AMD still confident , though set to miss Q1 numbers

[BaronMatrix]

The Ultimate Rag is reporting that AMD is set o miss their ~$1.1B in revenue for Q1. It is unknown how much impact graphics and chipsets, etc. will contribute but the company is said to be "cash-happy" for the two quarters before Barcelona.

Linkage!

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.

 

[gr8mikey]

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.

With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

 

[bfellow]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

 

[BaldEagle]

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.

With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

Based on the volume of AMD traded in the last week there aren't a lot of those balls of steel investors around either. We should see a couple of dollars shaved off the stock price after they release the quarterly results and everyone finds out how bad the revenue "miss" translates to capital losses.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.

With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

Based on the volume of AMD traded in the last week there aren't a lot of those balls of steel investors around either. We should see a couple of dollars shaved off the stock price after they release the quarterly results and everyone finds out how bad the revenue "miss" translates to capital losses.


Or right before hey announce they drop Barcelona benches and every doubter has a heart attack.
But then I guess that's wishful thinkng too.

 

[sailer]

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.

With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

And then the chant will begin, "How low can they go?".

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort.

Hey this is what happens when your up against a bully. You have to have balls of steel.

 

[BaldEagle]

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort.

The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[JCon]

Having cash available is not necessarily a good thing in an R&D heavy industry.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort.

The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


I guess it must be great being privy to what's going on INSIDE AMD.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Having cash available is not necessarily a good thing in an R&D heavy industry.

Why? There's too much temptation?

 

[JCon]

No... Sometimes its better to have that cash invested in new R&D projects, expansion, infrastructure, etc.

What I'm saying is that having 6 months of cash is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort.

The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Dang, talk about a hit to operating cash flow - YIKES. 8O

 

[Major_Spittle]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

 

[BaronMatrix]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."

 

[BaldEagle]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

If the number ffrom the Inquirer are real (remember we are talking about a dubious news source) the hit on revenue is 50% from the January estimates and 25% alone for March. This indicates AMD has no idea of the future demand as they can't even predict 30 days into the future let alone 6 months. AMD cannot sustain their businness at the current price level and the cuts next month are going to burn through their remaining cash at a phenomenal rate. Cash reserves as of January were estimated to be 6 months at their current levels of expenditure and without any quarterly information or major announcements we must assume the level of expenditures remained relatively constant. With a revenue shortfall of $800M for the quarter I would have to agree with the Major that Barcelona is too far out to save them there isn't enough cash to get to there from here. Stock dilution could attempt to cover the shortfall and make it to production but without solid number for Barcelona dilution will crater the stock price as there aren't many buyers for AMD stock.

 

[00h00m]

The market price of stock generally is not leveraged off of the day to day actions of a company. Analysts are paid to do just that, analyze. They have already looked at AMD's Q1 and Q2 woes and potential for new products in Q3 and Q4 and probably into 2008 when making their buy/hold/sell recommendations.

Certainly we all feel tuned in to the happenings of AMD and Intel because we read the likes of the inquirer and TG Forumz, but rest assured that the institutions that are making multi-million dollar purchases of stock have done their homework. Granted that does not account for unforseen things popping up here and there, but the price of the stock today is a balance of current sales problems and future market share growth and profitability, and you can bet on that... they have.

 

[1Tanker]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."Designing booklets about Intel, to hand out at trade shows.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Designing booklets about Intel, to hand out at trade shows.

Actually, we janitors do it in between toilet seats.

 

[Major_Spittle]

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.

Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."

I was more suggesting that there are problems with Barcelona and that is why we see no demos/benchmarks about it. Nobody really knows how far their ramp is right now or even if they have a ramp going yet. Maybe they don't have a process yet that is worthy of a committed ramp due to horrible yeilds or maybe they have a killer defect in the process that they are having problems fixing. Let's face it, the 65nm transitors they have released so far are not the greatest.

Have they even sent out release candidates to the OEMs for Barcelona yet???

Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.

 

[gr8mikey]

What about the mobo manufacturers? Surely they must have samples by now to make sure the boards and BIOS are ready when launch happens. If they have sent samples, I find it very surprising that there has not been one single benchmark leaked thus far.

 

[Major_Spittle]

I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.

 

[qcmadness]

I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.

There are multiple reasons for AMD not to release early benches:
1. To avoid the market to stop purchasing the current AMD products.
2. To try to reduce the time for Intel to react.

 

[1Tanker]

I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.

There are multiple reasons for AMD not to release early benches:
1. To avoid the market to stop purchasing the current AMD products.
2. To try to reduce the time for Intel to react. Both.. reasons that Intel had, yet it didn't stop them.