Wait, what??? Head on over to Chicago. Some of the toughest gun control laws on the books. Only 78 people shot in one weekend, a few weekends ago. Wonder how many will go down, this weekend, in that utopia of liberal progress...
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Wait, what??? Head on over to Chicago. Some of the toughest gun control laws on the books. Only 78 people shot in one weekend, a few weekends ago. Wonder how many will go down, this weekend, in that utopia of liberal progress...
Well, while Intel is objectively behind the curve, these terms of 7nm 10nm and 5nm are 90% marketing terms. They have little basis for actual comparison.
If we measure these purely by transistor density, then here are a few facts :
- Intel 10nm is more dense than TSMC 7N gen 1
- Intel 10nm is more dense than TSMC 7NP (gen 2)
- Intel 14nm is more dense than TSMC 12nm
- Intel 14nm is more dense than Samsung 14nm
- Intel 14nm is more dense than GloFlo 12nm
- TSMC 7nm+ (newest node) is ~13% more dense than Intel 10nm (this is relatively small)
- Intel's 10nm is nearly twice the density of any other fabs 10nm
Bottom line is that Intel doesn't need to use the other fabs. What they should probably do is start using TSMCs / GloFlo's marketing standard and rename their processes from 14nm -> 10nm and 10nm -> 7nm, because that's what they are equivalent to.
Intel 10nm vs Samsung/TSMC 7nm
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You should know that one city cannot make up for the actions/mistakes of an entire country by itself. The country as a whole - which is what I was talking about - needs to come together for this.
The NRA has too much power and needs to get knocked down a few pegs.
@shady28
That reminds me, wasn't there talk about changes to the whole single number nm specs?
Like in the chart you posted, instead of 'Intel 10nm', it's going to be 'Intel 54-34-53-36nm' or something like that - I can't remember where I saw this though:
-a TPUp article
-a TH article
-a Gamers' Nexus news article
Yep, unfortunately most people just passed over it. It was the result of a study done by some researchers, being engineers they basically don't like how process node tech is reduced to one number that is fairly meaningless. Criticism though, that 3 or 4 number scheme would be meaningless to the consumer.
I see this kind of thing in smaller scale in many areas though. People look for a single, simple thing to describe something. For example, cars. Horsepower. What's the saying, horsepower sells cars but torque wins races?
Anyway, this kind of thing is why so many are 'surprised' at how efficient 14nm still is, it is after all superior to any node short of 7nm. I think the same folks will be "shocked" when 10nm Tiger Lake comes out, provided Intel can get it to work at higher power/frequency. If they can do that, they'll likely dominate the 10-35W laptop space once again (the largest market).
After all, AMD is not using 7nm+ which is the only 7nm TSMC node that is more dense than Intel 10nm, they are using the 2nd gen TSMC 7nm node - which is about 5% less dense than Intel 10nm. What this means is that Intel's 10nm chips are already on a more dense process node than what AMD is shipping on.
attacus
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Indeed. I've been thinking this for a while. Besides, look at that leaked Intel slideshow. The amount of deception and benchmarketing they use, like that one slide where they compare AMD's Ryzen 5/7/9 to Intel's i5/i7/i9, and say it should instead be compared to their i3/i5/i7. So they're not above it, which makes me wonder why. Maybe because people who know about fabrication know that Intel's more dense. But we have someone in the comments here who didn't.
Then again, your average customer doesn't go looking for 10nm products. Maybe their nerdy son does when looking for a laptop for them. Even though 10nm is better, it's had a slew of problems. 7nm is here selling right now, and has been for over a year. 10nm isn't so amazing that it justifies the large time gap, and by the time it's ramped up to full, 5nm will be in full swing, which will be objectively better.
Marketing isn't really illegal, but deceptive marketing can be. Thing is, it's the enthusiast space that has over-hyped this particular term - and many go around using / talking about process node like they know. One example is making fun of the '++' on intel's 14nm. Factually 14nm++ is 30% more dense than the original 14nm. They probably should have just called it 10nm instead of 14nm++, except they had already talked about a 10nm node that is completely different from 14nm++ and is really more like 7nm when compared to competition.
So they basically dug themselves a marketing & perception hole.
As far as 5nm, yes that's a good year ahead of Intel and it is currently in production even if product isn't available yet.
That however doesn't matter in terms of AMD vs Intel. AMD has already said they will be using the 7nm+ node on Ryzen 4000. From a density standpoint, that is about the same as Intel 10nm. Level playing field. If Intel can ramp it up, and if TSMC can ramp up their improved 7nm node.
Maybe where the superior node will matter is Apple Silicon vs x86. What if.. it were say 50% higher IPC and similar clocks with lower power on 5nm which no one else has. Imagine getting a low end macbook pro that wipes the floor with a 3900X or 10900K and runs cool. Now that would be a black swan moment for AMD and intel, a real inflection point in the market. IF.
digitalgriffin
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China engages in something called salami slicing. They are a series of micro aggressions designed to grab very small portions of land through intimidation tactics.
Cases in point:
- India border dispute
- Claiming artificial islands extend their territorial waters by hundreds of miles
- Claiming small islands clearly declared Japanese and others at the end of WW2
- Industrial espionage on a large scale
- Intentional currency manipulation so they become lading economic force
- Spreading lies about competing nations in 3rd world countries in order to gain unfair trade advantage. Their diplomats intentionally told African countries that the US govt invented AIDs to get rid of black men.
- A recent rise in communist terrorist squads burning free press in taiwan.
- Legislative action to restrict Tiawan's rights.
All this activity and more is state sponsored and approved. They are corrupt as the day is long. The world needs to get off China's cheap goods teet so we can tell them to get bent.
Its not the people. Its the leadership which is almost like an oligarchy or legalized mafia. I detest and loathe bullies whom abuse their powers. Even India and Vietnam hates them. Thats saying a lot.
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spongiemaster
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Because it makes zero sense from a financial point of perspective. Intel is selling everything that they can produce. There is no other company on earth that could just pick up that volume. Being stuck on 14nm is having little effect on their bottom line. Idling their 14nm fabs and then paying someone else produce CPU's for them is obviously going to be less profitable than just continuing to pump out 14nm CPU's until they get things figured out.
JerryC
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That's easy. The US owns the process that allows for smaller scale chips to be produced. It is licensed to companies so that they can manufacture chips. So if they say, you can't sell chips made using any of our processes to China, then the company has two options.
1) They stop selling chips to China until the US says that it is okay to sell to China again.
-or-
2) They stop manufacturing anything smaller than 14nm as the US owns the IP to create anything smaller than 14nm. The only reason you can create 14nm is that the US agreed to a public license for anything 14nm or larger using the current IP for the creation of chips. Oh, and they can't move on to graphene, light, or any other production methods because the US owns those IP as well.
Already happening. Apple demanded Foxconn (Chinese company - they assemble the iPhone) expand a factory in India to build the new iPhones, which they did at cost of ~$1B USD.
I don't know of a whole lot of electronics manufacturing in India yet, but they have been ramping up other types of manufacturing significantly in the past decade. Unlike China, much of it is of indigenous design. Since they pay attention to the laws on IP when I say designed I don't mean ripping off someone else's design and livelihood like China does.
India's population is similar to China, and they respect international laws on IP. This is where the real market potential is.
My other hobby, motorcycling, has a new Indian competitor. A company called Royal Enfield, used to be a British company but long ago became Indian. By all accounts, these bikes are quite good.
Royal Enfield Motorräder | Alle neuen Motorradmodelle | Royal Enfield Deutschland
Offizielle Website von Royal Enfield Motorcycles & Bikes in Deutschland. Hersteller von modernen klassischen Motorrädern - Classic 350, Meteor, Interceptor, Continental GT & Himalayan.
www.royalenfield.com
Sales - down overall because of covid's impact on the local Indian market, but booming overseas. Note that prior to 2015, they had no overseas presence. They built this out in 5 years. Still a long way to go but progress so far is amazing.
Royal Enfield Motorcycles - Data & Facts 2023 | MotorCyclesData
In 2023 sales improved ahead any expectations reaching a new record of 0.92 million (+16.2%)
www.motorcyclesdata.com
"+22% in ASIA ( China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan), +16.7% in North America (US, Canada and Mexico) and +82% in Europe, with sales booming in the United Kingdom (+221%), actually the second best market in the World, and in all markets, including Germany (+73%), France (+82%), Italy (+24%), Spain (+59).
Although the almost negative local industries trend, Royal Enfield is fast growing in South America as well, with Argentina +269% and Colombia +40%. "
Worth noting that Harley makes most of its Street / Street Rod in India.
Intel also owns patents related to FinFet, along with Berkley and IBM.
The foundries (TSMC, Samsung etc) went from 28nm to 20nm without using finfet initially, while Intel went from 22-14nm and implemented finfet. This is also when the foundries started deviating from the norm on their process node naming.
Then the foundries implemented finfet and called it 16/14/12nm. In all reality most foundries 14/16nm nodes are 20nm density + finfet, and their 10nm nodes are about the same as Intel 14nm density.
Point being that in the real world, they really can't efficiently make anything below 28nm without using that IP. They can make it more dense like 20nm did but it will take longer to make. have more defects, and ultimately cost more.
Ref: David Kanter - see statements starting at time 5:45
There wasn't an opinion, just a question. And I think I worded it incorrectly. The question was, do western countries work with Taiwan to prevent it from becoming part of China? I did read the wiki before posting my question as well.
One of the longest threads I've seen in a while. This is great! So much information sharing and so many great discussions!
PapaCrazy
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I'm impressed with the range of viewpoints and thoughtfulness and civility in which they were expressed.
New China seems to embody the dystopian future they all predicted. What
I was gunna ask who specifically owns the process IP. Thank you this post!
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Quite aware of the assurance of security - that was made when China couldn't project power much past its nose - those times have changed. At some point China will tire of Taiwan (just as they tired of Hong Kong's calls for independence) and regardless of that treaty, Taiwan will become part of mainland China.
I do not think the Taiwanese would outright declare independence - they also realize that treaty was made long ago with a much different China.
And what would China lose if they did? All of a sudden no more cheap crap made in China, and would take an awful long time to replicate the supply chains and re establish manufacturing elsewhere. China knows that they are basically untouchable. At least with the TPP we had a chance to contain China (somewhat) and strengthen Asian countries (somewhat)
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First off - Intel has been shipping 10nm in products since last September/October. The last 14nm Server CPU have shipped (Cooper Lake) and Rocket Lake S (later this year) will be the last 14nm Desktop CPU. Ice Lake SP (Xeon), Tiger Lake and a discrete graphics cards will launch this year. All TSMC has with it's "7nm" is a 10nm class project.
Next year we get Sapphire Rapids with DDR5 and PCIe5 - which will be part of the Exascale computer and will use Xe HPC based on Intel full EUV 7nm - which is more than a match for TSMC "5nm".
Update your talking points - TSMC is a contract producer, they have to aggressively have their marketing touting ever single tiny improvement...Intel is in full production with 10nm+
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Agree with the comment about Corporate Personhood that stems back to a disastrous Supreme Court ruling - same with Citizen's United and unlimited dark money. Don't care what anyone says - Money is not speech. And while we are at it stop giving tax advantages to moving manufacturing capacity over seas.
Trump has done nothing against China - they were so mad they granted Inanka broad patents. All Trump has done is to create a situation that he can "solve". September surprise - "Trade War with China successfully negotiated by Trump - the Tariffs he imposed brought China to their knees - they became tired of sending $$$ to pay for the tariff's Trump imposed on them" China laughs at him, they know he is a buffoon.
So, according to Trump - Tariffs are placed on the country of origin of products covered by the tariff - instead of the correct understanding is that WE the consumers pay for those tariffs. And if he really wanted to stick it to China, then the TPP would have not been scrapped - it was quite Anti China / Pro Pac Rim countries.
As far as our long game - could not agree with you more - every other single industrial country has an Industrial Policy - we have nothing. China does 1-3-5 year plans and then executes. This deficit in policy goes way back. Looking at what Germany has would be a start. Was not needed since in the aftermath of WW2 - most of the rest of the world's industrial capacity was destroyed - and we still have policies that make that assumption.
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Ridiculous straw man. CPUs from 10 years have the same price, due to the fact they are becoming scarce, and for some customers, they are locked into those CPUs. Pretty sure you can still find DDR2 - and would probably not be cheap.
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Your fact-check needs a fact-check. The Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty was terminated 40 years ago.
Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
It got scrapped around the time the US ceased even officially recognizing Taiwan.
Taiwan Relations Act - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Now, one can argue what might or might not have happened prior to that time, had the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty not been in place, but if the Korean war didn't teach the US it couldn't win a land war with China, certainly China's acquisition of nukes (1964) would've put an end to such fantasies.
That's just called good business, son.
And I'd argue that Taiwan's defenses were never (realistically) about the military defeat of an invading force from the mainland, but simply trying to make the endeavor too costly. I think that deterrence has largely worn off, though I still don't expect China to go into Taiwan with guns blazing.
China can do whatever it pleases. The only thing keeping them from waltzing into Taiwan is concerns over global public relations, and the fear of more economic sanctions being imposed on it. However, as Xi Jinping seems to regard it as a crowning achievement that would cement his legacy, I think he'll try to find some way in.
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China certainly has the talent, the money, and the motivation. They'll get there, in time.
Your mistake is to assume that anyone is really looking out for the long-term interests of the US tech workforce. Big tech can and does locate design centers wherever there's talent and it's either cheap or subsidized. So, tech CEOs and investors don't really care what happens to the US tech worker. They'd be happy to employ more US tech workers, but they want them to be cheaper, more plentiful, and more easily exploitable. That's why they're trying to funnel all the kids into STEM education.
And most politicians don't really know or care. They're mostly captured by industry lobbyists and Wall St. economists, who keep banging the drum of free trade. Free trade has certainly been good for multinational corporations, but not necessarily the US workforce. Most politicians are trained as lawyers - not real business people, engineers, mathematicians, or even economists. So, they keep hearing the same chorus about free trade and don't have the intellectual tools to know when to call BS.
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You seem to get my point. He had the will, but not a very good plan, it seems. Hardly surprising.
His efforts should be graded by their end result. So far, the best that can be said is that it's incomplete. And not without costs, as many of the US agricultural producers could certainly tell you.
Well, what about China's boycott of the NBA, when that Houston Rockets coach tweeted something mildly supportive of the Honk Kong protestors? They are intent on keeping celebrities and entertainment companies from speaking out.
And China is such a big market for movies and other content... which are mostly produced by studios owned by the same parent companies that own most of the big US news networks. So, it's only a matter of time before (if it's not quietly happening, already) China starts using that as leverage to keep negative news about it from getting reported in the US media.
So, hooray for media consolidation! We're just making it too easy for them.
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I believe Intel doesn't have just one 10 nm. I think the only one they've shipped in volume has been their lowest-density variant, which I think I read was either less dense or comparable to TSMC's 1st gen 7 nm.
If Intel's 7 nm is as late and problematic as their 10 nm has been, it won't matter.
I'm not counting Intel out, but they've really lost a lot of credibility.
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I have been to Chengdu twice
Intel 10nm (Ice Lake) is ~2x density increase - they attempted 2.7x in a first gen on a new process. and that is what bit them on the butt. 10nm+ (Tiger Lake) reaches that 2.7x density - along with the "transistor optimizations" that is part of Willow Cove.
Nah they haven't lost credibility - still the dominant player, still maintaining market share - 10nm initially was a screw up - but If you look at TSMC - they have luckily gotten something right, which is counter to their history. When Ice Lake SP drops - it will sell as fast as they can be produced - 2S is the meat and potatoes. Intel doesn't measure it's credibility based on forum posts.
Sapphire Rapids is next year - reunifies the Xeon line from 1S to 8S - 10nm - Sapphire Rapids will be going into the Exascale system along with it's Xe HPC - Xe HPC is the first product in the Full EUV 7nm - and no reason whatsoever to think that it will be delayed (after Xe HPC then there will be a shrink of Alder Lake to Meteor Lake and a shrink from Sapphire Rapids to Granite Rapids)- it was developed independently from 10nm and the shortness of the 10nm node is because Full EUV 7nm is on track. Also don't confuse having a few EUV layers as being EUV - Full EUV in Intel's process will be all layers, and combined with the M0/M1 cobalt layers - pretty well takes that "crown" back.
Good catch on the abrogation of the Treaty protecting Taiwan - slipped my mind completely.
I disagree with that. China might get close to parity in some things, but not in the way you think.
I've seen instances where entrepreneurs had a great idea, went to a Chinese manufacturer to have their idea turned into a physical product, and before their first product rolled off the line a clone was already shipping. Even the big western corporations typically don't bother to take these manufacturers to court, and when they do it's typically fruitless. They shut one down only to have them pop up somewhere else. Chasing Chinese shell companies is a waste of resources.
In that environment, what incentive is there to do anything but rip other people and companies off?
Also logical fallacy repeated here a bunch is the 'lots of people with skill' argument. China's population did not just appear out of nowhere over the last 10 years. They've always had a lot of people, and many of those people have always been skilled and intelligent.
The problem is fundamental, it takes more than quantity of bodies and brains to innovate. If that is all it took then China would have dominated the world 2000 years ago. They simply do not have the culture or environment that would develop and encourage creativity and innovation. They are great reverse engineers yes, but reverse engineering is a just a job.
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