IBM: PCs are "Going The Way of Typewriters"

[jecastej]

I think there is certain confusion going on right now with the term post-desktop PC era and with the notion that we wont be working seated in front of a big monitor or two. Even a very capable tablet or ultra compact laptop in the future could be docked and connected to all kind of input devices and monitors. Docking stations in the next years could handle the multi monitor setup with powerful GPUs.

For the demanding nature of what I do I need a robust PC or two with multi monitor support, and I have no tablets planned yet next year. But I can see the point clearly, like it or not (and I don't like it) desktops and workstation will decrease in demand from the general needs to a point where the mighty desktop tower will receive less and less investment from hardware manufacturers.

The towers and components will still be developed because there is and there will be real use or demand but not just to the great scale they enjoyed. This will impact desktop PC production costs and the final selling price will increase. Where will this situation stabilizes depends on demand. Look to what has being happening with the professional graphic card market and with workstations. They are still developed but the cost is up to 5 times or more than desktop counterparts. The coincidence for the general use will split in emerging markets as is happening with tablets and next ultra-thin portable PCs. The investment today is starting to migrate to new segments because most people don't need, like or want a tower in their houses and offices.

 

[Guest]

The PC is nicer, faster, greener but it still pc. I am looking for tablet that can run Visual Studio 2010,SQLServer 2008 R2, Crysis 2 at highest resolution ...etc. But I do not know how long I have to. Viva PC!

 

[ikyung]

As of right now. There is a technology bottleneck. It is called power. Batteries, fuel, electricity, etc. is just not enough to make what scientists already have planned. It isn't that people can't make laptops or smartphones as fast as desktops because they lack the technology for it, but it is because they can't make a portable battery device that would keep it on for more then 10minutes.

Once that bottleneck is replaced, you will see such a breakthrough within 5 years that the jump would be insane.

 

[compton]

"vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs"

Are all highly prized now by discerning individuals.

In the future, the PC as we know it will probably be used by discerning individuals as well.

 

[memadmax]

The guy that said this is sitting in Africa/Middle east for a REASON..

 

[PreferLinux]

[citation][nom]jecastej[/nom]I think there is certain confusion going on right now with the term post-desktop PC era and with the notion that we wont be working seated in front of a big monitor or two. Even a very capable tablet or ultra compact laptop in the future could be docked and connected to all kind of input devices and monitors. Docking stations in the next years could handle the multi monitor setup with powerful GPUs.For the demanding nature of what I do I need a robust PC or two with multi monitor support, and I have no tablets planned yet next year. But I can see the point clearly, like it or not (and I don't like it) desktops and workstation will decrease in demand from the general needs to a point where the mighty desktop tower will receive less and less investment from hardware manufacturers.The towers and components will still be developed because there is and there will be real use or demand but not just to the great scale they enjoyed. This will impact desktop PC production costs and the final selling price will increase. Where will this situation stabilizes depends on demand. Look to what has being happening with the professional graphic card market and with workstations. They are still developed but the cost is up to 5 times or more than desktop counterparts. The coincidence for the general use will split in emerging markets as is happening with tablets and next ultra-thin portable PCs. The investment today is starting to migrate to new segments because most people don't need, like or want a tower in their houses and offices.[/citation]
Really? For low-end machines, yes. But for HPC, servers, workstations and enthusiast machines, never – they develop them all by developing any one of them.

 

[PreferLinux]

[citation][nom]compton[/nom]"vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs"Are all highly prized now by discerning individuals.In the future, the PC as we know it will probably be used by discerning individuals as well.[/citation]
Well, the vacuum tube is well used in radio because of the very high voltages involved. The records seem to be coming back. As to the rest, they definitely have their place.

 

[abhinav_mall]

Typewriter may be gone but its most essential part, keyboard, is still there in every device.

 

[11796pcs]

I think the PC market will remain at a very slow but constant growth ex. if worldwide 300 million PCs are shipped in 2011, in 2020 320 million might be shipped. Saying that over half will probably be shipped to third-world countries where there are no low-cost viable alternatives to the PC. But the PC will never in my lifetime be replaced. Was the typewriter actually replaced? Not really, it was just improved upon a ton. The fundamentals of a typewriter are sitting right in front of me. The only real difference is that my monitor acts as a piece of paper. The other problem people who believe we're in a post-PC era have is there is no technology in sight that produces content like the PC does. If we're in a post-PC era I need to see proof from professionals that they are abandoning their PCs in favor of tablets with the same functionality as their previous PCs and the proof simply isn't there. Just another sensationalist article, move on people.

Typed using Ubuntu.

 

[leandrodafontoura]

I wonder what tablet this guy has...how did he put 5tb of storage in it????

 

[Th-z]

That's as equally ignorant as saying supercomputer is dying to IBM's face.

"They're no longer at the leading edge of computing."

So what is, for the size of a personal computer? Tablet and smartphone will never touch the computing performance of personal computer. They are there for different purposes. It's like saying we have supercomputer now so we don't need personal computer anymore.

IBM wouldn't say those strange things if they have competitive CPU in personal computer market.

 

[sonofliberty08]

if only the tablets can handle the high end gaming , rendering the 3D model , transcode the movie and music , photoshop , bt and bla bla bla ......

 

[the associate]

What I don't get is why we have all sorts of clowns that think that because a tablet is good for them (since that's all they seem to NEED), then desktop pc's are useless and pc's are dying, as if the use of a product is defined worldwide by how they themselves use it?
That's one of the most arrogant claims someone can make, and they're to ignorant to even realize that.

 

[Guest]

The desktop PC will die, but I'm pretty sure the market won't start declining (in a meaningful way) for at least another 8 years. And even long after that there will be many who'll use them.

 

[amk-aka-Phantom]

STFU IBM! Not happy that no one gives a $h!t about your stuff today and instead turn to Intel or AMD? I can see that!

I wonder, when are these fools gonna stop trying to convince us that "PC is dead" and actually come up with something that can replace its awesomeness?..

...that's right, never.

 

[martel80]

No f*cking way I'm developing/debugging something in Eclipse on a laptop/tablet or whatever they think is going to succeed PCs. Anything under 1600x1200 is almost useless for real work.
And no, cramping such a resolution into 11 inches does not count.

 

[Wamphryi]

It seems to me that the Desktop PC will be King for a long time to come yet. It was said that XBOX and Playstation would kill off the PC Gamer some years ago and this has not happened. The PC can be anything as it is the ultimate mimic. When the PC was first invented no one knew what to do with it. Indeed one suggestion was that Housewives could keep the recipes on them. A PC is gaming machine, word processor, fax, entertainment center, video and audio editor etc. A tablet is a walled garden product that is designed to please a consumer. However when it comes to actually creating it simply doesn't add up. Soon Desktops and the ever advancing technologies that drive it will take us into 3D and Holograms and Laser based products. People will always want more power. Practically anything a wide range of devices can do my Desktops can do better. For portability I have a laptop. The PC will not die just yet.

 

[alidan]

[citation][nom]kinggraves[/nom]Saying that the PC will eventually be replaced with a superior device sometime in the future is stating the obvious. Stating that tablets or any other similar devices are a leap forward in the same way that the PC was a leap forward from a typewriter is folly. We won't need to concern ourselves with any brilliant ideas anytime soon when the industry is full of talking heads like this and not thinking heads.The real problem with the computing industry is that they've hit a lot of physical/technological walls and they're trying to sell us on the concept that less is better. They stopped pushing the Ghz limit of single cores, they're currently hitting the limit on how many cores are needed when people will only run so many processes at once. Hard drive limits have stopped growing like they used to. Graphics needs will also hit limitations eventually, you only need so many pixels on screen and there's only so many tricks they can pull to smooth it. Smaller is where the industry wants to go because it's the only direction they have left.[/citation]

well, in terms of ghz, they hit the limits of that is "safe" on silicon, and already branched out to graphene (sp), which can handle what was that, 50 or was it 500ghz on air cooling in labs.

in terms of cores, we arent even close yet to what people need, but we are in a weird place, because 4 cores is more than anyone needs currently, and 6 and 8 cores wont show much more we can do, but when we get into 12-16 cores, thats where we will see the improvement again. imagine it like a ladder and an 8 foot building and a 20 foot building, we have the 8 foot ladder so we can get on top of the smaller one, but to even touch the higher one, we need to build a bigger ladder and till its done, it will be seen as useless.

as for the gpu, once tessellation, or that one voxle tech is able to do what it needs to do, as in be applied to EVERYTHING and not just parts. the gpu will be pointless to improve apron. i mean we already hit the wall of diminishing returns with crysis 1 as far as no tessellation goes, and until full world tessellation is doable, we wont have anywhere to advance to, than after that, its all about pushing resolutions further, but really, is it ever going to be much more than 2560x1600? i mean there is a limit to what the human eye can decipher, as far as pixle density goes.

 

[Wamphryi]

Oh I forgot to mention Virtual Reality. Again the PC is the best candidate for the job. What the industry needs to do is create a new experience that a MciPad never will.

 

[Guest]

Try WORKING on a tablet. THEN tell us if the PC is really dying.

 

[killerclick]

I don't mind a post-PC era as long as I can connect whatever future computer to large, high definition displays and comfortable input devices. If that computer can fit into my cellphone, then great!

 

[apache_lives]

unless a little toy tablet/laptop can game/render/encode/store/process (DO) as much as my desktop can, and provide me with ~2-3 22-24 inch displays i say NO

not saying this is impossible as performance of our phones/tables in this day and age is incredible, and then again with cloud computing coming up but still i like my fast powerful desktop

im not some pussy "oh its too big" "why do i need that" crap - those kind of people frankly annoy me

 

[ojas]

Lol try distributed computing on tablets\smartphones. Folding@home's processing power will fall from 8 petaflops to 800 gigaflops (maybe even less, considering that most people wont always be connected to wifi). Plus people will hardly see any battery life on their little toys.

 

[razzb3d]

We want modular upgradable STANDARDIZED laptop platforms please!!!

 

[tomfreak]

It is because the god Damn lazy software company(or Microsoft) did not start designing OS that can think for us. We are still have the GUI click buttons and everything we do. There is no AI within OS, there is no full deployment of voice recognition, even our language translator are fugly. most of us still have to type using keyboard. What about getting Microsoft Kinect to the mass for daily window navigation? I'll like to browse web while both my hands are full of oil food.
hey we have 6-8 cores here, and a GPGPU. It is enough raw power to get these things started.

I am pretty sure the demand of desktop like pre-year 2000 again if our OS is starting to be our personal Assistant instead of a dummy screen with GUI. If u know that u got a intelligent OS/word processing software that can do help a lot in ur daily work, would u start buying 6-8 cores cpu?