Not that it really matter but it's 11 months, not 14. The 6800U was released in July 2004 and the 7800 GTX was released in June of 2005. That is 11 months not 14....it's in the links.
Your link is wrong, it talks about D3 alone pretty much focusing on the [H] article, not the GF6800U launch but the D3 launch. Read mine like I posted first, that the GF6 launch date.
http://www.nvidia.com/object/IO_12687.html
SANTA CLARA, CA—APRIL 14, 2004—NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA), the worldwide leader in visual processing solutions, introduced today the NVIDIA® GeForce™ 6800 models of graphics processing units (GPUs) for high-performance desktop computers.
Here's the THG review, April 14 2004:
http://www.tomshardware.com/2004/04/14/performance_leap/index.html
http://www.nvidia.com/object/IO_23415.html
SAN FRANCISCO, CA—JUNE 22, 2005—NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA), a worldwide leader in graphics and digital media processing, today unveiled the NVIDIA® GeForce™ 7800 GTX graphics processing unit (GPU)
So 14+ months from GF6800U to GF7800GTX. But whether you want to admit 14 months or try and stick to 11 months, either way your definition doesn't fit either period.
Well maybe the G80 was scheduled for a Spring/Summer release but it was only 5 or 6 months from the time the 7950 GX2 was released until the G80 was.
Which doesn't matter, I'm not bothering with your definition of a product cycle, it's your statement of no nV delay. The G80 was delayed, period.
However there's a growing rumor on Nvidia's side that they've dumped the G81 in favor of the G90.
That's an old rumour, and one that always made sense since the 81 was supposed to be 80nm, and still not come until the end of summer, so why bother, just OC the G80 call it the ultra or GF8900 series, and then jump to the next logical step. The Inq pretty much said as much almost a month ago;
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=37791
Now the InQ not a good gospel but the arguments in their article make alot of sense, and even more so now that there's added pressure to go 65nm.
If that rumor turns out to be true, then honestly, it's up in the air who will win this latest gfx race.
Well it's unlikely that that's what nV's got ready for the R600 at this point unless they started to 65nm already, which might be the case, but it'd be more surprising than AMD, since ATI had always planned an 80->65 jump fairly early one, whereas nV was previously 90->80 for the G80 and then 65nm for the g90 in the fall 07 or winter 08. However, if nV were ready and doing their spin now their part would reach market by about July.
Thing is though, even if ATi releases a 65nm R600 or R650 which some people over at the Rage3d forums are saying...ATi has still lost a product cycle.
Which doesn't really matter, especially if nV also skip a product by going to 65nm and skipping 80nm. Why release a more expensive slower part when you can release a less expensive faster part within the same time frame? It's like crying over spilled milk, they didn't waste time trying to make the 80nm work, just cut your loses and go to R650. Leave the 80nm parts you may already have for the GPGPU stream co-processing engines for professional applications. It's not like AMD brought alot of product to market that went unsold, that would be a much larger concern.
I think Nvidia will try to wait until ATi releases their R600, but if they take too long, I don't believe they'll just wait until it's released no matter how long it is because they have a schedule to keep and they'll release it at some point despite ATi.
Actually, that doesn't make sense. Why would nV rush anything to market if they don't have to? They want to extend their profitable lines without need of refresh for as long as possible, most of their refreshes come because of the need to fill a gap, not to keep on some imaginary schedule. Without a competitive part from ATi/AMD you can easily see nV slowing their timetable, just like they did with the GF6800s. nV's not going to cut their own sales if they don't believe that the R600 is coming or competitive. However since they obviously do believe in it arriving in May with the possibility it
could be better than their refresh, then they've chosen the wise thing to do and launch the GF8800U/GF8900 in April, before potentially being obsoleted, and also giving nV something to crow about in that they will have launched the original G80 and it's first refresh before AMD go their part to market, essentially getting 2 before the other 1. Launching a month before the R600 also gives them the chance to sell off as many of their old parts as possible while they quickly switch gears to 65nm, should they launch the GF8800U/8900 after the R600 and the R600 were faster, it would be harder to get rid of old stock they have built up.
Alot of these things are simple economic game theory where they run scenarios for the planning stage with the limited info they have. The thing that changes the whole playing field is when these cards come out and actually get some face time so that people can start comparing their value of the features and performance they offer. Until then anything can happen, including a speedy jump to the G90 for summer/fall.
Of course both of these actions (skipping processes) hurt AMDs and nV's margins and greatly inflate their R&D costs since they don't extend the products long enough to maximize the recuperation of these costs.
Anywhoo, alot to look forward to over the next few weeks, but don't ignore the realities of the past, neither company has an immaculate track record. FUD and such abounds prior to launch and right up until the end rumours are the currency of the realm, like the unified R520, the Hybrid G80, etc.
No I posted the Nvidia links that I wanted you to see. I wanted you to see the dates from the 6800 Ultra to the 7800 GTX and how far apart they are...11 months.
I'd never thought I'd say this but I miss paper launches. At least with them, you know what a certain product will do and how it will perform. Here we are with all these rumors floating out, but right now, it's beginning to look more and more viable that the R600 65nm rumor is possibly true. When you see and here people and more importantly web sites report on this, it makes you think and the more sites post this, the more likely it's true.
I've actually found the Inq to be pretty trustworthy and like I've said before if there's a source that's in question, they say so and pretty much all the time when they say they trust a source to be truthful, they're right. That said, I think the 65nm rumor might be true because they've posted a few stories on this now and about 2 in the last couple days along with a handful of other sites and more gaining steam each day. Plus like you said, the closer the time to the release, the more truth comes out. Of course the problem now is, we don't know when the actual release date of the R600 will be since it could be delayed again.
All I know is that I'll give ATi until April 22 with the Intel price drop to see what's going to be released and then I'll see what's going on at that time. I'll just be supremely pissed if I end up waiting until the end of May like AMD/ATi said the R600 would be released...(they actually said between March and May) and then they pop up saying oh, it's definitely gonna be released between June and August. Sorry, but if that happens I'm done with ATi this year no matter if they release a 45nm R600 with 2GB of GDDR5 RAM with a 1024MB-bit bus! I don't mean to be so pessimistic, but I feel I was screwed waiting for the R520 for about 5 months altogether and now I feel it's happening all over again.
All and all I must say, with this rumor, the R600 is really starting to shape up as a GeForce killer. I know it doesn't really matter as long as a card works fine for you, but if you've got the money to buy either one of the top cards out at the time, you can't say, Oh, I don't really care that my card is 50% slower. If two cards are out and one is significantly faster than the other one and they're both the same price (or very close to it), you're gonna want to get the faster one.
I like both ATi and Nvidia, but for the past two years (that's including this year) I've wanted an ATi card because it looks like the better card...at least on paper. I absolutely loved my Radeon 9800 Pro, and that's the only ATi card I've owned before and I also love my 7800 GTX 512 card and I've had no problems whatsoever with either card, but I've got to say that the last time I saw a big difference from and older card to a new upgrade was when I went from my GeForce 4 Ti4400 to the Radeon 9800 Pro. When I went from my 9800 Pro to the 7800 GTX 512 (actually it was from the 9800P to the 7800 GTX, then to the 7800 GTX 512), I didn't see that WOW factor that I had with the 9800P despite the fact that the 7800 512 is obviously much much faster than the 9800 Pro. Sorry to ramble on.....just excited about these rumors!