very bad at making good business decisions.

Your example doesn't fit this case. This is an equity firm, not a CEO change.

A more accurate parallel or example would be JP Morgan taking over operations of Ford (for example). Do you think they would deliver better products investing more money or will dry out Ford for a quick buck instead?

I might be alone in the room, but I'm glad SL didn't get a stake in AMD.

Cheers!

 

[jimmysmitty]

Sometimes you don't need a leader who understands the technology but who understands the market and knows how to move you in the right direction for a profit.

Look at Ford back when Alan Mulally was CEO. He came from Boeing and probably knew very little about cars and the tech behind them compared to planes. Yet when the recession hit and GM and Chrysler were both hurting for cash Ford was fine and needed no government assistance and now is profitable and making very highly rated cars. Hell we are even finally getting once European exclusives like the Focus RS.

It is all about having good leadership, not just someone who knows technology. I can actually say that most people who really know technology are also very bad at making good business decisions.

Your example doesn't fit this case. This is an equity firm, not a CEO change.

A more accurate parallel or example would be JP Morgan taking over operations of Ford (for example). Do you think they would deliver better products investing more money or will dry out Ford for a quick buck instead?

I might be alone in the room, but I'm glad SL didn't get a stake in AMD.

Cheers!

They might have put better leadership in place is all I am saying. Equity firms don't run the company but put in who they feel will run it best.

Still we will never know but AMD could use some cash now.

 

[gamerk316]

I'm very interested to see how much losses they report for this quarter; if it's north of about $250 Million again, then AMD is in IMMEDIATE financial trouble.

SL wanting to purchase a stake at below market value basically indicates that they think AMD stock, long term, is likely to fall.

 

[juanrga]

I'm very interested to see how much losses they report for this quarter; if it's north of about $250 Million again, then AMD is in IMMEDIATE financial trouble.

SL wanting to purchase a stake at below market value basically indicates that they think AMD stock, long term, is likely to fall.

I expect AMD to report a double-digit drop in revenue. I am also awaiting further cancellations/delays of projects and I doubt that Lisa Su will remain one year more. AMD stock will fall of course and will hit historical minimums.

 

[Vogner16]

http://wccftech.com/amd-bristol-stoney-ridge-apus-listed/

also this is a good read on excavator cores being the first Carrizo style APU for AM4.

to be honest it does match up with what they did in llano and BD not in APU's until trinity, as llano as you remember was all old tech on new node then 8150 came out as a new core design

 

[Vogner16]

I'm very interested to see how much losses they report for this quarter; if it's north of about $250 Million again, then AMD is in IMMEDIATE financial trouble.

SL wanting to purchase a stake at below market value basically indicates that they think AMD stock, long term, is likely to fall.

I expect AMD to report a double-digit drop in revenue. I am also awaiting further cancellations/delays of projects and I doubt that Lisa Su will remain one year more. AMD stock will fall of course and will hit historical minimums.

http://wccftech.com/amd-regaining-gpu-market-share-nvidia/

once again not solid evidence but remember fury and 300 series did come out after the latest quarter info we have and they seem to be (atleast the 300's) really good for the $

 

[jimmysmitty]

Problem is that it took a year for them to drop 20% of the market share. It will take them at least that to regain the same amount.

And part of the 38% was due to the crypto currency craze that was still going on into 2014 which AMD excelled at while nVidia did not. The end of it probably flooded the market with 7900s and R2 200s when they no longer were viable.

 

[Vogner16]

Problem is that it took a year for them to drop 20% of the market share. It will take them at least that to regain the same amount.

And part of the 38% was due to the crypto currency craze that was still going on into 2014 which AMD excelled at while nVidia did not. The end of it probably flooded the market with 7900s and R2 200s when they no longer were viable.

this is completely true I myself looked last year and saw a ebayer selling 3 7970's for $300 that had been bought for mining but never used. I didn't win that auction but did get a 7970 PwrClr for $130. if you look the market is still flooded with used 290x's (stock cooler) and 7970's for $250 to $130 respectively. if it takes a year to regain that 20% which they wont unless there is some craze like bitcoin in the year, then I would only expect a gain to 30% total share, which for amd is historically consistent. I think we will see gains this quarter up to around 22% from the 18% they were last quarter.

as I said earlier. 1.66 stock price... NOW is the time to buy. amd will get better and get at least to $3.50 before they dump again. that's a 100% increase in price. aka $1000 invested will be $2000 by 2016.

in my mind look at what is coming. for the last few years amd only had BD based cores in the barrel which we all knew would suck. graphics were good always and now we have HBM delivered. 2016 is the new core design just like in 2011 with BD look at the stocks. give it a year AMD will return. and if its a success they will rise way above 3.5 if it fails once again look at 2012 and 13 the stocks fell but slowly and that gives us plenty of time to sell stocks for a nice profit until this cycle happens again! this is a hell of an opportunity!

 

[salgado18]

and I doubt that Lisa Su will remain one year more.

I believe that letting her go will be a big mistake. She's leading the company, she has a mid-term plan, and started it already. Get someone else in her place, and he will have to continue someone else's plan, which not always goes right. I say (as if I could) let her finish the plan, then evaluate, then decide if she goes or not.

jimmysmitty said:
And part of the 38% was due to the crypto currency craze that was still going on into 2014 which AMD excelled at while nVidia did not. The end of it probably flooded the market with 7900s and R2 200s when they no longer were viable.

I bought my 7970 for Lite Coin mining, which I half did for a month, then stopped. Also, I couldn't be bothered to upgrate to any newer card, since this one is enough for 1080p even today.

But that's not true for CPU, I got an FX-8120 one month before Piledriver launch (yes, many bad decisions), and while it's a solid processor, there were times I wish I had something newer. Since AMD did nothing much better than the FX-8350 (and overclocked/expensive editions), and I refuse to go the Intel way, I'm waiting for Zen to upgrade, but I also know i'm a very small minority there.

Could AMD be better if they launched Steamroller/Excavator editions of the FX CPUs? I mean, they are not bad at all, and apart from heat/power consumption, they are better than similarly priced i3's and i5's.

 

[jdwii]

"they are better than similarly priced i3's and i5's." Strongly disagree myself the FX 6300 is however great for the money at 100$. I'd much rather have a low-end I5 then a 8350-8370 and tbh i had a 8350 and a 4360 I3 and i'd much rather take the I3. The lower-end I3s with less cache suck however comapred to the FX series.

Coming from a extremely outdated board design its hard to recommend any Amd FX CPU.

 

[8350rocks]

Lisa Su is an administrative engineer. While those are useful, and handy to have...it does not necessarily make them a good chief executive.

TBH, Rory Read was probably the better option all this time...but that ship has sailed.

 

[jimmysmitty]

"they are better than similarly priced i3's and i5's." Strongly disagree myself the FX 6300 is however great for the money at 100$. I'd much rather have a low-end I5 then a 8350-8370 and tbh i had a 8350 and a 4360 I3 and i'd much rather take the I3. The lower-end I3s with less cache suck however comapred to the FX series.

Coming from a extremely outdated board design its hard to recommend any Amd FX CPU.

For me it is hard to recommend a platform that is pretty much dead right now. At least if someone gets a i3 on LGA1150 right now they can still probably upgrade to an i5/i7 in a few years and extend the life of the platform.

AM3 is pretty much a "FX 8/9 series" is the best you will get no matter what as Zen is AM4.

Personally I would prefer to get people to buy a i5 4/6 series now that will actually last probably 5 years instead of an FX that is currently outdated.

 

[-Fran-]

Lisa Su is an administrative engineer. While those are useful, and handy to have...it does not necessarily make them a good chief executive.

TBH, Rory Read was probably the better option all this time...but that ship has sailed.

I heard once: "a great leader is someone smart enough to know when to ask and a bad leader is someone smart enough to know everything and not ask a single thing". I think Mr. Read was the one that asked around and Mrs. Su the one that doesn't.

In any case, we need to give Mrs. Su more time. She has made 2 big moves so far, let's see how they pan out. Salgado18 is right about that.

Cheers!

 

[gamerk316]

Lisa Su is an administrative engineer. While those are useful, and handy to have...it does not necessarily make them a good chief executive.

TBH, Rory Read was probably the better option all this time...but that ship has sailed.

I heard once: "a great leader is someone smart enough to know when to ask and a bad leader is someone smart enough to know everything and not ask a single thing". I think Mr. Read was the one that asked around and Mrs. Su the one that doesn't.

In any case, we need to give Mrs. Su more time. She has made 2 big moves so far, let's see how they pan out. Salgado18 is right about that.

Cheers!

Time is not an asset AMD has a lot of anymore.

 

[gamerk316]

Two weeks or so until AMD releases its financial results.

*popcorn*

 

[cdrkf]

Heh they're not going to be pretty, and I can't see much changing until Zen is out (even if it's mediocre as many anticipate, it's still got to be better than what they've got now so I'd bet they'll pick up a bit from where we are now).

 

[-Fran-]

Time is not an asset AMD has a lot of anymore.

And I agree with you on that, but there's little to nothing a CEO can do in less than a year, other than sell the company.

Plus, the timescales AMD has currently are half external imposed timeframes and the other half their own pace. Even more, after that big shake, I bet some mid and short term plans inside the GPU unit were shoved, so even more "silence" for the time being.

In regards to the financial results. Yeah, not expecting miracles either. I wonder how much joy and self-satisfaction pats in the back some around here will get with the numbers, haha.

Cheers!

 

[gamerk316]

The two numbers worth watching: How much profit/loss AMD has, and how much cash on hand they have remaining. Those two will give an indication if AMD can even last to Zen, which I am starting to question.

 

[Vogner16]

you doubt if amd can last to zen. I ask what expenses do you see in that period makes you think this way. given current products available and timeline for new products when will amd's losses come to where there cash balances to 0. if they lose 200 mill a quarter then it would be q3 2016 (summit ridge, Bristol ridge) when they fail. we know they are not losing that much even last quarter the worst quarter they will have all year. q3 had new gpu's and q4 is Christmas.

 

[jimmysmitty]

you doubt if amd can last to zen. I ask what expenses do you see in that period makes you think this way. given current products available and timeline for new products when will amd's losses come to where there cash balances to 0. if they lose 200 mill a quarter then it would be q3 2016 (summit ridge, Bristol ridge) when they fail. we know they are not losing that much even last quarter the worst quarter they will have all year. q3 had new gpu's and q4 is Christmas.

They had new GPUs where the top end has had very limited quantity. Even our large local parts retailer has never had a Fury or Fury X in stock, I have to go there a lot for work.

I can't say AMD will fail but they have been bleeding cash for the most part of the past 7 years. That is not good.

Short of cash infusions from third parites, selling off the FABs and the settlement from Intel they have not had a very profitable bast few years.

 

[juanrga]

Heh they're not going to be pretty, and I can't see much changing until Zen is out (even if it's mediocre as many anticipate, it's still got to be better than what they've got now so I'd bet they'll pick up a bit from where we are now).

Zen is planned to appear only as 8-core CPU for HEDT, which is a niche of a niche market. Mainstream high volume market will be served by Excavator-based APUs for AM4 socket until AMD releases Zen-based APUs one year latter, and then it will not compete against Skylake but against Cannolake.

 

[Cazalan]

The two numbers worth watching: How much profit/loss AMD has, and how much cash on hand they have remaining. Those two will give an indication if AMD can even last to Zen, which I am starting to question.

Q3 should be their best QTR of the year. It's when the revenue comes in for the buildup for holiday inventory.

 

[Baralis]

http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2015/10/amd_struggling_to_keep_up_with.html

Advanced Micro Devices said it will cut about 500 jobs, or 5 percent of its workforce, part of a restructuring meant to streamline its business and reduce costs as the chipmaker struggles to compete with Intel in personal-computer processors.

 

[etayorius]

Mubadala owns about 20% of AMD, why are they not investing when AMD needs it more? you would think that they would know of ZEN performance, but they are not really doing anything... makes you wonder the actual performance of ZEN.

 

[juanrga]

http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2015/10/amd_struggling_to_keep_up_with.html

Advanced Micro Devices said it will cut about 500 jobs, or 5 percent of its workforce, part of a restructuring meant to streamline its business and reduce costs as the chipmaker struggles to compete with Intel in personal-computer processors.

They are preparing itself for the band numbers are going to come.

http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-2699237/amd-cpus-soc-rumors-speculations-temp-thread/page-12.html#16709174