Ok, first let me preface this by saying that Ray Tracing itself is a relatively mature technology with a wide adoption rate, at least in the commercial space. Animation of course, both for entertainment as well as 3D modeling. Also simulations, product demonstrations, promotional materials, etc. It won't be disappearing anytime soon. But one part of this article keeps going through my head, and since it simply cannot be quoted enough:
However, what these price-panicked pundits don't understand is that there's value in being an early adopter. And there's a cost to either delaying your purchase or getting an older-generation product so you can save money. Unless and until final benchmark results show otherwise, the new features of the Turing cards make them worth buying, even at their current, sky-high prices.
In particular, the assumption that everyone will either be an early adopter and ecstatic about it, delay their purchase and ultimately wind up getting it anyway, or get an older generation product and miss out on the Next Big Thing. There have been a lot of Next Big Things over the years, and most of them are no longer with us. So without further ado, a few selections of past Next Big Things from the Graveyard of Tech, as well as a few that did take off but punished early adopters.
3D TV's.
Looks like nobody even makes them anymore. Anyone got one of these lying around? Not to mention the various (incompatible) glasses that go with them, or the 3D Blu-Ray player it required? Speaking of...
HD DVD.
21st century Betamax, only this one didn't even manage to last 2 years. And technically, Betamax or versions of it were still being sold long after HD DVD was canned. Some honorable mentions here, Laserdisc, and even the first generation of DVD players that couldn't play hybrid discs.
https://www.wired.com/1999/09/cutting-through-the-dvd-matrix/
1st Gen Microsoft Surface.
Not passing judgement on the model itself, just noting the significant early adopter tax. From Wikipedia:
In July 2013, Steve Ballmer revealed that the Surface hasn't sold as well as he hoped. He reported that Microsoft had made a loss of US$900,000,000 due to the lackluster Surface sales. Concurrently, Microsoft cut the price of first-gen Surface worldwide by 30%, with its U.S. price falling to US$350.
Google Glass.
Technically, it lives on, in the form of Google Glass Enterprise Edition. That probably isn't much consolation to any consumers who shelled out $1500 to get theirs first.
First version of pretty much any OS, ever.
In the same vein, people who stood in line for hours so they could be the first to buy a game at midnight, only to get home and find out they still have to sit through a 50 GB day 1 patch.
And finally,
7nm from GloFo.
Not saying that 7nm itself is dead course, but even GloFo has admitted the pursuit of 7nm was simply too costly. They've already spent billions on developing it and it would take billions more to begin mass production. For that matter, they also abandoned their own 14nm process and opted instead to license Samsung's.
It's almost as if the brand new tech was too much of a risk for them. The performance numbers weren't there. It cost too much. They didn't know if adoption rates would be high enough to justify the investment. So it seemed better to go with a more established tech that had already proven itself...
Anyone else have any favorite tech busts, or early adopter regrets to share?