If the rumors are correct, and the PS3 will drop to $199, I think you can remove the last barrier anyone would have in buying a PS3. That is really a cheap price for the box, considering what it can do. I use mine as a media machine 1st, then as a game machine. It's still worth $299 to me. Could care less about 3d, good luck getting people to support that after everyone just finished moving to HD.
As for Kinect, I simply don't see the attraction. I don't want to wave my arms around. I want to sit on the couch, conserving as much energy as possible, and not think about the heat of summer heating my house. Once the novelty wears off, what exactly is innovative?