Here's how I see the future:
- Corporate (office) environments are already moving to Linux/LibreOffice (which obviously include all the software for web surfing and other accessories), they don't need windows anymore
- Casual gamers have in the most part moved to consoles, soon they will have the option of a very cheap and open-source console ( the OUYA ), or playing on tablets/smartphones.
- Serious gamers could move to Linux if Valve promotes game development for Linux (since they are about to launch Steam for Linux). Alternatively, the go the Apple route.
- Creative work (graphics, music) is already done on Macs (most of it), so there's another category of users which don't need windows.
- Windows 8 is a piece of crap which will only land in the hands of those that don't have a clue what they are buying (and will buy expensive PC's with Win8 installed)
- most Servers have been on Unix/Linux for a long time already, the Windows server marketshare has been in decline for years already.
- People that only want to browse the web and use socializing networks have the option of smartphones, tablets... they don't really need an expensive PC with an expensive Windows for that.
- OEMs are being screwed over by MS with their recent policies, and might choose more and more to deliver PC's without windows installed (either with FreeDOS or Linux), I've seen a TON of laptop models lately without windows at tall.
Conclusion ? In less than 5 years Microsoft will be pushed out of the operating system business, and it's doubtful that they will gain any significant share in other businesses... and they will slowly but surely die like the dinosaur they are.
Losing PC gamers is the critical point in which the definitive decline of windows will happen.
I am and have always been a windows user/administrator/programmer, but I'm thinking seriously of learning to use/understand/program on other OSes (Unix based), this includes Android, Apple desktop OS, mobile iOS and obviously Linux itself.
Thank you MS for the wonderful ~20 years spent with you
But goodbye, soon... time to move on!