Although it may seem neat I doubt VR headsets will be more than a niche product. Most people won't want to wear such bulky and complicated products. Just having to wear glasses killed 3DTV. Most people that got one tried the glasses once or twice. Didn't like them and returned to standard HD content.
As there will be so few people using them. Most games won't support them. Just as 3DTV had a meteoric rise before crashing. Publishers will be enthusiastic for a while then abandon the technology. When they realize it costs them more to support the technology then they get in sales.
Also there is no standard for VR. If publishers have to design support for each competing brand. VR will die a very quick death.
Although I certainly agree with the sentiment that investing heavily in VR is a risk--I mean, there are no high-end HMDs on the market yet, even though the final prototypes are amazing--I disagree with some of your other points.
First, IMHO, VR/AR is significantly more compelling as a technology, and in terms of possible use cases, than 3D ever was.
At first, of course, VR/AR will be nichey, but you could argue the same of PC gaming. THAT is technically a niche, but obviously it's also mega business. Same with consoles.
The big key is content. Content, content, content. I asked Brendan Iribe back at CES why I couldn't buy a Rift yet. He basically said that the content ecosystem just wasn't there yet. He was right. But there are some really great things happening in the content world:
1) Game publishers are investing into VR titles (or VR derivatives of titles). You're correct that it's a big investment, and it may prove financially troubling, but I think the payoff will be big enough in the end. I think. I hope.
2) I think you have a compelling point about the lack of a standard for VR, but Epic is working very hard to create a de facto standard. We've covered this numerous times, including:
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/immersed-europe-james-golding-epic-games,29957.html
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/immersed-europe-keynote-vr-audio,30037.html
3) Homemade content. This is a quiet little section of the VR/AR world, but it's going to make all the difference: There are more and more 360-degree cameras coming to market. And YouTube supports 360-degree content. Which means that you and I and everyone else will soon be able to create content that will work on YouTube and inside of VR HMDs. That's HUGE. Even moreso because you can grab a cheap Google Cardboard HMD ($20!!), pop in the phone you already have, and view all kinds of cool content.
Kind of like this:
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/oneplus-2-vr-launch-event,29689.html
You can use your imagination on what's possible...
(Sorry, it appears I've written an entire article here, heh...)