where i disagree and agree with the article
1. Thin Console
I agree with this the enxt gen consoles will have to start being a bit less bulky , my prediction they wil start using propriety sized (physical dimensions not space on disk) hard drives or SSD's (that wil also not use standard computer SSD dimensions). the old xbox used a desk top hard drive , that was huge , compared to the 360's lap top harddrive and even tose make the new "slim"360 a bit beefier that older cartridge consoles. the next step is make a hard drive that is smaller than a computer or laptop drive, much in the way nintendo made small disk for their game cube system.
2. Merged Entertainment System
while consoles may do this i'd not really care to see them go this direction. I think xbox live and ps2 alkready slam a lot of comercial's in my face start making the systems do more media wise and you wil just open your living room up to yet another device whos behind the scenes function is to throw advertisments at you.
3. Human Controller interface
the article sounds like the author is living in la la land on this point. just because wii has done good for this generation , and the kinect and Move sold well on opening day does not spell longivity. my proof of my case , The NES power glove. it sold like crazy in it's day when it first hit , but after a year or two it faded into history. The reason for that being lack of hardcore game/developer support. Sure casual gamers will make big sales for a year or two or even a whole generation of hardware , but at the end of the day it's the hardcore gamers that that pick up on the next generation of consoles and the next and next and so on. I stil know casual gamers that are plenty happy playing the old super nintendo, and could care less about the current generation. In short order the current mass of casual gamers that play on wii Kinect or move may be eating these technologies up now, but when it comes to tossing down another 300-400 Dollars on new hardware, they just won't be there. So at the end of the day for these technologies to have truely lasting impact they will need devs to utilize them for hardcore games and maybe ever some completely new genres that appeal to hardcore gamers. Now don't take this negativity i show here as "oh this guy just hates kinect and move", because i seriously don't hate them , i just don't think they will last without hardcore games backing them , and i certainly don't think one generation of sucess will equal longivity. A fly has a great day, but at the end of the day the fly is still dead. This one generation is that one day , so as a buisness venture and as a consumer you have to ask are these technologies flys or something else ? and only time can really tell.
4. APU Horsepower
I agree here but not for teh same reasons. It shoudl go with out sayign that the next generation of consoles wil have vastly superior processors in them regardless of rather or not they have motion capture technologies. look at teh original xbox cpu compared to 360's, get my point ? this jsut goes with out saying.
5. Hybrid data storage
i don't see this in the near future certainly not in the generation right around the corner. the day that consoles go compeltely to "cloud" like storage is likely the day that many hardcore gamers decide to not buy the system. Such a system would see dismal seels and likely herald that companies exit form console hardware.The fact remains, that hardcore gamers like control. any time some one has tried to take away said control it has resulted in back lash , look no further than the PC Securom/Spore debacle. sure you can say well that's ahrdcore pc gamers , but when it comes down to it hardcore console gamers are really not that much different than the pc hard core , both like control over thier system and media. While i definitely agree that at least one company will try this at some point, i don't agree that gamers every where will flock to it , i know i wouldn't.
6. Blu-ray,
I agree that they won'tbe dropping disk drives any time soon , however i don't think any console that uses strait online only content , will ever be very sucessful , again see my point under 5. Hard core gamers like control they love collector sets for games and having a physical disk in thier hand. I honestly think microsoft will not only shoot themselves in the foot going all online (just to spite sony at that ) They will compeletely blow thier d--- legs off. and this is coming from some one that has purcahsed and owns over 50 steam games all comepletely digtial downloads. sure it's nice when i don't feel like waiting for a game in the mail or i don't have the time to go to a store. But a console thatis all online ... I'll defintely pass, and i don't think i'm alone on this. Ask me i think MS should swallow thier prie on this oen adn jsut put a d--- blu ray player on thier nest system.
7. lower power consumption, Prices
are you seriously this freaking naive ? for starters the next few generations wont see any of the innovations you are talking about for this point. i can see less power consumption though, chip die's come down quite steadily and smaller dies equally less power draw. but lower pricing ??? excluding nintendo,this is sony and MS we are talking about here they wil cahrge wahte ver tehy can for what ever ammount they think the can get. this reminds me of the time some one once said taht digital downlaod games will cost significantly less tahn physical games cos of no overhead .. guess what most A games cost the same on steam as they do in stores .. and i'd bet my left nut and right butt cheek that we will continue to see console launch prices go up and up and up
In General many of your ideas and points sound exciting to the part of me that is going to school for this field of work (game art design). but as a hardcore gamer the thought that some of these ideas might actualy be worked into future consoles as "the only option" for that generation, i'm down right repusled and screaming no inside, And if most other hardcore gamer's feel as i do , any such system would be a huge disapointment both finicially and hardcore gamer support wise not to forget a really terrible buisness idea. sure some of these innovations would look awsome on a new console , but only if the system provides alternative ways to do things. If any thing, steam and other digital stores have proven that there is no such thing as a "transition". Most pc gamer's still buy physical games as often as they do all digital games if not more. and i think this would hold out of consoles as well. In the end some may like the idea of this or that feature about cloud or online content dleivery , but there will always be just as many people that want the physical disk in thier hand.