Analyst: It's Game Over for Linux

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]tical2399[/nom]Because servers are not the only segment of computing. and i'm sure its more regular home users than entities that would need to use servers[/citation]
You got that right, what is the ratio of servers to desktops anyway?
Linux is used so little on desktops because they have to interact directly with ordinary people like the girl from Accounts or your Uncle Jeff, all of who are not geeks, programmers or linux enthusiasts, they just want to use it and it make sense.

Apple tried to make seeming to be part of the 1% cool by comparing themselves to people like John Lennon or the Dalai Lahma, which worked a treat, but Linux trying to compare their 1% against the nerdy kid who lives in his mom's basement or the weird teacher at school who has leather patches on his tweed jacket doesn't have the same effect.

Back to numbers, a bit of Googling you can see there are about 45 million servers in the world, if Linux has 60% that's about 27 million copies of Linux, add that to the 1.6% Linux on desktop from the approx 1.5 billion PCs in the world (about 240 million).

So well done there are nearly 10 times as many people use Linux on desktop than on servers and even combined they are outnumbered 5 to 1 by users of the steaming turd known as Vista.

(all figures courtesy of Gartner, don't agree? do your own research)

 

[rooket]

sounds like some analyst is about to be fired

foremost, there are Linux classes at college level in universities. I doubt those are going away any time soon.

 

[killerclick]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]Back to numbers, a bit of Googling you can see there are about 45 million servers in the world[/citation]

Sorry, that's wrong. Google by itself has well over a million servers. And web servers are not the only kind of servers.

Linux pretty much runs the world, the only place it failed (in a spectacular way) is the desktop.

 

[Guest]

Wow!

A whole bunch of people who have no idea what they're talking about. There isn't anything I haven't been able to do with Debian GNU/Linux that I wanted to, including gaming, Flash support, you name it. In fact, I would never go back to Windows.

 

[shadyinc]

Give Linux some decent games, and see it catchup with the "GREAT 2" in a few months...
(How about starting with a Linux port of NFS:MW...EA, are u listening)
Give it more games, and see them being destroyed..!

Also, slower the pace at which version upgrades are rolled out..!
Keep updating the OS with patches etc....but not a version upgrade.
To an average use, it is a "HEADACHE"(so to speak)..ask my dad
Despite of using various flavors of Linux as my primary OSes,for about 5 years now, even i don't follow the 6 month upgrade cycle..!

 

[cadder]

Linux has done very well for such a humble beginning. (Of course as far as I'm concerned Linux was built on top of Unix.)

I used Unix for a long time and I don't like Linux because it has taken the complexity of Unix and built upon it. (Just try to add a hard drive to a Linux system, just try it. Or try to add a user to a Linux server.) But once you get past that it can work well for servers, and it can do a lot of desktop service on minimal hardware.

 

[soundthinking]

[citation][nom]dreamer77dd[/nom]It not easy like a Playskool toy or Ipad. It seems to be for the programmer or tech head and not for my grandmother that doe snot know how to copy paste. Until that happens it not going to be on many computers. People are just not that smart when it comes to technology, more then before but they just want it to work. Computer make my printer work with out me knowing anything.[/citation]

First, try to learn English before posting here. Second, dual-boot Ubuntu 11.10 and Winderp (Windows), and see how Ubuntu stacks up with Winderp in terms of performance and usability. You'd be quite shocked how easy it is to use Linux day to day instead of Windows. I should know since I have done so for two years, even while taking tech classes that required use of Windows software (I used WINE to run the Windows specific software). If people would look around, they would find that Mac OS X's new "Mission Control" view was stolen from the GNOME 3 interface that Linux uses, and Winderp's "Aero" and "Aero-snap" were BOTH stolen from the KDE interface that both Linux and BSD use. Instead, Apple is credited with an icon based representation of all applications on the system, and Micro$oft is credited with Window border transparency and the ability to "snap" windows to each half of the screen or the whole screen.

 

[Guest]

Linux, or more properly GNU/Linux, dominates the server market. It is also used in an increasingly large number of embedded devices.

Some analysts are astute, but many don't know what they are talking about.

 

[RipperjackAU]

[citation][nom]molo9000[/nom]Nothing else.Would have ditched my Windows machine long ago if I wasn't a gamer.[/citation]

... and THERE is why Linux failed to capture the desktop market. No decent game support!

 

[bliq]

I've found Fedora 15 Live to be superb. but there just isn't support for some of the things people like to do with non-server hardware- mostly entertainment related. The lack of native Netflix alone was a deal killer for me. I ended up hackintoshing my eeePC. If there was linux silverlight, I don't think I'd go through the hassle of hackintosh anymore. Windows on my eeePC was just too slow even with the SSD.

 

[lp231]

The problem with Linux is this
1st person: Makes his linux distro and shares it
2nd person to 1st person: Your linux sux, 2nd person makes his linux and shares it
3rd person: Both of yours sux, he then too makes his own linux
And this process repeat itself.
Basically a bunch of nerds who thinks they better then one another in the field of tangled noodle theory, now we have a bunch of distro spread all over the digital space. Much like someone sprinkling bird seeds and a bunch of birds some and starts pecking at it.

 

[Guest]

@ ALL you Windows fanboys, Linux never wanted world domination. We Linux users don't care whether you use it or not. In fact, all I care about is that it runs with my antiquated hardware (Phenom II Quad, 8Gig, 1.25 Tb H/D. Radeon 6570, Creative X-Fi etc. - y'know, all the new stuff that Linux doesn't support), and it runs it very well. I play the odd game (Trackmania United is my favourite) - Oh - I can't do that, it's Windows only! (think again, MS lovers).

And fully booted, my system consumes a massive amount of RAM (6% at the last count) and uses gigabytes of HD space for all those source codes and compilers etc. that I have to install (7.6 Gb, including applications).

The original article is just flamebait written by someone without a clue, as are many of the responses here.

So to all you "Linux is no good" crowd - fine. You carry on with your Windows OSes, and you MAC boys can continue with your (UNIX based) OS, too. Linux doesn't need you. In fact, the only people that Linux DOES need are the developers that just keep on pumping OS software out so that those of us in the know can use it without worry, and without virus checkers, spyware and adware blockers etc. grinding our systems to a halt.

 

[Vladislaus]

[citation][nom]pcwlai[/nom]User experience is very bad in Linux for desktops.My recent experience with Ubuntu 11.04:1. Auto update removed my UEFI packages and makes the system not bootable after automatic updates.2. nVidia official drivers requires console mode.3. No virtual console for nVidia except third party drivers which does not work in conjunction with nVidia official drivers for X window.4. Creative SoundBlaster X-Fi Titanium HD not working.5. Realtek official audio drivers not working properly even compiled successfully.6. GNU compilers suite latest version can be installed but not suitable for compiling applications (at least without messy system setup) for Ubuntu desktop.7. Shutdown is fine but reboot will give you crashes or black screen of death.8. Proper shutdown but still crashes the file system and requires fixes.9. UEFI boot record in UEFI ROM get erased after firmware update (no such problems in Windows).10. Booting to safe mode or memory test crashes immediately.Conclusion is:1. Not suitable with latest hardware even it is open source2. Not stable when you need a GUI for desktop.No matter how good Linux is or how fast is can be updated from the source code level, if it does not work in the latest hardware or even some popular configurations, hardcore users will leave it without a choice. Not to mention normal users.The quote, "It just works", is really the only way to go if you want the market. 99% are normal, even not all geeks want works done and not messes all the time.[/citation]
My computer is running with a sandy bridge cpu and a series gtx500 gpu. I never had any problem with UEFI nor any problem with the GPU driver.

I also have a Creative X-Fi, even though it's not as new as yours, it's the PCI version, and I have sound. I admit that in the beginning it was a nightmare to make the X-Fi work in linux because the driver that creative launched was buggy and took it's sweet time to fix it. Now in ubuntu the X-Fi works our of the box.

I know that your X-Fi doesn't work with linux, but it's creative's fault, not linux. Same thing goes to realtek. Drivers is the responsibility of the hardware manufacturer, not the OS developer.

 

[soundthinking]

[citation][nom]bliq[/nom]I've found Fedora 15 Live to be superb. but there just isn't support for some of the things people like to do with non-server hardware- mostly entertainment related. The lack of native Netflix alone was a deal killer for me. I ended up hackintoshing my eeePC. If there was linux silverlight, I don't think I'd go through the hassle of hackintosh anymore. Windows on my eeePC was just too slow even with the SSD.[/citation]

There is a native *compatible* Silverlight-clone: Novell Moonlight. True, it doesn't work all the time, however, it is supported enough that Micro$oft redirects Linux users there themselves.

 

[lordstormdragon]

[citation][nom]molo9000[/nom]What keeps Windows dominant is compatibility with old software. Nothing else.Would have ditched my Windows machine long ago if I wasn't a gamer.[/citation]

Wrong. What keeps Windows dominant is its flexibility, only one part of which is the compatibility with older applications. There are many, many sectors where Mac OS and Linux simply aren't appropriate and have no place. DCC for example - bring a Mac to an Industrial L&M interview and see how long that lasts.

But yes, Gaming is all Windows, and rightly so. They're the only computer platform that has enabled such wonders for us to behold and treasure! Game on, my friend.

 

[jecastej]

As a user, wouldn't I want a free OS where I could do all I want and need with little effort? To me it's a resounding Yes. Well, Linux may never be that free OS. From this point of view Linux as an open source project for general use is a disappointment even if it never intended to become a dominant force. However it doesn't mean its dead, has no life ahead or porpoise for some great use among some specialists.

 

[three0duster]

A few years ago I would be surprised Tom's would post something like this. But in the past few months this is about the norm. The guy that wrote this article is an idiot. Yes Linux still has some work in the desktop market, but it has come a long way in just a few years. I'd like to see someone from today get thrown back on an old windows 3.1 machine or early Mac. Linux for the desktop is still young.

 

[soundthinking]

[citation][nom]lp231[/nom]The problem with Linux is this1st person: Makes his linux distro and shares it2nd person to 1st person: Your linux sux, 2nd person makes his linux and shares it3rd person: Both of yours sux, he then too makes his own linuxAnd this process repeat itself.Basically a bunch of nerds who thinks they better then one another in the field of tangled noodle theory, now we have a bunch of distro spread all over the digital space. Much like someone sprinkling bird seeds and a bunch of birds some and starts pecking at it.[/citation]

Not really...Different distros do different things. Fedora is a test platform for the very latest software advances in Linux, Ubuntu is for the newbs, openSUSE/SLED are for businesses, BackTrack is for penetration testing (network security tests), Debian is mainly for servers and long-term desktop systems, Sabayon is for media-center style computers, and distros like Zentyal are for gateways and small-scale servers. It's not just nerds trying to out-do each other, rather it is just a differing of opinions on what to make of Linux's adaptability.

 

[lordstormdragon]

Considering that almost the entire internet is served from Linux servers, I find this article to be completely pointless. There's no reason this "analyst" deserves to be reposted here on Tom's; not only is it not hardware-related, the guy obviously has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[kinggremlin]

The amount of repetitive stupidity in this thread is remarkable. The analyst clearly makes a distinction between desktop, mobile and server markets, but most of you seem to have no understanding what that means. Most of you probably aren't old enough either to remember every new year being declared the year of the Linux desktop. It never happened, and as the analyst is pointing out, it clearly isn't going to happen going forward. There was a time when the Linux community actually thought that Linux would develop into a legitimate rival to Microsoft on the desktop. Nobody in their right mind would think that now. Linux' time in the sun is over, and any hope of gaining any relevant market share is dead with it. It's also basically dead in the mobile market as well now. None of that is going to have any affect on the server market which Linux does very well in, but that wasn't the point report.

 

[lordstormdragon]

"None of that is going to have any affect on the server market which Linux does very well in, but that wasn't the point report."

Read it again, KingGremlin.

"A Forrester analyst yesterday told the Linux world that it is game over for the OS. No more hope for world domination. At least on desktops and mobile devices."

So it's just another example of media BS, really. He throws in the caveat, "At least..."

But the headline and the main point of the article surmises that Linux is "dead". Do you know what this word means, KingGremlin? It means gone, not revivable, not coming back. It doesn't mean in actuality what it means to your paltry, WoW-playing mindset. Dead refers to the state of death, which is final.

So while I see YOUR point, the article only barely acknowledges that point. It's a troll-article, basically, and we both just fed it.

 

[mayne92]

[citation][nom]cadder[/nom]Linux has done very well for such a humble beginning. (Of course as far as I'm concerned Linux was built on top of Unix.)I used Unix for a long time and I don't like Linux because it has taken the complexity of Unix and built upon it. (Just try to add a hard drive to a Linux system, just try it. Or try to add a user to a Linux server.) But once you get past that it can work well for servers, and it can do a lot of desktop service on minimal hardware.[/citation]

So what exactly is so hard about adding a hard drive or adding a user in Linux? There are GUI config panels in Linux that easily let you do this just the same as there are in Windows...or are you too used to doing it with Windows???

 

[hetneo]

[citation][nom]pcwlai[/nom]User experience is very bad in Linux for desktops.My recent experience with Ubuntu 11.04:1. Auto update removed my UEFI packages and makes the system not bootable after automatic updates.2. nVidia official drivers requires console mode.3. No virtual console for nVidia except third party drivers which does not work in conjunction with nVidia official drivers for X window.4. Creative SoundBlaster X-Fi Titanium HD not working.5. Realtek official audio drivers not working properly even compiled successfully.6. GNU compilers suite latest version can be installed but not suitable for compiling applications (at least without messy system setup) for Ubuntu desktop.7. Shutdown is fine but reboot will give you crashes or black screen of death.8. Proper shutdown but still crashes the file system and requires fixes.9. UEFI boot record in UEFI ROM get erased after firmware update (no such problems in Windows).10. Booting to safe mode or memory test crashes immediately.Conclusion is:1. Not suitable with latest hardware even it is open source2. Not stable when you need a GUI for desktop.No matter how good Linux is or how fast is can be updated from the source code level, if it does not work in the latest hardware or even some popular configurations, hardcore users will leave it without a choice. Not to mention normal users.The quote, "It just works", is really the only way to go if you want the market. 99% are normal, even not all geeks want works done and not messes all the time.[/citation]
Try some other distro, like Fedora or Mandriva, basically any distro other than Ubintu. You will have much different experience with it.

 

[fulner]

People are dumb, my phone is just as much Linux as my desktop is. Sure my phone is Nothing GNU (Something I was greatly disappointed with when I bought my A885). But in reality its a victory for us in the FSF and its a greater reminder that we should refer to the system on your Debian web server GNU/Linux, and your Galaxy S as Android/Linux.

Linux is dead! Long live Linux!

Also note GNU/Linux has a higher percentage of the desktop market now than it has ever had. Worldwide GNU has a larger market share than OSX desktop (though not so in North America, developing countries, no pun intended, love GNU).

==What better way to increase hits to your site than to say Linux is dead and tick off a bunch of GNU/Linux super nerds.

 

[dissbelief]

I'm curious to know how they figured Linux only has 2% of the desktop market. Linux is very popular across the globe and it very often exists in a dual boot configuration. If they calculated it based on downloads of each distro, then that figure would be enormously inaccurate. How many people install Linux for friends and family from the same disk they used? I know I've installed Linux for about 15 people from one Linux Mint disk and one Slackware disk. Not to mention all the downloads from people trying out new versions of different distros. How can you be a Linux user never get curious to try another distro when it's so easy; Gparted,re-size partition, install....about 30 minutes later, you're in LinuxLand; or VirtualBox, install Linux and guest additions....done. If you are using Gentoo, Arch, Slackware, etc., you may have problems afterwords because of the flexibility they give you, but if you are using an Ubuntu or Fedora-based distro, most of the time you are good to go, minus dealing with a few free software issues which can be fixed by a simple google. And for most cases, hardware support is not that far behind windows. My AMD E-350 APU Laptop worked just fine in Slackware even though my kernel and userland were released long before the APU. Even if it didn't work, they had it ready in the kernel a few weeks later. Basically what I am trying to say is that the Forrester analyst is spewing a bunch of garbage he knows little about. You can go Glen Beck-style and use faulty logic that is actually true if the arguments are sound, which they're not. But when it's all said and done, all OSes have their ups and downs and it comes down to what BS you want to deal with. For example, Windows: Highly compatible with hardware, third-party software, gaming, expensive, virus-prone, lack of control, etc,; Linux: Free, great community for support, many choices for software and OS, stability and speed, highly customizable, choices can be overwhelming, hardware support is behind Windows (not always...), takes time to learn, things sometime break during updates(infrequently, and on a small scale), requires a little brainpower and effort sometimes. For the record, there is not one task in Windows that I cannot perform in Linux, even gaming(checkout www.winehq.com). Once Linux becomes just a little simpler to use, you will see worldwide dominance; why do you think Microsoft wished Linux happy birthday, they weren't being nice... In the meantime, it is the best solution for any computer enthusiast or low-income individual. Lack of innovation, really? Someone tell him to create a working kernel and vast userland with only donations and dedication to fuel it. And don't forget how most hardware manufacturers will not work with devs or release their source code. Imagine if Linux had the code for DirectX and all hardware drivers; Linux would then flip positions with Microsoft. But that still doesn't stop Linux from being a fantastic OS. When Diablo II and Starcraft wouldn't work properly in Win7, I turned to WINE in Linux, and they now run flawlessly. Can't afford Microsoft Office? Libre Office or OpenOffice have you covered at no cost. Mozilla, Chrome, media playback, instant messaging, skype, are all native to Linux, but most Windows apps can be used in Wine or in a virtualbox anyway. My final point is this: there is nothing majorly wrong with Linux, it's the general public that's the issue and Linux is working its way to them. First we take over your desktop one by one and then the world without even trying to!