Henri Richard explains why AMD failed to gain more marketshare

[Chad Boga]

There are limited choices to what can actually happen here and the most likely is AMD go down the tubes, leaving us with intel and Nvidia free to price however they like.

Given the track record of them both, yes it would be infinitely preferable for Nvidia to retreat out of the discrete graphics market altogether and concentrate on HPC.

Do you think Nvidia would stay in discrete gpu making a loss? Of course they wont. Everybody thinks it's great getting cheap prices in a price war like we've had between ATI and Nvidia for the past few years, but look at the state of both companies.

Price wars are great when two companies are healthy, that way they might even continue. As it stands, neither AMD or Nvidia are healthy. If one of them has to go, it HAS to be Nvidia for the good of all of us.

Some of you are so blinded by intel fanboyism and AMD hatred that you can't even accept that. AMD going bust would be an absolute disaster for consumers everywhere.

Your fanboyism is causing you to promote False Dilemma arguments.

It is not simply a case of wishing Nvidia must go bankrupt for AMD to survive, nor is it the only or most likely outcome to having consumers getting the best deals.

If the FTC is pushing Intel now with AMD still around to give an x86 licence to Nvidia, it is impossible to imagine that wouldn't happen if AMD went belly up.

Similarly if AMD goes belly up, ATI's technology can be sold to another company, and more competition in the graphics market could be provided by Intel if they are able to make Larrabee work.

Having said all this, whilst I don't wish bankruptcy on any of the big semi-conductor players, I think Nvidia is in the most danger of going belly up, if AMD can execute reasonably well for the next few years.

 

[jennyh]

I didn't say Nvidia had to go bankrupt.

Nvidia are losing a lot of money on Geforce, it is basically only pride keeping them in there. The price war on discrete graphics is too much for either company to bear much longer. What if both just decide there isn't any point? Why would two companies continue to lose money on something?

Most of you are living in a fantasy if you think Larrabee is going to add another player to the graphics arena, and if you think Nvidia will get an x86 licence. Even if they did, Nvidia can't even make a graphics card recently so what makes you think they can make a cpu?

No the sad fact is, we'll be stuck with intel making $bn profits while both AMD and Nvidia struggle to make anything. It can't last the way it has been going.

 

[Chad Boga]

I didn't say Nvidia had to go bankrupt.

Nvidia are losing a lot of money on Geforce, it is basically only pride keeping them in there. The price war on discrete graphics is too much for either company to bear much longer. What if both just decide there isn't any point? Why would two companies continue to lose money on something?

Whilst I think Nvidia's future is shaky, I don't think it makes any sense to make an assessment of Nvidia's financial health right now as the last 12 months has seen the worst global downturn in 70+ years and Nvidia's latest and greatest is late to the table.

If Nvidia is still losing money at a similar rate in 12 to 18 months time, then alarm bells would be ringing.

Most of you are living in a fantasy if you think Larrabee is going to add another player to the graphics arena

Why is that a fanciful notion?

It is of course no guarantee to happen, but as I have always been of the belief that Larrabee will only be viable on 22nm, we have a way to go yet before it can be declared a failure.

if you think Nvidia will get an x86 licence. Even if they did, Nvidia can't even make a graphics card recently so what makes you think they can make a cpu?

Why is Nvidia's recent problems meant to represent how they will always be?

And I can only see Nvidia getting an x86 licence if AMD goes belly up, so there would obviously be a lot of ex-AMD folk being picked up by Nvidia.

No the sad fact is, we'll be stuck with intel making $bn profits while both AMD and Nvidia struggle to make anything. It can't last the way it has been going.

You have been saying the Intel is doomed, that the world will wake up and embrace AMD's more "co-operative way of working", what has caused you to lose faith?

 

[exit2dos]

I think a better scenario would be for ARM to go x86 and take a nice chunk of marketshare

There was talk last year about the possibility of Win 7 being ported to ARM. If this ever happened, it would let ARM seriously compete in the netbook stage, and work its way up into laptops and desktops.

Also consider if MS does try to make the Zune HD into a smartphone platform. They'd start with a Windows Mobile edition for Tegra, and would probably move into a Win 7 version if they wanted to market a touchpad.

x86 is only relevant (on a consumer level) because it runs Windows. If MS ports Windows to other platforms, then the uarch is no longer a factor for the consumer.

 

[jennyh]

You have been saying the Intel is doomed, that the world will wake up and embrace AMD's more "co-operative way of working", what has caused you to lose faith?

You are so far off the mark it's a neverending source of amusement for me.

You, Jimmy, Badtrip, Someguy et-al, you just really don't get it at all do you. I couldn't give a flying monkey about AMD, all that matters is the competition, the fairness, the consumer against the corporation, the greed, and the idiocy.

If some other company was likely to challenge intel more, I'd abandon AMD for them in an instant. It speaks volumes that you cannot grasp that, you all just assumed I was an AMD fangirl.

The only reason I back AMD is because AMD are the only realistic option. While the rest of you fantasise about ARM and Nvidia and a free-for-all on x86, I'm looking at the realistic current options. AMD, and only AMD can hurt intel enough to matter. Even if ARM kick intel out of the smartphone market, how long do you think it will be before they'll come back...and do you think they'll play fair or use the same old tactics?

It's all about the money and how that money is used. The $billions intel is making is being used to protect it's monopoly, no matter the consequences - and that is a bad thing for normal people.

 

[Chad Boga]

You are so far off the mark it's a neverending source of amusement for me.

You, Jimmy, Badtrip, Someguy et-al, you just really don't get it at all do you. I couldn't give a flying monkey about AMD, all that matters is the competition, the fairness, the consumer against the corporation, the greed, and the idiocy.

If some other company was likely to challenge intel more, I'd abandon AMD for them in an instant. It speaks volumes that you cannot grasp that, you all just assumed I was an AMD fangirl.

The only reason I back AMD is because AMD are the only realistic option. While the rest of you fantasise about ARM and Nvidia and a free-for-all on x86, I'm looking at the realistic current options. AMD, and only AMD can hurt intel enough to matter. Even if ARM kick intel out of the smartphone market, how long do you think it will be before they'll come back...and do you think they'll play fair or use the same old tactics?

It's all about the money and how that money is used. The $billions intel is making is being used to protect it's monopoly, no matter the consequences - and that is a bad thing for normal people.

:lol: :lol: :lol: You didn't answer the question at all.

Were you just speaking SHlT when you were predicting that Intel were going to be in a world of hurt soon?

 

[jennyh]

Lose faith?

Chad I basically told everybody what was going to happen last year, from month 1 to month 12.

I could do it again and I wouldn't be far off again.

---

Intel can only be stopped by a bigger corp like IBM, or the worlds governments. How messed up are you that you actually believe AMD, Nvidia, ARM or anyone else can hope to beat intel? Dear oh dear.

 

[someguy7]

There are limited choices to what can actually happen here and the most likely is AMD go down the tubes, leaving us with intel and Nvidia free to price however they like.

Given the track record of them both, yes it would be infinitely preferable for Nvidia to retreat out of the discrete graphics market altogether and concentrate on HPC.

Do you think Nvidia would stay in discrete gpu making a loss? Of course they wont. Everybody thinks it's great getting cheap prices in a price war like we've had between ATI and Nvidia for the past few years, but look at the state of both companies.

Price wars are great when two companies are healthy, that way they might even continue. As it stands, neither AMD or Nvidia are healthy. If one of them has to go, it HAS to be Nvidia for the good of all of us.

Some of you are so blinded by intel fanboyism and AMD hatred that you can't even accept that. AMD going bust would be an absolute disaster for consumers everywhere.

I am not gamer and I do not follow GPU's very closely. But didnt Nvidia have the performance lead up until the new 5 series from ATI?

And you dont want ATI to go under because Nvidia will be able to price how ever they like? But you want Nvidia to stop making gaming cards so your beloved ATI is free to price however they like? That makes perfect sense. Oh I forgot they wont do that. They are nice people. They care about the consumers and want to cure cancer and all that stuff right? All the stockholders in the company or just going to perfectly happy with ATI not making as much money as possible. They are just nice people.

 

[Chad Boga]

Lose faith?

Chad I basically told everybody what was going to happen last year, from month 1 to month 12.

I could do it again and I wouldn't be far off again.

---

Intel can only be stopped by a bigger corp like IBM, or the worlds governments. How messed up are you that you actually believe AMD, Nvidia, ARM or anyone else can hope to beat intel? Dear oh dear.

So your posts in recent months about how Intel were doomed were all facetious?

What about your claims of AMD gaining market share in servers this year?

 

[jennyh]

AMD will gain market share over intel this year in server. And yes, you will suffer my avatar for 6 months.

I really don't recall ever saying intel were doomed, feel free to point that one out. Things will be tough for them yes, but with $2bn a quarter profit (more than their entire competition put together), it's nothing they don't have the resources to see out.

 

[verndewd]

There was talk last year about the possibility of Win 7 being ported to ARM. If this ever happened, it would let ARM seriously compete in the netbook stage, and work its way up into laptops and desktops.

Also consider if MS does try to make the Zune HD into a smartphone platform. They'd start with a Windows Mobile edition for Tegra, and would probably move into a Win 7 version if they wanted to market a touchpad.

x86 is only relevant (on a consumer level) because it runs Windows. If MS ports Windows to other platforms, then the uarch is no longer a factor for the consumer.

so simple, but it makes me wonder why ms hasnt done this before . Is this an intel azz kissing deal or is it just easier to write code for endless extensions?

 

[exit2dos]

so simple, but it makes me wonder why ms hasnt done this before . Is this an intel azz kissing deal or is it just easier to write code for endless extensions?

Portability across different platforms was one of the original design points wth Windows. However, by the time Windows was released, most non-x86 platforms were gone due to the lower prices PC-compatibles brought to the x86 market. There was talk of Olivetti/AT&T licensing the Atari ST for their own computer with a port of Windows running on the Motorola 68K series, but that never went through. The only competition to x86 left was the Mac - which, of course, wasn't interested in Windows - and the Atari ST and Amiga, both of which could've used Windows support for more professional app support. But both platforms were spiraling and they had unreasonably high piracy rates for their actual installed base - which made it unfeasible to develop for.

MS will probably have to convert Windows to ARM at least - If Linux netbooks and tablet computers start making inroads. Add to that, that as features start growing on smartphones, Windows Mobile will not be enough. Smartphone sales are projected to surpass computers sales next year (not even counting the sales of tablet PCs that the iPad will bring into fashion), and I'm sure MS wants a piece of everything it can get.

http://www.digitalfamily.com/mobilewebdesign/?p=141

 

[verndewd]

interesting

 

[Chad Boga]

JMP analyst Alex Gauna set a price target of $10 and raised the stock's rating, "following checks and indications that AMD's PC and server opportunities in 2010/11 are stronger than we had previously been modeling."

Goldman puts AMD on 'Sell' list, predicting more losses this year

Goldman puts AMD on 'Sell' list, predicting more losses this year

By Associated Press

11:09 AM EST, February 2, 2010

NEW YORK (AP) — Goldman Sachs added Advanced Micro Devices to its "Conviction Sell List" on Tuesday, predicting more sizable losses for the chip maker this year.

AMD made its first profit in three years in the fourth quarter of 2009 because of a $1.25 billion legal settlement from rival Intel Corp., the world's biggest provider of chips for personal computers. But the company would have lost about $57 million, otherwise.

"We expect the company to continue to generate sizable losses in 2010," Goldman analyst James Covello told investors in a note.

He said the company will suffer from its exposure to the low-end desktop business and may lose ground to competition in the server market.

Covello noted that AMD shares have more than tripled over the past year, an indication investors have already taken account of the broader recovery in computer sales.

He reiterated a price target of $5.50, which would be a roughly 30 percent drop from the current share price.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell 13 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $7.85.

 

[BadTrip]

Goldman puts AMD on 'Sell' list, predicting more losses this year

Goldman puts AMD on 'Sell' list, predicting more losses this year

By Associated Press

11:09 AM EST, February 2, 2010

NEW YORK (AP) — Goldman Sachs added Advanced Micro Devices to its "Conviction Sell List" on Tuesday, predicting more sizable losses for the chip maker this year.

AMD made its first profit in three years in the fourth quarter of 2009 because of a $1.25 billion legal settlement from rival Intel Corp., the world's biggest provider of chips for personal computers. But the company would have lost about $57 million, otherwise.

"We expect the company to continue to generate sizable losses in 2010," Goldman analyst James Covello told investors in a note.

He said the company will suffer from its exposure to the low-end desktop business and may lose ground to competition in the server market.

Covello noted that AMD shares have more than tripled over the past year, an indication investors have already taken account of the broader recovery in computer sales.

He reiterated a price target of $5.50, which would be a roughly 30 percent drop from the current share price.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell 13 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $7.85.

I could not agree more.

 

[jimmysmitty]

You are so far off the mark it's a neverending source of amusement for me.

You, Jimmy, Badtrip, Someguy et-al, you just really don't get it at all do you. I couldn't give a flying monkey about AMD, all that matters is the competition, the fairness, the consumer against the corporation, the greed, and the idiocy.

If some other company was likely to challenge intel more, I'd abandon AMD for them in an instant. It speaks volumes that you cannot grasp that, you all just assumed I was an AMD fangirl.

The only reason I back AMD is because AMD are the only realistic option. While the rest of you fantasise about ARM and Nvidia and a free-for-all on x86, I'm looking at the realistic current options. AMD, and only AMD can hurt intel enough to matter. Even if ARM kick intel out of the smartphone market, how long do you think it will be before they'll come back...and do you think they'll play fair or use the same old tactics?

It's all about the money and how that money is used. The $billions intel is making is being used to protect it's monopoly, no matter the consequences - and that is a bad thing for normal people.

Oh I get it. You would rather have a company you like have a monopoly. You said it yourself.

You defend AMD then you do a 180 and say you don't care.

My thoughts? Monopoly is bad either way. Intel will always be the biggest unless something better comes along to throw x86 out. Its why Coke is the largest soft drink company or McDonalds is the largest fast food company.

BTW, the realistic option is the best bang for the buck in whatever budget you have. If Intel fits, it fits. If AMD fits, it fits. If ARM fits, well who cares about ARM.

 

[BadTrip]

If ARM fits, well who cares about ARM.

No one.

 

[Chad Boga]

No one.

Not true.

For as long as AMD doesn't have a true Atom competitor, AMD fanboys love ARM.

 

[BadTrip]

Not true.

For as long as AMD doesn't have a true Atom competitor, AMD fanboys love ARM.

Arm has no competition from Atom at the moment. Granted that Moorestown looks great, and I am excited. I am thinking that it is going to take another shrink to stop ARM.

 

[Chad Boga]

Arm has no competition from Atom at the moment. Granted that Moorestown looks great, and I am excited. I am thinking that it is going to take another shrink to stop ARM.

Sure, but haven't you noticed the AMDroids getting worked up and saying Atom/Intel will never be able to challenge ARM?

 

[BadTrip]

Sure, but haven't you noticed the AMDroids getting worked up and saying Atom/Intel will never be able to challenge ARM?

To say that is foolish, Intel could easily knock ARM out of the game if that was Intel's focus.

 

[Chad Boga]

To say that is foolish, Intel could easily knock ARM out of the game if that was Intel's focus.

Remember the kind of the people we are talking about here.

That is their stock in trade.

 

[verndewd]

LOL - so you're saying AMD comes up really short in the e-peen dept?? 😗

yeah i mean in sheer productivity intel has hooker speed and amd has slut speed.

 

[verndewd]

People argue about tech like it means something, the world is on fire people are bleeding in the streets, the usa ,audis and israel are setting up iran for a monolithic mind fawk and just because the guts of a mother and child in israel dont splatter in your fcae it doesnt mean as much as this pathetic droning over some bullcrap to do with something entirely reliant on resources that are drying up.

People think being passionate is roleplaying everything in the media down to the T, places like this are more cosplay than real life, most everyone doesnt knoe ALL the ins and outs of this that comment but god forbid you may have a differeng view because someone somewhere is pretty sure they are correct and they know less than the janitor at either company in question.

Forget reasoning in harmony and allowing unsettling things to pass we need our microwars because the world is at war and we want our micro wars in duplicitous anonymity relatively , behind a wall of electrons and photons. Our wars don t cuase mothers and children to be cooked to death by US made white phosphorous and all of that is such a drag especially when they pulled the baby up from his dead mothers arms and its legs melted off.

I mean come on you never see that boring old harmonious community on televiion any more , where people COULD argue and listen to dissenting views, in fact we could say that its mankinds weakest point even though thousands of years of conditioning to war is just a role anyone might choose to partake in. The media suggests it the masses create it, seems to me if the masses can create virtual fight clubs on this pathetic excuse for a global community outreach they could use a little less energy and create something a bit more peace full about a topic that doesnt save kids from speeding cars, bombs bullets and psychos.

When a humans reality is dependant on disgutingly superficial ideas that person needs to question how much of their ability to be human and humane is left.

Its just a tool , a hammer or a prybar, virtually what is mostly done with it makes the entire world look like a place worthy of total destruction.

 

[verndewd]

Arm has no competition from Atom at the moment. Granted that Moorestown looks great, and I am excited. I am thinking that it is going to take another shrink to stop ARM.

I think their lowest wattage model will prove people wrong this year it wont be intel gfx though