AMD Stock Plummets 25% in Response to K10 Release - Investors Scared

[pip_seeker]

About that "drunken sailer" remark. I don't print money when I'm drunk, I spend it!

As to the rest of what you wrote, its pretty much true. However, I'm a contrarian investor who buys when the market price is down. Its easy to buy when the market is doing well, but when stock A is selling at $40 in good economic times, for instance, the likelyhood of its raising higher is not much, However, if stock A drops to $10 in bad economic times, then it becomes a smart buy, because when good economic times come again, it will raise back to the area of $40, where it was in the beginning.

The "drunken sailor" remark was symbolic of someone who cares less of what will happen to him or others... It wasn't necessarily meaning anything negative of sailors in general.

In regards to how you buy stock, I can understand your reasoning... although it's much more risky of an investment because if a stock is down there is no reason to believe it won't continue to go down. Additionally what could happen is a reverse split to raise stock price artificially as to evade delisting or other serious problems... not that AMD is anywhere close to this. But to show it is a more risky venture. Then you have less shares and the price jumps in proportion to what the reverse split was. This will give it even further room to fall......

reverse splits are fairly uncommon, but they can happen.

 

[bobwya]

...

AMD being down is just a part of the overall market. No doubt, both Barcelona and Phenom play a part of it, but the ATI division should be helping it greatly with the 3850 and 3870 cards. I think AMD should hold through under normal stock trading, but the bigger question is whether or not it will get squashed from a herd mentality that's taking the rest of the market with it. That, along with the high debt it has to service. The whole market is suffering, and AMD is part of that market.

I agree with all the comments that the Phenom is one of a number of symptom and not the reason for AMD stock sinking. The market isn't that smart!! They can see a company hemmoraging money though!!

Actually (in response to earlier posts) the Phenom architecture is quite well engineered. The problem is simply that AMD don't have the $$$ to research better process technologies to build the actual chips... I am sure the chips would fly if they weren't running 1Ghz too slow...

Personally I don't think ATI are doing too great either. Not since they haven't held the performance crown since the Radeon X1900XT(X)!! If I was getting a new card just now it wouldn't be ATI (and I have an 512Mb X1950 Pro just now for the record)!! They are also aiming for the more budget end as the 8800 GTX/Ultra 768Mb still hold the top (v.) expensive end!! That means lower revenues per card. ATI really need to pull another 1900 type architectural leap out of the hat to help AMD out a bit - till they can get bought out anyway....

Bob

 

[apache_lives]

http://www.vr-zone.com/articles/Less_Than_Rosy_140W_TDP_For_Phenom/5416.html things get worse

 

[JeanLuc]

Yes, it is serious...that is not the question. The question is the reason why the stock is falling is....i.e. is it phenom, or the credit/Dow?

If its the credit markets/dow...then tomorrow, the stock may very well be up 25%. If its Phenom....well then not so much.

There losing because there losing $500 million a quarter (see front page news), the competition provides an overall better product, lenders are tightening there belts, money is more expensive and AMD have a piles of debt on there books which they need to service and pay back.

 

[spongebob]

It might actually surrprise you that amd is not in financial trouble.

Link(s), please?

They lost alot of money during 2007, but they have probably something like the same amount again in spare cash.

Link(s), please?

Sales are rising, costs are falling.

Link(s), please?

All the new lines have entered the market. With these they will quite likely make quite alot of money next year.

Quite alot? Link(s), please?

New gpus are good, new cpus will find their way into cheap oem machines in the hundreds of thousands.

Link(s) supporting "hundreds of thousands", please?

They were (in financial trouble?), now theyre not.

Link(s), please?

 

[spoonboy]

Link(s), please?

Link(s), please?

Link(s), please?

Quite alot? Link(s), please?

Link(s) supporting "hundreds of thousands", please?

Link(s), please?

Oh spongebob, take your head from out of your bottom. Keep up with the news concerning this subject.

On the points youve brought up, I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc. Remember the gigahertz wars.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc.

I don't agree. The average user doesn't give a crap about native or MCM chip packages, in fact, they wouldn't even understand. They care about the one thing that is hurting AMD so much, price. AMD is bleeding so they can compete on a value level.

Those who would care about a "true quad core" also would be the type of people who would look at benchmarks. They'd see he Q6600 wipe the floor of any "true quad core" and thus that argument goes out the window.
AMD doesn't have the money for marketing as well!

 

[spongebob]

Oh spongebob, take your head from out of your bottom.

My, aren't you a class act...

Keep up with the news concerning this subject.

So, no links then, eh?

On the points youve brought up,

No sir, you brought them up. I was merely wondering whether you were offering opinion or whether you might be able to site any reptutable sources that support you point of view.

I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

I never said they wouldn't sell well. You tossed out a guesstimate of hundreds of thousands... I'm just curious where you got your numbers.

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc. Remember the gigahertz wars.

One might also argue that being able to claim the performance crown at the high end is also a valuable marketing tool - "The Q6600, from the makers of the best performing x86 processor". Sounds silly, but that's exactly what ATI did with the 1900 - on the box: "From the makers of the fastest GPU on the planet".


Having said all that, any links to support your other assertions?

It might actually surrprise you that amd is not in financial trouble.
They lost alot of money during 2007, but they have probably something like the same amount again in spare cash.
Sales are rising, costs are falling.
All the new lines have entered the market. With these they will quite likely make quite alot of money next year.
They were (in financial trouble?), now theyre not.

 

[yomamafor1]

Oh spongebob, take your head from out of your bottom. Keep up with the news concerning this subject.

You're very hilarious. You claims "news", when you post a link from more than 2 years ago?

On the points youve brought up, I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

Let's see. 8800GT has completely sold out, while RV670s are having mail in rebates. I wonder which is more "attractive" to the market?

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc.

Here's a simple marketing 101 class for you. There are two ways to insert a product into the market, depending on how much utility a product gives to the buyers. For those high end product, it must have superior performance for them to be priced significantly higher. Since it will only attract a small amount of people (enthusiasts for example), the availability of them doesn't have to be massive.

On the other hand, for those products to be classified as "medium", or even "low", it must have ample supply, as well as lower prices to satisfy the market demand. When an average consumer looks at the product, he/she doesn't care about performance, but his/her price range, as well as how available they are.

Phenom doesn't have the performance of QX9650 to be classified in the high end, nor does it has availability comparable to Q6600. What's more embarrassing is, the similar costing Phenom cannot even outperform a Q6600, an one year old product. "Mom and Pops" don't care about the sounding of the name, but the cost. If AMD cannot lower the cost of Phenom to those Core 2 Duo's level, then where's the incentives for people to purchase them?

Remember the gigahertz wars.

So we're talking about "native" war huh? "Native quad core", "Native tri core", "Native dual core", all can't compete to a product that's been launched since last year.

When Nehalem debuts, what is AMD going to start? "elegancy" war? "innovative" war? Ridiculous.

 

[spoonboy]

You're very hilarious. You claims "news", when you post a link from more than 2 years ago?

On the points youve brought up, I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

Let's see. 8800GT has completely sold out, while RV670s are having mail in rebates. I wonder which is more "attractive" to the market?

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc.

Here's a simple marketing 101 class for you. There are two ways to insert a product into the market, depending on how much utility a product gives to the buyers. For those high end product, it must have superior performance for them to be priced significantly higher. Since it will only attract a small amount of people (enthusiasts for example), the availability of them doesn't have to be massive.

On the other hand, for those products to be classified as "medium", or even "low", it must have ample supply, as well as lower prices to satisfy the market demand. When an average consumer looks at the product, he/she doesn't care about performance, but his/her price range, as well as how available they are.

Phenom doesn't have the performance of QX9650 to be classified in the high end, nor does it has availability comparable to Q6600. What's more embarrassing is, the similar costing Phenom cannot even outperform a Q6600, an one year old product. "Mom and Pops" don't care about the sounding of the name, but the cost. If AMD cannot lower the cost of Phenom to those Core 2 Duo's level, then where's the incentives for people to purchase them?

Remember the gigahertz wars.

So we're talking about "native" war huh? "Native quad core", "Native tri core", "Native dual core", all can't compete to a product that's been launched since last year.

When Nehalem debuts, what is AMD going to start? "elegancy" war? "innovative" war? Ridiculous.

I didnt post links that were 2 years old. Where did i do that? That was another user I think.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

I didnt post links that were 2 years old. Where did i do that? That was another user I think.

They're referring to a common AMD Fanboy tactic of quoting greatly outdate news back from the K8 VS. Netburst glory days of AMD.

The post they are most recently referring to happened in this thread, but it was not posted by you:

http://www.tomshardware.com/forum/page-246446_28_80.html#t1766067

Regardless, you've made a lot of claims, such as AMD having globs of cash and no financial problems which you can't really seem to back up with factual sources of data such as:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMD&annual

 

[spoonboy]

To the last 3 guys who quoted/replied off my post, yes it might sound like a load of hokum, but take OFF your informed person hat and put ON your uninformed one. Those who dont take an interest in pcs or gaming, or no nothing about substantial about the general subject, can both easily be baffled and impressed by the words "native quad core" or what have you. Numbers and impressive sounding names and features CAN sway many a uninformed consumer when confronted by them by the salesman or tv or newprint adverts upon pondering or buying a new / first pc. Yes it sounds guff but yes it is very much marketable. Yes it iss dumn but architectural specifications and impressive adjectives are to consumers what shiny things are to magpies. Hence p4s were very successful products for intel, hence amd and cyrix used the pr/+ system to mark their products, hence people will buy cheap crap gpus with 512mb of vram because they think that high number has an effect or donates real ability. You can debate the merits and falsehoods of this entire way people are irrationally influenced by advertising, but gentleman, it is real, it is happening right now, and it will continue to go on.

The gigahertz wars were indeed pathetic, and it eventually all came a little undone for intel, but win it, in that they pulled the wool over many peoples eyes and made alot of money from a poor product, they certainly did. I know I know a better product makes better advertising, but a poor product can also be spun very well. #see above.

 

[spoonboy]

They're referring to a common AMD Fanboy tactic of quoting greatly outdate news back from the K8 VS. Netburst glory days of AMD.

The post they are most recently referring to happened in this thread, but it was not posted by you:

http://www.tomshardware.com/forum/page-246446_28_80.html#t1766067

Regardless, you've made a lot of claims, such as AMD having globs of cash and no financial problems which you can't really seem to back up with factual sources of data such as:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMD&annual

Glad thats sorted then! no im am not an amd fanboy as I dont have any amd or ati parts in my system, although I do feel a lot of doom and gloom surrounds a company that is not actually as unhealthy as it seems, and so I feel the need to address the baying mob goading along its demise.

"Regardless, you've made a lot of claims" - and so sir, have you (oh I love this 'pistols at dawn' language!).

"The post they are most recently referring to happened in this thread, but it was not posted by you:" they!? I thought it was just one person?

Well, I write posts and surf the forums and other websites during quiet periods at work, where I still am now, so I havent got the time and truthfully, the inclanation to find evidence for every statement I make. I simply assumed a knowledge, passing or otherwise, of media reports citing amd's finances. Well, I will have a look for the one about the 'gobs of cash'.

...fortsetzung folgt!

 

[yomamafor1]

To the last 3 guys who quoted/replied off my post, yes it might sound like a load of hokum, but take OFF your informed person hat and put ON your uninformed one. Those who dont take an interest in pcs or gaming, or no nothing about substantial about the general subject, can both easily be baffled and impressed by the words "native quad core" or what have you.

But again, if someone who's not enthusiasts, why would a quad core interest them? For the group you just described, they could've still live in "gigahertz > anything". Those people could've buy a Dell, an Hp, or a Gateway. Do they have Phenom in their product lineup?

For the enthusiasts crowd, its pretty obvious how well Phenom is selling. You can look around this forum, and see how many people actually bought Phenom, and how many people bought Q6600.

Who will really buy Phenom? Have you asked that question yourself?

Numbers and impressive sounding names and features CAN sway many a uninformed consumer when confronted by them by the salesman or tv or newprint adverts upon pondering or buying a new / first pc. Yes it sounds guff but yes it is very much marketable. Yes it iss dumn but architectural specifications and impressive adjectives are to consumers what shiny things are to magpies. Hence p4s were very successful products for intel, hence amd and cyrix used the pr/+ system to mark their products, hence people will buy cheap crap gpus with 512mb of vram because they think that high number has an effect or donates real ability. You can debate the merits and falsehoods of this entire way people are irrationally influenced by advertising, but gentleman, it is real, it is happening right now, and it will continue to go on.

That is assuming, AMD pours in a sizable amount of PR into spinning. Unfortunately, AMD doesn't do that, and has no financial mean to pull off what Intel did to P4.

The gigahertz wars were indeed pathetic, and it eventually all came a little undone for intel, but win it, in that they pulled the wool over many peoples eyes and made alot of money from a poor product, they certainly did. I know I know a better product makes better advertising, but a poor product can also be spun very well. #see above.

Again, Intel poured in large amount of money into PR. AMD doesn't.

 

[spoonboy]

You're very hilarious. You claims "news", when you post a link from more than 2 years ago?

On the points youve brought up, I will say that that it is nailed on the 3850 & 3870 will sell very well, given the buzz around them at the present time. Saying they wont is like saying the 320mb gts wouldnt sell well, when it came out, or some other good 'great performance for the money' card from the past.

Let's see. 8800GT has completely sold out, while RV670s are having mail in rebates. I wonder which is more "attractive" to the market?

AMD are aiming low with the phenom I would speculate. That is not going for the top performance segment of the market, but the low and medium range, and a 'new', 'true' 'quad-core' cpu is exceedingly attractive from a marketing point of view. Impressive sounding and pressing all the right buttons in the minds of 'mom and pop' looking in the shops and online vendors for their first/next pc.

Here's a simple marketing 101 class for you. There are two ways to insert a product into the market, depending on how much utility a product gives to the buyers. For those high end product, it must have superior performance for them to be priced significantly higher. Since it will only attract a small amount of people (enthusiasts for example), the availability of them doesn't have to be massive.

On the other hand, for those products to be classified as "medium", or even "low", it must have ample supply, as well as lower prices to satisfy the market demand. When an average consumer looks at the product, he/she doesn't care about performance, but his/her price range, as well as how available they are.

Phenom doesn't have the performance of QX9650 to be classified in the high end, nor does it has availability comparable to Q6600. What's more embarrassing is, the similar costing Phenom cannot even outperform a Q6600, an one year old product. "Mom and Pops" don't care about the sounding of the name, but the cost. If AMD cannot lower the cost of Phenom to those Core 2 Duo's level, then where's the incentives for people to purchase them?

Remember the gigahertz wars.

So we're talking about "native" war huh? "Native quad core", "Native tri core", "Native dual core", all can't compete to a product that's been launched since last year.

When Nehalem debuts, what is AMD going to start? "elegancy" war? "innovative" war? Ridiculous.

No there is also a third way, to release your product in dribbles in a sort of pre-production 'beta' form, which AMD have been doing with phenom. And im pretty certain - sorry no links here trainspotters - that they are being bought up as soon as they come in. Hence the price. Im talking u.k prices here. If it gets released, it will sell, the only question is in what kind of quantities.

"Let's see. 8800GT has completely sold out, while RV670s are having mail in rebates. I wonder which is more "attractive" to the market?" all sniping aside, ...links? if its a quality issues seeing rv670s going back to manufacturers/suppliers, I do believe there was a faulty early batch of 8800gts as well. But the gpu argument is a whole different story. The 'buzz' around both cards is very strong, despite personal persuasions by anyone here, the inescapable fact is that baring any silly problems like chronic medium term supply shortages, still very early to say that about either manufacturers products, both will Im am sure sell a great deal.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

"Regardless, you've made a lot of claims" - and so sir, have you (oh I love this 'pistols at dawn' language!).

The difference is that I back my claims up (many times, but not all the time) with facts. You just make claims and NEVER back them up with facts.

If I post about AMD's finances, I reference stock prices, assets, debt, etc. You merely just say, "Well, I'm an optimist so I believe they are doing well despite having alarming losses that have sent their stock from $40 a share down to $9."

 

[spoonboy]

But again, if someone who's not enthusiasts, why would a quad core interest them? For the group you just described, they could've still live in "gigahertz > anything". Those people could've buy a Dell, an Hp, or a Gateway. Do they have Phenom in their product lineup?

For the enthusiasts crowd, its pretty obvious how well Phenom is selling. You can look around this forum, and see how many people actually bought Phenom, and how many people bought Q6600.

Who will really buy Phenom? Have you asked that question yourself?

Numbers and impressive sounding names and features CAN sway many a uninformed consumer when confronted by them by the salesman or tv or newprint adverts upon pondering or buying a new / first pc. Yes it sounds guff but yes it is very much marketable. Yes it iss dumn but architectural specifications and impressive adjectives are to consumers what shiny things are to magpies. Hence p4s were very successful products for intel, hence amd and cyrix used the pr/+ system to mark their products, hence people will buy cheap crap gpus with 512mb of vram because they think that high number has an effect or donates real ability. You can debate the merits and falsehoods of this entire way people are irrationally influenced by advertising, but gentleman, it is real, it is happening right now, and it will continue to go on.

That is assuming, AMD pours in a sizable amount of PR into spinning. Unfortunately, AMD doesn't do that, and has no financial mean to pull off what Intel did to P4.



Again, Intel poured in large amount of money into PR. AMD doesn't.

"For the enthusiasts crowd, its pretty obvious how well Phenom is selling. You can look around this forum, and see how many people actually bought Phenom, and how many people bought Q6600."

Hold on a second old chap dont forget that the phenom is not nearly as widely available as the q6600, and has been around alot less time. But no I dont believe that the phenom will outsell the q6600.

"Who will really buy Phenom? Have you asked that question yourself?"

Yes I have, and yes I still believe it'll be oem purchasers and a segment of the enthusiast community. Despite all the shocking reviews some products get, for some unknown reason people will still go out and buy them, albeit in lower numbers than if it had good reviews, for example take, say, the 2900xt, which still proved to be quite numerous despite all said about it, then on to the dire 2600xt and 8600gt and gts cards, the former of which is pretty much awful, and the latter 2 generally overpriced and falling behind last gen 7900gt's and x1950pros performance wise, with their selling point: DX10, being firmly out of reach except on badly reduced settings. ...In times gone past you could look at the x1800xl which got one of the worst reviews ive ever read in a computer magazine here in the uk when it came out, and then maybe, the strutting baron of all turkeys, extreme edition p4s. I mean, come on, how much? for how much slower than a contemporary athlon? ok that last one is debateable lol but... well, you get the picture.

But then again the phenom isnt a terrible product - i'll say once again i have no plans to get one and im quite happy with my conroe from november last year thankyou very much so sit down everyone please - and as far as gaming goes, yes its a few frames off a q6600, but it wont hold you back in any substantial shape or form. For this I will provide a link

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2226947,00.asp

Looking at the charts, once you add in settings you'll actually play at (not 800x600 low) there really isnt much in it between a q6600 and a phenom. Looking at 3dmark06 it even nudges second place. Yes I know 'just being a few frames off' isnt the point and it should all be about how the phenom is better than the q6600, but it just illustrates that the phenom isnt a lame piece of kit. Bring down the price enough and it will start looking like a good buy, not a hot smelly brown dog poo.

It will, as they say, 'come out in the wash' in the course of time, but I dont see phenom being the last cpu an independent amd produces, or a commercial failure. ...shall we, you know, make it interesting gentlemen?

 

[spoonboy]

The difference is that I back my claims up (many times, but not all the time) with facts. You just make claims and NEVER back them up with facts.

If I post about AMD's finances, I reference stock prices, assets, debt, etc. You merely just say, "Well, I'm an optimist so I believe they are doing well despite having alarming losses that have sent their stock from $40 a share down to $9."

I wouldnt say I was being optimistic, just observing that the good ship amd with its 5 mile turning circle, doesnt seem to be taking on as much water as it was, it might even be bailing some of it out as we speak. AMD does seem rather hard done by as far as share prices go, but a large company in uncertain times in an uncertain stock market with lots of debt has to expect the rough with the smooth. Lets light the blue touch paper again when q4 results come out :lol:

...all this replying is cutting into my link finding time you know...

 

[spoonboy]

"But again, if someone who's not enthusiasts, why would a quad core interest them? For the group you just described, they could've still live in "gigahertz > anything". Those people could've buy a Dell, an Hp, or a Gateway. Do they have Phenom in their product lineup?"

Because these people will likely thing "i might as well get a quite good one, so it lasts me a bit" and maybe even "ohh that one sounds good, good price to". Alright alright I wont be writing any screen play dialogue anytime soon, but although the unintiated can be baffled, they wont want to go for the cheapest box in the shop, or at least, would rather not.

""gigahertz > anything"" this time is well and truly over as far as major advertising pushes goes. Put it this way, have you seen intel's online advertising for the 45nm quad cores? "the first quad core" with pictures of cheetahs in front of a quad core die shot? If intel thought that marketing a "true" quad core would not be effective for amd, then why tout their "first" quad core chip? Intel are trying to put their own (non-benchmark) spin on their designs, using a possible/actual amd advertsing pitch in reverse (first vs. true).

 

[Grimmy]

Looking at the charts, once you add in settings you'll actually play at (not 800x600 low) there really isnt much in it between a q6600 and a phenom. Looking at 3dmark06 it even nudges second place. Yes I know 'just being a few frames off' isnt the point and it should all be about how the phenom is better than the q6600, but it just illustrates that the phenom isnt a lame piece of kit. Bring down the price enough and it will start looking like a good buy, not a hot smelly brown dog poo.

It will, as they say, 'come out in the wash' in the course of time, but I dont see phenom being the last cpu an independent amd produces, or a commercial failure. ...shall we, you know, make it interesting gentlemen?

You mean, ignore that one? That's basically one of the important things to look at. Why? Cause at lower resolutions, the CPU is taking allot of the load. Higher resolutions, the GPU does more, hence why you don't see a difference.

And what ya know... this is what it says below that cap:

At low resolutions with low detail, we can see the impact of the CPU on a game more readily. There's little to show for Phenom in these tests. Even scaling up resolution and detail levels, Phenom generally can't keep up

 

[sonoran]

AMD very well may return to profitability in Q4, as Q4 is always the best season of the year for CPU sales. Even if they do, I'm not sure if they'll be able to continue on a course of profitability into Q1 and Q2 next year.

It seems to me that their biggest problem right now is the TLB buffer bug, which seems to be putting a major damper on their clock speeds. When (if?) they nix that bug, they should be able to ramp speeds to a point where it's a reasonably competitive product. The other issues they'll face at that point seem to be thermals (geting out of hand much like they did with Prescott) and the cost of producing a monolithic quad core on a 65nm process. But until they fix the TLB bug, they're in a world of hurt.

 

[exit2dos]

I don't think AMD's stock value will see much of an increase until Hector is replaced. Irregardless of whether or not someone could do any better - investors have lost confidence in him, and investor confidence is what makes or breaks a listed company.

 

[systemlord]

"But again, if someone who's not enthusiasts, why would a quad core interest them? For the group you just described, they could've still live in "gigahertz > anything". Those people could've buy a Dell, an Hp, or a Gateway. Do they have Phenom in their product lineup?"

Because these people will likely thing "i might as well get a quite good one, so it lasts me a bit" and maybe even "ohh that one sounds good, good price to". Alright alright I wont be writing any screen play dialogue anytime soon, but although the unintiated can be baffled, they wont want to go for the cheapest box in the shop, or at least, would rather not.

""gigahertz > anything"" this time is well and truly over as far as major advertising pushes goes. Put it this way, have you seen intel's online advertising for the 45nm quad cores? "the first quad core" with pictures of cheetahs in front of a quad core die shot? If intel thought that marketing a "true" quad core would not be effective for amd, then why tout their "first" quad core chip? Intel are trying to put their own (non-benchmark) spin on their designs, using a possible/actual amd advertsing pitch in reverse (first vs. true).

Spoonboy all you do is repeat yourself, make non-factual claims and guess how people behave when confronted with a purchase. You seem to know it all when it comes to how non-enthusiasts will behave, but all your doing is making a statement that you think is right when your way wrong. Either you like to be the center of attention or almost everyone in this post is factualy wrong. Do you see all these people picking away at all your posts? This is just my opinion on the lack of actual facts/links that you seem be missing. Theres a reason for it but I think you will just come back for more attention, you can have the floor now.

 

[yomamafor1]

No there is also a third way, to release your product in dribbles in a sort of pre-production 'beta' form, which AMD have been doing with phenom. And im pretty certain - sorry no links here trainspotters - that they are being bought up as soon as they come in. Hence the price. Im talking u.k prices here. If it gets released, it will sell, the only question is in what kind of quantities.

Again, no links. TBH I feel like you're just giving out words based on your opinions, not facts. We'll see how AMD does once their Q4 earning is out. I don't expect a large increase from the desktop segment.

"Let's see. 8800GT has completely sold out, while RV670s are having mail in rebates. I wonder which is more "attractive" to the market?" all sniping aside, ...links?

http://image.ak.outpost.com/art/rebates_pdf/5449449.11508.pdf <= rebates for Diamond 3870/3850.

if its a quality issues seeing rv670s going back to manufacturers/suppliers, I do believe there was a faulty early batch of 8800gts as well. But the gpu argument is a whole different story. The 'buzz' around both cards is very strong, despite personal persuasions by anyone here, the inescapable fact is that baring any silly problems like chronic medium term supply shortages, still very early to say that about either manufacturers products, both will Im am sure sell a great deal.

3870 will be a great deal, but probably only to those with Xfire boards. Dell was selling 8800GT @ 210USD a pop. But I agree, RV670 will probably be a break even for ATi, and cover up some losses from R600 debacle. To say it will be profitable is a little stretching it.

 

[yomamafor1]

"For the enthusiasts crowd, its pretty obvious how well Phenom is selling. You can look around this forum, and see how many people actually bought Phenom, and how many people bought Q6600."

Hold on a second old chap dont forget that the phenom is not nearly as widely available as the q6600, and has been around alot less time. But no I dont believe that the phenom will outsell the q6600.

Then how will AMD be profitable if they can only compete Q6600 on price points, when the cost of Phenom is significantly higher than Q6600? Having more revenue doesn't mean there will be more profits. AMD is about 5 billion in debt, and they've just posted their 5th consecutive loss in Q3.

"Who will really buy Phenom? Have you asked that question yourself?"

Yes I have, and yes I still believe it'll be oem purchasers and a segment of the enthusiast community.

When Intel's quad core outperforms it by a noticeable margin, while costing a lot less? Dell won't take orders from AMD if they know AMD can't satisfy the volume needed. Same with HP, and Gateway.

It will be a while before Phenom pops on the OEM market.

Despite all the shocking reviews some products get, for some unknown reason people will still go out and buy them, albeit in lower numbers than if it had good reviews, for example take, say, the 2900xt, which still proved to be quite numerous despite all said about it, then on to the dire 2600xt and 8600gt and gts cards, the former of which is pretty much awful, and the latter 2 generally overpriced and falling behind last gen 7900gt's and x1950pros performance wise, with their selling point: DX10, being firmly out of reach except on badly reduced settings. ...In times gone past you could look at the x1800xl which got one of the worst reviews ive ever read in a computer magazine here in the uk when it came out, and then maybe, the strutting baron of all turkeys, extreme edition p4s. I mean, come on, how much? for how much slower than a contemporary athlon? ok that last one is debateable lol but... well, you get the picture.

Fanbase?

But in all honesty, most enthusiasts communities have left AMD for Intel. OEMs only do AMD's dual core business, and quad core in servers (which, is still not available at this point). Phenom will sell. The question is, how much, and how much AMD can make from it?

But then again the phenom isnt a terrible product - i'll say once again i have no plans to get one and im quite happy with my conroe from november last year thankyou very much so sit down everyone please - and as far as gaming goes, yes its a few frames off a q6600, but it wont hold you back in any substantial shape or form. For this I will provide a link

http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2226947,00.asp

Looking at the charts, once you add in settings you'll actually play at (not 800x600 low) there really isnt much in it between a q6600 and a phenom. Looking at 3dmark06 it even nudges second place. Yes I know 'just being a few frames off' isnt the point and it should all be about how the phenom is better than the q6600, but it just illustrates that the phenom isnt a lame piece of kit. Bring down the price enough and it will start looking like a good buy, not a hot smelly brown dog poo.

It will, as they say, 'come out in the wash' in the course of time, but I dont see phenom being the last cpu an independent amd produces, or a commercial failure. ...shall we, you know, make it interesting gentlemen?

As someone already said before, if you game at 1280x1024 or above, then what's the difference between a dual core and a quad core? Phenom was outperformed by its own 6000+ in numerous benchmarks, and nearly all of the games.
http://www.tomshardware.com/2007/11/19/the_spider_weaves_its_web/page25.html