If you disagree, let's flip the equation. Do you think NVIDIA and its board partners are producing the absolute most amount of chips and GPUs at the absolute fastest rate they can?
Again, it's a difference in semantics. Early last year and late 2020, AMD and Nvidia were trying to get as many GPUs as possible as fast as possible. That's for certain. But by the start of this year, Nvidia saw the writing on the wall for mining profitability and demand and had to scale back orders as 2022 kicked off. These projections are done about four to six months in advance, so there's always an element of uncertainty. Is Nvidia asking TSMC to make the absolute highest number of GPUs possible right now? No. Because that would likely cost more money, and it definitely doesn't want to end up with lots of unsold cards.
At the same time, I don't think Nvidia projected six months ago that it could sell a million RTX 4090 cards and then intentionally limited the original supply to maybe 50,000 units. That's probably a reasonable lower estimate of what has shipped, perhaps as many as 125,000. And I don't think Nvidia did
fewer RTX 4080 cards for the launch than it did for the 4090, just so they could also sell out. Now if Nvidia did a forecast and said, "We can probably sell 250,000 4090 cards in the first month" but then only ordered enough wafers to sell 100,000, that's different. Because it would then likely do another 100,000 for months two and three (combined), and then sales will slow down. At some point, Nvidia wants equilibrium so that it sells roughly as many cards as it makes.
You don't flood the market with a maximum order right off the bat. Because by the time you determine how many cards have been sold, and you're projecting how many more you need to order, you're potentially looking at a surplus or shortage that lasts six months while you wait for wafer orders to come through. So yes, Nvidia absolutely "under predicts" the initial sales. But
how much is it coming in under what it thinks it needs? That's where we apparently differ in opinion. Nvidia will probably sell half a million RTX 4080 and 4090 cards by the end of 2022. Maybe it could have sold a million if it ordered more GPUs! But if that's the upper bound on how many potential 4090 buyers there are, Nvidia would want to fill those orders over many months rather than all at once. That's not just marketing, it's business — steady revenue and not feast and famine.
But again, if anyone on here works at some place that actually sells cards and can speak (off the record) to me about unit quantities, I'd love to hear from you. Drop me a PM. How many 4090 cards arrived at Amazon, Newegg, B&H, Best Buy, etc. for the Oct 12 launch? How many 4080 cards for the Nov 16 launch? That's what we really need to know, but that sort of business information is almost never given out. If you're at a single store (e.g. Best Buy) and can just say, "Hey, our store got XXX 4090 cards at launch and yyyy 4080 cards," that would be at least part of the story we want to know.