Played with MS surface tablets this week, they feel clunky and 3 years behind the competition. Very unintuitive interface, lack of multitouch gestures and crappy maps. That's what $499 gets you. Everyone in the store was just as irritated with the interface and spent more time trying to figure out how to do anything on the tablet and commenting on its imperfections. Meanwhile, everyone already knows how to use an iPad mini, they feel light and smooth to the touch. Apple maps may be crap compared to Google Maps on the Nexus 7, but it's eons ahead of Microsoft.
I don't think iPad mini is Surface's biggest threat, it's Microsoft's inability to do anything right. Microsoft said they'll sell nearly 10 million of these next year. They'll be lucky with 5, and it will be sad to watch them throw away $1.5 billion in marketing costs to achieve 2-3 billion in sales.
Just ask your friends and family, who's in a rush to get the surface tablet for x-mas this holiday season. You see any high school kids envying their classmates with a surface? Anyone on facebook even mentioning it (besides sponsored storied)? You walk into a starbucks, library or a classroom, anyone using a surface yet? How about the commuter train or bus? It's been a week, I haven't seen a single one. It's a hackjob wannabe product that's three years too late to the market.