Henri Richard explains why AMD failed to gain more marketshare

[jennyh]

you need to compare those numbers with other years like prior to core products release amd was in and out of the 30% to 40% market bracket. So the real perspective here is that they are coming back into the numbers they were at 4 years ago.

Well desktop is back at 30% almost. I dunno what were people expecting? AMD cannot simply magic up market share, they need to have the chips to sell in the first place.

Why are intel gaining so much gpu market share? It's because they are selling garbage at a tiny profit, or possibly even a loss because as it isn't even close to being their main business. Every point of gained market share for intel in graphics is a loss to the entire pc industry.

As for Nvidia, they gained discrete share over ATI because they sold more of the low end gpu's. Considering the issues ATI had with getting supply, it's amazing it wasn't a lot more.

 

[jennyh]

See any contradiction there, or is it just me?

What I see is an incredibly pedantic mod.

Check fazers post (the one I was responding to), was graphics mentioned? No.

 

[Mousemonkey]

What I see is an incredibly pedantic mod.

Oh good.

 

[Chad Boga]

because the server share will come back and more with Magny Cours.

I don't think so Jenny.

Nehalem-EX will take care of Mangy Cours and Intel have already stated their intention of using 32nm Westmere to target the server market.

 

[verndewd]

I don't think so Jenny.

Nehalem-EX will take care of Mangy Cours and Intel have already stated their intention of using 32nm Westmere to target the server market.

hich is all fine and good but the fastest HPC server around is powered by AMD. And AMD continues to be in the top 10 in server so the lack of purchasing is really odd.

 

[jimmysmitty]

I want to show an example of how stupid the average joe is and that to make a point about how easy it is to sell gadgets to sheep.

http://theruthlesstruth.com/wordpress/2010/01/26/americans-sign-petition-to-repeal-the-first-amendment/

Dear God.....

People are idiots. They don't read anything they sign but then they complain about it later. Gotta love the American populace. In fact gotta love most people in every country. Uninformed yet complain about everything.

I think I might pull a Calvin from Calvin and Hobbes. I wont vote so that I can complain about the direction the country is going and when the government fails I can say "I didn't vote for them."

Calvin was a smart 6 year old/.

Hmm, I seem to recall Jenny or some other AMD fans posting how AMD would take a ton of marketshare in DT, server and maybe mobile from Intel with a full quarter of sales for the low-priced quads in DT, Istanbul in server, and I forget what in mobile 😛.. I think it was in one of the i5 threads last fall but I'm far too lazy to go look it up.

Anybody wanna bet that Apple will start moving their laptops & desktops from x86 to their new proprietary CPU that's on the iPad?? Even if they don't, it looks like ARM and Atom have a new competitor to deal with...

I doubt Apple would move to their own CPU. First off it is too new. Second, OS X wont work with it which means they will have to create a new OS XI (whatever 11 will be) not only for their RISC based CPU but also for x86 because they wont allow for people to say anything bad about them.

Then again if they don't make a new OS X for x86 and leave those people hanging, they will do as they always do; make sure it never gets to medias eyes. Much like the screw up with their high res monitors that would go bad. Tons of Apple owners had the problem, yet every thread or report done was never seen by public eyes.

Actually I said AMD would eat into intels notebook market share : Check

Also server share : Check.

What I didn't forsee was a share loss on desktop cpu's and graphics, but then again what can AMD do when their only supplier of graphics chips can't even make them?

Edit - seems AMD lost server share and gained desktop share, I thought I read it was elsewhere. Tbh that is better, because the server share will come back and more with Magny Cours.

Edit 2 - that link of Verns is saying different things to another link I read btw. In that, intel gained 3% server share.

Edit 3 - dear oh dear, just realised it was over the whole year.

I wouldn't say eating. I would say more like feeding much like those fish that feed off of sharks do. Its not enough to celebrate but its some.

But over the year, AMD gained less than they did in Q4.

I don't think so Jenny.

Nehalem-EX will take care of Mangy Cours and Intel have already stated their intention of using 32nm Westmere to target the server market.

Maybe to a point. Unless Intel has plans for Nehalem-EX for a 4P+ setup. Right now I think Nehalem works for 2P but no 4P has been made.

Of course if EX has 4P it will change a lot in the server market, especially if EX uses 32nm.

 

[verndewd]

http://www.top500.org/

 

[jimmysmitty]

hich is all fine and good but the fastest HPC server around is powered by AMD. And AMD continues to be in the top 10 in server so the lack of purchasing is really odd.

Thats because most of those HPC servers are made of 4P+ servers which Nehalem currently doesn't have but I bet it woouldn't take as many real Nehalem CPUs to match that AMD HPC server.

 

[verndewd]

xeon comes in at 5th all 3 top htpc';s are opty's

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Except graphics where they lost .2%.

Id point out YoY revenues, and also, Intels actually growing the pie here, with Atom, and doing it in large numbers, so, the real numbers are skewed somewhat.
In other words, what appears to be losses are actually smaller gains, but in a better margins segment

 

[jennyh]

I don't think so Jenny.

Nehalem-EX will take care of Mangy Cours and Intel have already stated their intention of using 32nm Westmere to target the server market.

I think when MC is released intel are going to shudder like never before actually, due to price/performance they can't hope to match.

 

[roofus]

Id point out YoY revenues, and also, Intels actually growing the pie here, with Atom, and doing it in large numbers, so, the real numbers are skewed somewhat.
In other words, what appears to be losses are actually smaller gains, but in a better margins segment

I don't know if I consider the numbers skewed in regards to atom as much as they created a new tier that will hurt their own mid-range sales as well as everyone else. AMD/Nvidia have to appreciate the garbage Intel solution to some extent though. If their graphics solution was decent, discrete graphics would only be desirable for the high end and that is a very small market. I believe you already predicted this coming JDJ. I guess where we can all have a good laugh is showing Intel as some industry graphics sales leader. It is an unintended, unknowing choice at the time of purchase and many don't realize just how bad it is until they decide to buy a copy of Modern Warfare 2 or Batman to play on their shitty Dell.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Not forgetting the vast amount of Nvidia fans that were going to join with the plethora of people gushing over the HD5xxx series and Eyefinity enabling AMD/Ati's market share to leap ahead. 😗

http://www.pcper.com/index.php#NewsID-8312

Yeah, while Eyefinity was interesting I thought it peculiar that the "low cost" company would come out with it during a severe recession, as if lots of people could afford multiple monitors while shirking the health insurance bill 😛. To quote JDJ, I guess AMD "just doesn't get it"

 

[fazers_on_stun]

So basically, AMD gained share on everything Q4. That's not bad.

Also not nearly as much as some here were predicting - 15-20% IIRC 😀.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Id point out YoY revenues, and also, Intels actually growing the pie here, with Atom, and doing it in large numbers, so, the real numbers are skewed somewhat.
In other words, what appears to be losses are actually smaller gains, but in a better margins segment

Didn't Intel report gross margins of something like 65%, whereas AMD got theirs to 45%? How do you explain that one?

 

[Chad Boga]

I think when MC is released intel are going to shudder like never before actually, due to price/performance they can't hope to match.

:lol: :lol: :lol: Mangy Cours will help AMD in those areas of the server market that are price sensitive, but overall it will not be enough to stop AMD from going backwards in the server market this year.

hich is all fine and good but the fastest HPC server around is powered by AMD. And AMD continues to be in the top 10 in server so the lack of purchasing is really odd.

The short term future(at least) in servers won't be as kind as the medium term past has been for AMD.

Maybe to a point. Unless Intel has plans for Nehalem-EX for a 4P+ setup. Right now I think Nehalem works for 2P but no 4P has been made.

Of course if EX has 4P it will change a lot in the server market, especially if EX uses 32nm.

Nehalem EX starts life as a 45nm product and will do 8P without special glue needing to be used by the system vendor.

Paul DeMone of Real World Tech fame analysed the state of play using the known performance metrics that have been released to date.

=======================================================================


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44683895

Graphs showing top bin Beckton (Nehalem-EX) performance
on TpmC and SPEC rate_base relative to existing Nehalem
Xeon x5570 on slide 13 here:

http://www.bull.es/events/Carlos_Villacastin.pdf

Based on existing published data and the relative performance
shown in the graphs in the Intel document linked above here
is how things will look:

......................................................SPEC.................... SPEC
Processor System............ TpmC..... int_rate_base..... fp_base_rate

Beckton x7650 2s/16c......1140k......... 370...................... 285
Nehalem x5570 2s/8c........ 632k......... 246..................... 190
Opteron 8439SE 2s/12C..... --- ..........168 ..................... 132

Beckton x7560 4s/32c..... 2200k......... 690...................... 510
Dunn. x7460 4s/24c.......... 639k..........268..................... 142
Opteron 8439SE 4s/24c..... --- .......... 326..................... 258
Opteron 8384 4s/16c.........580k..........201..................... 187

Opteron 8439SE 8s/48c..... --- ...........629..................... 473



AMD will have Mangy Corpse next year but that is basically a
couple of down clocked 8439s in an MCM. A 4s top bin MC
box will likely be behind a 4s top bin Beckton box moderately
in SPEC CPU rate and by a large margin in TpmC. AMD will
have absolutely no answer at all to an 8s Beckton system.
=======================================================================

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Didn't Intel report gross margins of something like 65%, whereas AMD got theirs to 45%? How do you explain that one?

Somehow, I dont think you can compare margins of say, nVidias to those of Intels IGPs, or, in otherwprds, to quote me, context man, context

 

[jennyh]

:lol: :lol: :lol: Mangy Cours will help AMD in those areas of the server market that are price sensitive, but overall it will not be enough to stop AMD from going backwards in the server market this year.

Last I heard Nehalem-ex needs it's own power plant and is hotter than a room full of Fermi's. I guess we can add power sensitive markets to that too?

So now MC will be the price and power cpu of choice? What does that leave the Nehalem-EX? Ah it's the 1% who need pure power at any cost, right? Then the rest of the intel fanidiots can content themselves with the halo effect once again. :lol:

As for your links, the authors use of 'Mangy Corpse' sort of invalidates any credibility he might have had. 😗

Btw is it just me or was Nehalem-EX supposed to be released by now? I wonder what could be holding that back...

 

[Cryslayer80]

I want to show an example of how stupid the average joe is and that to make a point about how easy it is to sell gadgets to sheep.

http://theruthlesstruth.com/wordpress/2010/01/26/americans-sign-petition-to-repeal-the-first-amendment/

Lol, even though I'm no American, I totally got the point once I read what is stated in the amendment... Nice one.

PS: I bet all of these people who signed that have Intel CPUs as well 😀 JK

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Somehow, I dont think you can compare margins of say, nVidias to those of Intels IGPs, or, in otherwprds, to quote me, context man, context

But you were comparing Atoms to whatever, not IGPs. If as you say Atom is such a low margin product, then how did Intel get up to 65% margin, esp. if they sold a ton of Atoms?

 

[fazers_on_stun]

In other news, it now looks like El Jobso was way off the mark yesterday when announcing the iPad used the A4 Apple-designed proprietary CPU, at least according to the news links on the front page. Seems A4 is nothing more than a SOC using an ARM CPU and graphics.

Would have been interesting to see Apple get involved in the netbook CPU business but apparently that isn't happening.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Read the link, in it it says the market is shifting to Atom purchases and Intels IGPs. The link has nothing to do with cpus, as its Peddies research, so gpu oriented.
The addition of Atoms has little effect overall on PC/Mobile sales, but does grow the pie.
Even for cpus, the margins for Atoms arent what they are for a i5s, but in this case, its gpus, and overall growth vs before, and including IGPs arent the same, tho it makes Intel seem important, and is why people always resort to mentioning it, while the rest of us just snicker

 

[Cryslayer80]

As for your links, the authors use of 'Mangy Corpse' sort of invalidates any credibility he might have had. 😗

But you wouldn't mind if someone used Sandy Fridge, would you? 😉

 

[Chad Boga]

Last I heard Nehalem-ex needs it's own power plant and is hotter than a room full of Fermi's. I guess we can add power sensitive markets to that too?

Considering your consistent history of being wrong, then I can't say I have much faith in what you have "last heard".

So now MC will be the price and power cpu of choice?

It will have to be cheap, but it is doubtful it will offer better performance/watt considering the lower IPC it has.

What does that leave the Nehalem-EX? Ah it's the 1% who need pure power at any cost, right?

Nehalem will see AMD abandon the 4P market and ensure Intel dominance in the 2P market

As for your links, the authors use of 'Mangy Corpse' sort of invalidates any credibility he might have had.

The author's understandable disdain for AMDroids has no bearing on officially released figures.

Are you unable to comprehend these figures too, just like when you couldn't read AMD's financial statements Jenny and got confused over Revenue and Profit and needed your hand held to explain to you how without Intel's settlement money, AMD would have racked up another loss.

Btw is it just me or was Nehalem-EX supposed to be released by now? I wonder what could be holding that back...

Intel to release Westmere server chips in three months
.
.
15 January, 2010 13:55:00
http://www.cio.com.au/article/332671/intel_release_westmere_server_chips_three_months

The highly anticipated eight-core Nehalem-EX server chip will also be released in the first half, an Intel spokesman said on Thursday.

 

[Chad Boga]

But you wouldn't mind if someone used Sandy Fridge, would you? 😉

Is that because it will run so cool? :lol: