iPhone Demand Slips as Galaxy S3 Interest is "Red Hot"

[d_kuhn]

lol... 'proprietary peripherals'... though proprietarals sounds like a good mashup for "bonehead move".

 

[zubai]

Ahaha.. I was just reading an article @ techspot.com with the title "The Apple Decade: Where They Succeeded and Others Were Too Lazy to Innovate". Man, that's some grade-A kool-aid they're drinking over there.

 

[WithoutWeakness]

[citation][nom]Cryio[/nom]I still don't know why everyone wants a GS3 when better phones are out there, with both Android and Windows Phone. The iPhone 5 is about the equivalent of SG3, so a switch to that one won't be taken in consideration to anyone.[/citation]
The GS3 is absurdly popular and has been on the market long enough that there are tons of ROMs available for it. It's an Android owner's dream to be able to get exactly the features you want from your phone. The GS3's hardware paired with great ROM developers makes for some amazing aftermarket options. Although Samsung and wireless carriers (Verizon, AT&T, etc.) may stop releasing updates for the phone, 3rd-party development will continue for years due to the popularity of the device.

 

[azraa]

[citation][nom]darkavenger123[/nom]Iphone users are satisfied because they've never experienced anything better!! You can't explain the feeling of driving a Ferrari to someone who drives a Japanese kei car all their lives...LOL.[/citation]
I think that you hit the point there, although, you didn't notice it.
The thing is that people think of the latest iProduct as a symbol of high standard, just lika a Ferrari is. People is stupid nowadays, they need the ego boost of a 'prominence' or 'opulence' or whatever. And there you have it, Ferrari, as your comparison goes, is a good product, but there are better, namely Bentley, Aston Martin, Lotus, etc. Same applies to high end phones. People leave aside what they dont know, assuming it's not good enough viewing that from the ego-boosted point of view.

There is no such thing as

 

[wemakeourfuture]

iPhone is still way ahead of Galaxy in terms of sales and demand.
The rate of increase of iPhone demand is increasing over time too

iPhone 5 is going to do 50 million in the first 4 months (estimates that are still on projections, quarterly results will confirm), S3 did 40 million in the first 8 months, 30 million in first 6 months, 20 million in the first 3 months. Not even close.


http://www.flickr.com/photos/8786051@N03/8388928239/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8786051@N03/8388954641/

Article of above images: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/01/17/aapl-iphone-outsold-samsung-1-7-to-1-says-raymond-james/

 

[kdw75]

The only thing stopping me from going away from Apple is a decent OS. Why can't Samsung make a phone with the quality of the iPhone and a decent OS? I would buy it in a heartbeat.

 

[frank_drebin]

I haven't noticed that.. Where is it "red hot"? if i wanted an Android phone i d probably get Nexus 4

 

[Guest]

Search about Galaxy S3 "Sudden Death" in the forum XDA to see if it´s worth to buy a phone that can die from nothing. And without Samsung give a good answer about that...

 

[RADIO_ACTIVE]

nana na na hey hey hey good bye....

 

[CyberAngel]

What about Windows 8 Phones?
I see it like this:
SIII going steady
iPhone 5 part orders cut in half
WP8 going bigger and eating Apple

 

[sacre]

I played "Tap tap" on the iphone and the Galaxy, the Galaxy had a slower response time and I kept having to push the button a tiny bit ahead of the time it reached the circle.

So until the Galaxy gets their software right, Iphone is my choice. Smooth interface vs choppy interface?

 

[blakbird24]

[citation][nom]wemakeourfuture[/nom]iPhone is still way ahead of Galaxy in terms of sales and demand.The rate of increase of iPhone demand is increasing over time tooiPhone 5 is going to do 50 million in the first 4 months (estimates that are still on projections, quarterly results will confirm), S3 did 40 million in the first 8 months, 30 million in first 6 months, 20 million in the first 3 months. Not even close.http://www.flickr.com/photos/8786051@N03/8388928239/http://www.flickr.com/photos/8786051@N03/8388954641/Article of above images: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrade [...] ond-james/[/citation]

Wow this misinformation is really making the rounds. The 50 million estimate is the ENTIRE IPHONE LINE. Estimates for the iPhone 5 range from 9M to 16M units. This compares with 65M for the entire Galaxy line, and 18M for the S3. These are all estimates of course, but that's all we have right now.

 

[tirvon]

Huzzah, as the aliens begin to overthrow the evil fruit overlord.

 

[K2N hater]

After all testing different products before making a final decision seems out of fashion...

Lots of examples can be found even here among tech literates: how many of you S3/iPhone 5 owners have actually tried a high-end BlackBerry or Symbian before the purchase?

Oh it must be easy to say they're both a joke as all the reviews seem to be rather negative. Then what if both the positive and negative reviews are actually sponsored by the companies?

That's right, the consumer has been fooled all along. Propaganda wins.

 

[blackened144]

I just switched to the GSIII after having the iPhone3G and the iPhone4 over the last 4 years. I really only switched because I was completely bored with iOS and I got the GSIII for $.01 with a new Sprint contract. Im happy with it so far, but it is a bit more laggy than my iPhone4 was with a few of the games I play which is kind of frustrating considering this phone is so new and my iPhone4 was so old. Im wondering if I should have just paid more can got either the Nexus4 or OptimusG with the S4 Pro SOC.

 

[neon neophyte]

honestly, just look at that picture of them side by side. the iphone looks pretty dated. simply because the design has not changed in so long.

innovate or die.

 

[duncanmoo]

"While Apple's iPhone remains the most coveted smartphone among potential consumers" and then goes on to quute research in North America. Surely Tom's journalists can make logical statements and not sweeping generalizations about the world based on N American markets!

 

[d_kuhn]

I think the iPhone 5 is a nice looking phone (not dated at all)... if I was buying based on looks I'd have gotten it, but I'm more interested in 'how it's going to work for me', and the Android phone just made more sense. I think the big 'problem' Apple is now dealing with is that the rest of the industry has some great products too... and buying an iPhone is no longer the slam dunk decision it used to be.

 

[rocwurst]

rocwurst :

Zac, I think you'd better look more closely at the Changewave graph you reference as your conclusion is quite distorted.

At the launch of the iPhone 5, a massive 71% of consumers planned to buy the iPhone while at the launch of the Samsung 3 during the previous quarter only 19% planned to buy Samsung.

Samsung has been stuck between 13% and 21% for the past 12 months while the iPhone has oscilated between 50% and 71% over the same timeframe. (there is always a seasonal drop after the launch of a new iPhone model in Changewave's charts)

Apple has sold 220 million iPhones in the same time as Samsung sold less than half that - 100 million Galaxy smartphones.

In a single week of sales at the end of Q3 2012, the iPhone 5 captured 27% of the entire worldwide 4G LTE subscriber base according to Strategy Analytics despite Android LTE smartphones being available for more than 12 months prior to that point.

Then there is the 5 million iPhones sold in the launch weekend over 5 countries and 2 million sold over the launch weekend in China and analyst's estimates of an enormous 55 million iPhones being sold in Q4 2012 and Kantar's report that the iPhone captured a massive 53% of smartphone sales in the USA last quarter.

If the Samsung Galaxy S3 is red hot, I guess that means the iPhone is white hot.

You're one quarter behind, my friend.

The reason this is new is because of the trend. Up until the just-past holiday season, Android had been gaining on Apple, HOWEVER, Apple was still advancing. We are now at the pivot. The iPhone 5 launch will go down as the watershed moment in Apple's rise-and-fall story, the definitive point where it could be argued that Apple failed. Every iPhone up to the 4S launched as a truly superior phone. This is what gave Apple its incredible momentum as it appeared that they just existed on another plane, and no one else was operating at their level. The 4S launch is where the doubt began to surface, because it was merely an equivalent to the Galaxy S2 that launched just weeks prior. It was the first time that Apple failed to set the bar at another incredible height. They merely matched their competition. The iPhone 5 confirmed everyone's fears when it launched, as it was actually inferior...for the first time a brand new iPhone was not the best phone available. Apple built it's empire on wowing the world with incredible products that no one else could offer. These days it's simply showing us alternatives to existing concepts. Thus, the bubble is bursting, as they say.

Don't get me wrong, Apple isn't "doomed". They've got so much money on hand that they couldn't possibly go anywhere. However, their days at the top are over. Apple's mobile products will always be competitive offerings, but from here on out the iPhone and iPad will be exactly what the Mac has been for the last decade...a niche computer for a particular type of customer.

We're only a couple of weeks into the new quarter and you reckon all the evidence I provided from last quarter is dated? Go look at Changewave's graph and you will see the trend is indeed clear. The iPhone has been sitting between 50-71% while Samsung has been sitting around 13-21%.

Demand for the iPhone continues at between 2-5 times greater than the Galaxy according to these very same figures that you base your argument on. It is beyond obvious which phone is really "red hot".

 

[damian86]

And then someone was saying..'I'm going to destroy samsung' -looks like things didn't work out!

 

[blakbird24]

[citation][nom]Rocwurst[/nom]We're only a couple of weeks into the new quarter and you reckon all the evidence I provided from last quarter is dated? Go look at Changewave's graph and you will see the trend is indeed clear. The iPhone has been sitting between 50-71% while Samsung has been sitting around 13-21%. Demand for the iPhone continues at between 2-5 times greater than the Galaxy according to these very same figures that you base your argument on. It is beyond obvious which phone is really "red hot".[/citation]

Wow...didn't see how numbers like this were up for interpretation. Let's try this again:

The 2012 Q4 estimates have the iPhone line selling around 50M units. Same estimates have the Galaxy line at 65M units. This is ALL iPhone models vs. ALL Galaxy models (that were available in Q4). As i'm sure you'll agree, 65M > 50M.

Flagship vs. flagship: Q4 estimates range from 9M to 16M for the iPhone 5. I'll be as liberal as possible here and give the 16M figure the nod for the sake of this discussion. Same estimates have the S3 at 18M. Again, simple math shows that 18M > 16M.

Demand numbers have several problems, not the least being that they are very subjective, and that they don't directly correlate to sales. Demand doesn't make money, sales make money.

 

[rocwurst]

The problem is you are relying on analyst guestimates which are notoriously inaccurate

For example, IDC and several other analytical outfits estimated that Samsung sold 2.3 million tablets in Q2 2012. These figures turned out to be ridiculously inflated when Samsung was forced to release what their actual US sales figures for that quarter were - 37,000 tablets.

Changewave's demand figures aren't absolute, but they are indicative of trends. They show that demand for the iPhone 5 hit an all-time high last quarter of 71% compared to a previous high of 65% for the iPhone 4s and 52% for the iPhone 4.

These figures are supported by Kantar who reported the iPhone hit 53% marketshare in the USA last quarter, up from 35% at the same time last year. Android meanwhile has plunged from 53% last year to 42%.

Before you start saying that the USA is not important, note that the US is the largest smartphone market in the world with the highest number of iOS and Android devices in the world with a massive 165 million active devices while China is the next largest with 128 million according to Flurry.

The third largest is the UK with a much smaller 31 million Android & iOS devices and every other nation is lower than that, so it is apparent that the USA and China are by far the most important nations on Earth when it comes to these post-PC platforms.

In terms of China, Apple sold 2 million iPhone 5's in the first weekend which works out at twice the proportion per 3G subscriber as the USA. Analasys International reports that the iPad had a massive 71% marketshare in China even before the release of the iPad mini and indications are that the iPad mini is selling like hotcakes worldwide.

Strategy Analytics reports that Apple captured 27% of the worldwide 4G LTE subscriber base just on the back of the 1week of iPhone 5 sales at the end of Q3 2012 despite android LTE phones having been available for a full year before.

All of this demonstrates that Apple and the iPhone 5 are indeed white hot contrary to your single source which after all is the worst sort of stat - analysts reading tea leaves trying to predict the future.

 

[wemakeourfuture]

[citation][nom]blakbird24[/nom]Wow this misinformation is really making the rounds. The 50 million estimate is the ENTIRE IPHONE LINE. Estimates for the iPhone 5 range from 9M to 16M units. This compares with 65M for the entire Galaxy line, and 18M for the S3. These are all estimates of course, but that's all we have right now.[/citation]

You are completely wrong LOL, its so funny how wrong you are.
They did 5 million in the first weekend (USA, Canada, UK, Japan), then did another 2 million in just the first Chinese weekend. On opening weekends (not even all their opening weekends) they did over 7 million units. Since the iPhone 5 came out they pushed out almost 50 million units.

You're talking 9M to 16M in the first 4 months? You have no clue what you're talking about.

 

[blakbird24]

[citation][nom]Rocwurst[/nom]The problem is you are relying on analyst guestimates which are notoriously inaccurate For example, IDC and several other analytical outfits estimated that Samsung sold 2.3 million tablets in Q2 2012. These figures turned out to be ridiculously inflated when Samsung was forced to release what their actual US sales figures for that quarter were - 37,000 tablets. Changewave's demand figures aren't absolute, but they are indicative of trends. They show that demand for the iPhone 5 hit an all-time high last quarter of 71% compared to a previous high of 65% for the iPhone 4s and 52% for the iPhone 4.These figures are supported by Kantar who reported the iPhone hit 53% marketshare in the USA last quarter, up from 35% at the same time last year. Android meanwhile has plunged from 53% last year to 42%. Before you start saying that the USA is not important, note that the US is the largest smartphone market in the world with the highest number of iOS and Android devices in the world with a massive 165 million active devices while China is the next largest with 128 million according to Flurry.The third largest is the UK with a much smaller 31 million Android & iOS devices and every other nation is lower than that, so it is apparent that the USA and China are by far the most important nations on Earth when it comes to these post-PC platforms. In terms of China, Apple sold 2 million iPhone 5's in the first weekend which works out at twice the proportion per 3G subscriber as the USA. Analasys International reports that the iPad had a massive 71% marketshare in China even before the release of the iPad mini and indications are that the iPad mini is selling like hotcakes worldwide.Strategy Analytics reports that Apple captured 27% of the worldwide 4G LTE subscriber base just on the back of the 1week of iPhone 5 sales at the end of Q3 2012 despite android LTE phones having been available for a full year before.All of this demonstrates that Apple and the iPhone 5 are indeed white hot contrary to your single source which after all is the worst sort of stat - analysts reading tea leaves trying to predict the future.[/citation]

Really? You try to debunk estimates with more estimates? Really?

Awesome.

[citation][nom]wemakeourfortune[/nom]You are completely wrong LOL, its so funny how wrong you are.
They did 5 million in the first weekend (USA, Canada, UK, Japan), then did another 2 million in just the first Chinese weekend. On opening weekends (not even all their opening weekends) they did over 7 million units. Since the iPhone 5 came out they pushed out almost 50 million units.

You're talking 9M to 16M in the first 4 months? You have no clue what you're talking about.[/citation]

Again, more estimates. The estimates I post are wrong, but the ones you cite are right. Of course, that makes sense. Even the most optimistic analysts are saying 55M TOTAL iPhone sales for Q4. Explain how the iPhone 5 could have moved even close to 50M if the entire line sold 55M.

...and finally, both of you need to explain one thing, if the iPhone 5 is outselling the S3 as you claim, how does the S3 currently hold the title of "best selling smartphone in the world"?

 

[rocwurst]

You are posting completely inaccurate, easily refuted future predictions (as wemakeourfotune pointed out), while I have presented past measurements and figures from Apple themselves which are of course infinitely more accurate than those of analysts being as Apple is beholden by the SEC to make accurate statements. Big difference.

Apple themselves in SEC statements have indicated that the iPhone has sold 220 million units over the same timeframe that Samsung reported they had sold 100 million Galaxy smartphones.

Of course, all we have to do is wait till next week for Apple to release their Q4 2012 figures to know exactly how successful the iPhone 5 has been. It is apparent many analysts will be eating their words (or more likely making lots of money having bought Apple shares at the dip after the current smear campaign has done its job).