AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

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Here's an idea... How much more expensive would be for AMD to release the FX line in FM2/FM2+/FM3 sockets? I know ditching the AM3+ socket would be such a sad thing, but you have a very good point there. If they fit the new FX'es in the same socket as the APU line, I wonder if they would save money instead of making the whole platform more expensive. This applies to servers as well. G34 is good and all, but getting a new chipset out for server APUs and low cost servers using GPU-less Opterons would be a great thing.

For MoBos makers, they could just make the DVI, HDMI and VGA connectors an additional dongle when the user picks the APU and keep the USB and eSATA ports in the back as usual. Man, that would be sweet.

Cheers!
 


#+1

 


Either way, it will still be less than the 4770K, myth busted. Power is nothing for the heavy PC user, it is nothing compared to the cost of your fridge or A/C.
 

Also, for four years@5 hours load, the 8350 costs 92 GBP to operate, that is still less than the BASE price of the 4770K (4770K Base price=265GBP, 8350=150GBP 8350+Power=242) don't act like the 4770K does not consume power also :lol:
 

8350rocks

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Sorry, earlier I clicked the wrong MB, it was right next to the Sabertooth, build with equivalent MB to the AMD MB:

PCPartPicker part list: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/1fc4f
Price breakdown by merchant: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/1fc4f/by_merchant/
Benchmarks: http://pcpartpicker.com/p/1fc4f/benchmarks/

CPU: Intel Core i7-4770K 3.5GHz Quad-Core Processor ($329.97 @ OutletPC)
CPU Cooler: Cooler Master Hyper 212 EVO 82.9 CFM Sleeve Bearing CPU Cooler ($29.98 @ Outlet PC)
Motherboard: Asus SABERTOOTH Z87 ATX LGA1150 Motherboard ($241.99 @ SuperBiiz)
Memory: G.Skill Ripjaws X Series 8GB (2 x 4GB) DDR3-1866 Memory ($71.99 @ Newegg)
Storage: Western Digital Caviar Blue 1TB 3.5" 7200RPM Internal Hard Drive ($69.99 @ Newegg)
Video Card: XFX Radeon HD 7970 GHz Edition 3GB Video Card ($410.91 @ Newegg)
Case: Zalman Z12 Plus ATX Mid Tower Case ($64.99 @ Microcenter)
Power Supply: PC Power & Cooling Silencer Mk III 750W 80 PLUS Gold Certified ATX12V Power Supply ($99.99 @ Newegg)
Optical Drive: Asus DRW-24B1ST/BLK/B/AS DVD/CD Writer ($16.99 @ Newegg)
Total: $1436.79
(Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available.)
(Generated by PCPartPicker 2013-07-10 11:58 EDT-0400)
 


Fixed it for you in a few posts above. http://pcpartpicker.com/p/1fb2D
 

8350rocks

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I clicked the wrong MB, see above...it's over $150 more expensive without the SSD
 

Cazalan

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Technically they probably could as they still sell Athlon for FM2 which has graphics fused off. But the savings I'm talking about is the 100+million for every new die to be fabbed/tested for production.

The numbers I heard for APU:FX was 8:1. So 8 times as many APUs selling. Even if their margins were 100% higher for FX the APUs would still be 4 to 1 ratio. So where is it better to spend that 100mil?

If AMD wants more powerful APUs in the short term it would be better to make that 6 core APU and introduce an A12-xxxx series.
 

8350rocks

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Thanks :)
 


+1, and with the SSD (see post above this), it ventures into the 1500s. Surely $92 in power can fix this :sarcastic:
 

8350rocks

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I have to say, an A12 APU (6 cores) with HD 7790ish iGPU...? I would buy that in a heartbeat...especially @ FX 6350 clock speed...even if it was $180-200 that's a steal...

FX 6350 ~$130-140
HD 7790 ~$140

So, ~$270-280 vs. ~$200...that's a no brainer...
 


I had thought of something bit more ambitious a loong time ago before the trolls invaded, a 6-Core Kaveri with 8830-ish (Between 7790 and 7870) GPU performance and with FX 6300/6350+ overall CPU performance. I suspect something like you posted will be launched in a Kaveri refresh some time in 2014, but we have no evidence assuring us this will happen. I think that Excavator will introduce 8-Core APUs and the end of a 942 pin legend (20nm time lol).
 

Cazalan

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Instead of rehashing old benchmarks and old chips, how about making some new benchmarks on what a 4C SR might perform like. I think you could do that by taking an FX-8350@4.6Ghz with odd cores disabled (1/3/5/7).
 


8350rocks! Start benchmarking :D! This could give us a neat analysis.
 

cowboy44mag

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+1 cutting through the BS and comparing two identical systems ie same psu, same dedicated graphics, and say you can get the memory and hard drive, cooler all for same price so the only difference is the cost of processor and cost of motherboard:

Intel i7 4770K Haswell 3.5 GHz - $349.99 USD
ASUS Sabertooth X79 LGA 2011 Intel X79 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 ATX Intel Motherboard - $324.99 USD

VS

AMD FX 8350 Vishera 4.0 GHz - $199.99 USD
ASUS SABERTOOTH 990FX/GEN3 R2.0 AM3+ AMD 990FX SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 ATX AMD Motherboard -$199.99

ALL prices obtained from NEWEGG

That isn't a $50 difference, that is a $275 difference just for the processor and motherboard. If you can find one on a big sale you might do a little better, but if you can find one on sale you can find the other on sale too, so the price difference will always be the same for someone who is going to search the entire internet to find a deal.

How many years would you have to run your computer compared to an AMD build for your initial investment to pay off? By the time it does pay off your going to have a very old outdated processor and have probably updated anyway therefore you save NOTHING!!

People who build Intel over AMD aren't looking to save money, they already have bigger budgets that they can spend on their rig.
 


Fixed! Refer to my July 10, 2013 8:59:37 AM post for even more in depth analysis.
 
Interesting little tidbit for those following the new consoles: It appears that of the XB1s 8GB of RAM, only 5GB will be guaranteed for developer use, the rest reserved for the OS (probably due to the task switching, if I had to guess). And at least one dev (Respawn [Titanfall]) is complaining about this constraint.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=618996

This constraint would also lead me to believe that its unlikely we'll see a major shift toward 64-bit native titles this generation, as you can use a PC's HDD/paging to work within the 32-bit 4GB Address Space limit. Still. this would indicate that HDD's might become a performance bottleneck this generation...
 

8350rocks

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Good breakdown of Kaveri architecture with clear diagrams:

http://www.info-pc.info/2013/07/amd-kaveri-apu-architecture-detailed.html

Supposed FX 9590 benchmarks:

http://www.info-pc.info/2013/07/amd-centurion-fx-9590-5-ghz-processor.html

Volcanic Islands GPU ES spotted:

http://www.info-pc.info/2013/07/amd-radeon-hd-9970-engineering-samples.html

http://wccftech.com/amd-radeon-hd-9970-engineering-samples-shipped-manufacturers/

Newest Intel Roadmap shows IB-E 6 Core and Hasfail are here to stay for quite a while (no 8 cores until 2H 2014 or early 2015):

http://www.info-pc.info/2013/07/leaked-intel-cpu-roadmap-reveals.html
 

juanrga

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1)
The promised 15% increase over Ivy is quoted in lots of sites. Two of them:

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30007-haswell-targeting-up-to-15-percent-faster-cpus

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/154192-haswell-cpu-pricing-leaks-suggests-intel-is-shifting-focus-to-low-and-mid-range

2)
Intel cares about iGP enough to invent a new brand and then advertise about it. But Intel new brand is being massively rejected by OEMS.

3)
Yes Haswell consumes more power than Ivy

power-4.png


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Power_4770K_edit_v2.png


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4)
Yes Haswell overclocks poor than Ivy and achieve unsafe temperatures

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2041337/intels-new-haswell-chips-may-be-hot-but-not-in-a-good-way.html

http://techreport.com/news/24950/intel-removes-modest-free-overclocking-from-standard-haswell-cpus

5)
Not only Toms is recommending Ivy over Haswell, but even a heavily pro-Intel site as Anandtech has said that Haswell desktop "is a joke".

Summary:

FAIL + FAIL + FAIL + FAIL + FAIL = Hasfail = Hasbeen = Failwell
 

jdwii

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No

 

jdwii

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This has already been proven not to matter it would take 7 years to even make the difference between a I5 and 8350fx in the U.S and some other country's.
 

jdwii

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That is pretty sad i still can't understand microsoft fans why would anyone buy a Xbox 1? A PS4 i understand its a good value system and its cheaper and more powerful then a Xbox 1 and you WILL be able to notice in most games since its GPU has 50% more resources and 2.5 times more bandwidth.
 

juanrga

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Anadtech benchmarks!!! ho ho ho



No, but Haswell is Intel bulldozer.
 

8350rocks

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This article is a great read...I will quote the most relevant parts:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1462371-how-big-of-a-win-were-consoles-for-amd

One of the barriers to features like HSA catching on is ensuring software is actually coded for HSA hardware. If extemetech.com is correct and both Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox One and Sony's (SNE) PS4 are both HSA compliant, then programmers are already writing code with this shared memory architecture, and they're actually enjoying it. Not to mention a fellow contributor pointed out to me that the Xbox One is running a Windows kernel, and is reported to be an HSA device. I do not believe it's out of the question to think Microsoft could release a version of Windows optimized for HSA. Microsoft is pushing into the tablet and smartphone sectors. These devices use either x86 or ARM based SoCs at their core. Microsoft would benefit from the optimizations as much as chip vendors. Having programs optimized for HSA hardware could be big for Intel's competition. Having an operating system optimized for HSA could be huge.

A Look Back

For those of us that don't remember, luckily there is Tom's Hardware Guide. On THG, look at historical benchmarks as we made the shift from 32 bit to 64 bit processors. Intel also chose to handle data a little differently than AMD. AMD chose to do more work per clock cycle, whereas Intel focused on netburst to do smaller steps quicker. There is a good summary on geek.com. The arguments to who was the performance king between Intel and AMD were not so one sided. In 2005, there weren't as many players in the space Intel had to worry about.

Fast forward to AMD's Bulldozer. AMD bet incorrectly by sacrificing single-threaded performance for multiple-threaded performance and suffered. AMD's excuse was that the operating system did not know how to handle AMD's radical new design, making the new design inefficient. Supposedly Windows 8 was supposed to help, but benchmarks on Tom's Hardware Guide showed very little improvement (about 1%). The Bulldozer architecture is where I feel Intel really started gaining an insurmountable lead over AMD.

Learning from Mistakes

I bring up the x64/netburst and Bulldozer examples to show how the handling of data can make huge differences in CPU performance. In the first example, AMD had the advantage over Intel. In the Bulldozer example, not so much.

Looking at benchmarks of high end Ivy Bridge CPUs vs. Sandy Bridge, you can see a marginal performance increase; sometimes even the flagship i7-3770k Ivy Bridge is outperformed by an i5-2550k Sandy Bridge. Leaked benchmarks of an i7-4770k Haswell compared to an i7-3770k show again only a relatively small performance increase.

Compare these to benchmarks of generational changes of AMD processor lines, and you can see that AMD has larger generational changes compared to Intel, but still significantly lag Intel in terms of performance.

How Could HSA Change the CPU Landscape?

There are a few scenarios that could be important to investors.

1. HSA could fizzle out, and nothing comes of it. I feel this is highly unlikely since both next generation consoles should be HSA devices. In this scenario both Intel and AMD are likely to see revenue go up since neither have much of a current presence in the mobile space.

2. Individual programs could benefit from HSA on a case by case basis. This could give AMD or ARM based SoCs an advantage in these specific programs. I feel this is the most likely scenario, and will help diminish Intel's lead over AMD. Intel and AMD are still both likely to see revenues go up however, because they're both seeing revenue growth in new segments. But it could make AMD more attractive to consumers than the first scenario.

3. The biggest win for AMD and ARM would be if operating systems were optimized for HSA hardware. Intel currently has a very small market share of mobile devices. Seeking Alpha contributor Mr. Tom Luongo directed me to a post at semiaccurate hinting that there is one major unnamed player in the HSA foundation. I would never rely on rumors alone, but it's also foolish to ignore them. I use them as a tell-tale of things to look for. It was a well spread rumor that Xbox was using an AMD APU before Wall Street took notice.

If Microsoft optimizes Windows for HSA hardware, this would be the biggest win for AMD and ARM. Many people feel AMD's only position in the semiconductor industry is to prevent Intel from stagnating. You can see from my examples above of the x64 architecture and Bulldozer that how a CPU handles data can make much more of a difference than the silicon the CPU is made on. After all, CPUs and SoCs execute software. And I do not believe an HSA compliant Windows is out of the question, since it could aid Microsoft in their press into the mobile space. Again, to be clear, so far this is only a rumor, and it's not as wide spread as the rumor of Xbox One featuring an AMD APU was.

ARM is also a member of the HSA foundation. Intel is very close to eating ARM's lunch with Bay Trail. Intel's Clover Trail Atom looked very impressive when compared against Nvidia's Tegra 3. Intel's Bay Trail may be an even more compelling alternative to an ARM powered processor. If HSA takes off, an HSA optimized Android OS could neutralize some of Intel's process advantage by making ARM processors run more efficiently than Intel.
 

juanrga

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Those benchmarks are more realistic for estimating the performance of the PS4 than biased cinebench and sysmark running on windows 7/8.

The jaguar was faster than the sandy bridge, therefore will be able to compete with ivy Bridge. The 8-core jaguar in the console will compete with an ivy Bridge i7 in a PC. Precisely an i7 is selected for comparisons. E.g. Epic uses a i7 + 16GB RAM + GTX-680.
 
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