Don't worry about your style. It is good. I tend to joke with grave things and be a bit careless with details. It is part as my nature as Portuguese.
This time i have more time to elaborate. I'm sorry i didn't earlier, and i should have done it.
The WWII example you just missed it. Mea Culpa on this one.
Destroying all the Military hardware makes sense in a two-edged blade.
One is altruistic, witch i think it is a lame excuse, the other is one much more truer. You can't sell armament in a already flooded market. Look at De Beers bussiness model. They more than enough diamonds, but to control their pricing, they control their flow. Russian and Angolan Diamonds leave their optic, but it is a minor problem.
Same here. The US created a market in the end of the WWII. NATO countries still have to spend a minimum (%) of their GDP yearly to be in the NATO. So the price of armament had to be controlled. The US sold armament to Axis/Allies devastated powers, The Cold War was fight in Asian and Africa* and customers were everywhere. Even helped the UK and France in creating some nukes, making them a shield vs the USSR. Ofc the British and French like to drink, talk and share and a nice old fellow named Ben-Gurión took one or two. But that is another tale.
You are more focused about US economy, witch being an American i understand why. I am more concerned about the World Economy. And i am even more concerned about the way they are going. You missed my WWII argument, witch i will now explain.
WWII was a horrible war that millions died, carpet bombing was a fashion statment, Armies were "on" anfetamines, human avalanches as a tactic existed, and much much more depraved behaviors.
I too believe we are passing on one of those moments. A moment of excess, of unsupported growth. A moment of Crisis.
Main Entry:
cri·sis Listen to the pronunciation of crisis
Pronunciation:
\ˈkrī-səs\
Function:
noun
Inflected Form(s):
plural cri·ses Listen to the pronunciation of crises \ˈkrī-ˌsēz\
Etymology:
Middle English, from Latin, from Greek krisis, literally, decision, from krinein to decide — more at certain
Date:
15th century
1 a: the turning point for better or worse in an acute disease or fever b: a paroxysmal attack of pain, distress, or disordered function c: an emotionally significant event or radical change of status in a person's life <a midlife crisis>
2 : the decisive moment (as in a literary plot)
3 a: an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending ; especially : one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome <a financial crisis> b: a situation that has reached a critical phase <the environmental crisis>
Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary :
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crisis
I believe, like in WWII were are in a decisive turning point. I see it as a good thing. Or a good possibility.
Peopel will suffer ? Hell yes. To each head its own sentence mate. It always been, always will be.
*In relation of Africa, although the US nor the USSR never intervened directly, was a bit like the Spanish Civil war before the WWII. This is something i know per personal experience because half my family lived there during the colonization/war/independence/civil wars periods. Things are still raging in Africa. But thats another tale.
Bill Clinton might not been the best president ever, but during his presidency the most mediatic thing that happened was the red lips of Monica.
During his presidency the world passed a nice time. Only freaking idiot Arafat chickened out in the last minute.
Although Credit is simple by definition, what he generates is not obvious. Applied to the consumer markets it will shorten the buying cycle or even leap one cycle. That is only a small part of the equation, witch, applied to consumer goods, like electronics, if it fails (Ex: credit crunch, unpaid loans) will lead to a normality, or even a small recession in sales due to the normalization of the buying cycles on the diferent goods.
Just that. No more, no less.
Of course it was a systemic failure. Mr Alan knows, like every other economist, that economy fluctuates. It will ever have ups and downs periods. EVERY TIME. What Mr Alan did in 2004 was rigg the show. This crisis sould have hitted much softer in 2004. The housing bubble was already known at that time. The sub-prime was indeed created. Not directly by Mr Alan, but he layed the foundations and "possibly" had a chance or too to remove the watchdogs.
This is correct. I agree whole heartdly.
India is much diferent than Japan. In almost every point ! For the chip market, they are a emerging market like Russia was. The big probblem in India is a social one. But that is going off-topic.
There are many countries in the middles east doing fine. Although i don't consider them prime markets, they have high potential because of Oil and/or Tourism.
I agree, but no marktet that suffers a 80% down in sales in 3 months will survive much long. That was one of my points.
Massification is a great way to produce cheap goods, and both markets heavly massifed. The bummer is you need to produce a (big) minimum to break even. That was the point. Although a wafer or a production line are extremely expensive, mass production make them residual costs.
I thing this crisis will send many mass producted products for a spin. Or half-spin to be more acurate. People are already suffering here. It is right here. Many bussiness, to reach efficiency went mass-production status. We have rollbacks, because not all goods/services can be produced that way. Many proximity bussiness just busted because of this.
And companies and people are suffering because of this. They went mass-production rellying on a credit supported buying cycle. And proximity services/goods will return to his natural place, were they are efficient in a "normal" environment. Not in a rigged one.
You should had applied your logic "chippery=/=Cars" here. Computers last much less than cars, after 5 years parts are scarce (at least some of them), and i will send you a message cause there are things i can't spat on a forum.
On one word, don't worry much about used PCs.
NOES !! If we not consume china will die !!!
Well, don't spread panic here. A 4% unemployement rate in china. Of course this percentage only accounts people in the cities. But hey are doing fine. The Chinese Communist Party (witch have little of comunist and much a less a party) is already convincing people to consume. There are suveral ways to convince. One way is to dump, but there are several more ways. Go there and see for your self.
If you don't believe that, you should head there and check it out fof youself. Warner Bros and Microsft already lowered "ridiculously" the price of their goods because they know 1,330,044,605 is alot of people.
And all economies pass a three fase evolution ! Agricultural, Industrial and Services ! China already passed the other two, it is more than ready to go to the third and consume ! Even, if 40% chinese are below the poverty line, and have a somewhat strong middle class, between middle and higher classes they are still more people than the EU and USA together !!!
I mean we Europeans are a bit more proteccionist than you American fellows.
You are under estimate emerging economies. And about social classes in China, the Comunist Party "invented" the motto:
"One country, two systems"
Again, don't spread panic.
True dat!
Don't worry. I think the discussion never headed there.
One little secret. When talking globally, don't talk about money, talk about wealth. Wealth generation, wealth income, ad nauseaum.
America IS a very important market. But do not mistaken yourself, after this last financial scandal, together with a weak dollar, and with "wealth" being centered elsewhere, America will suffer much more than other countries.
Like everything, like this credit fueled crisis for example, people overshot prediction and overinvested in bad models and faraonic ideas. I honestly believe that this premature retracting by several "big" corporations will leave just a bit more than niche markets. Space that will be filled, one way or another.
I agree partially. Corparations went multi-national a long time. Their IP is not tied to a nationality. Ask Anand Lal Shimpi and i think he might be a better teacher than me on this. By his example i mean, that IP like the use of biologic/chimical weapons, ignore political borders.
Your over estimating the US in this case. Although i partially agree.
I might have used a bad word. But Big Industry is heavly financed here to stay HERE. From PCs to Autos to Food. If china blew off, or if imports were cutted i coudl make a All european PC, drive a "almost" all european car, and so , so on.
Even the European Steel is getting cheaper.
I **** up here. I should have been more detailed. Soz.
I don't have information detailed at this point, but if so, i would advice you to emigrate to another country.Not because i don't think you won't get along, but because your children might have a heavy debt on their heads (or a time bomb) . I hope your actual president has alot more brains than balls. He will need them, the brains i mean. Or things might get pretty grim.
I like to read, take conclusions and then express those conclusions. I read/discuss pretty much and i many times can't post links of some information. Just conclusions.
Regardless of who makes the predictions, like we say alot in this forum, take a prediction with a grain (or some) of salt.
When i said the earlier post that predictions are made of PhAIL, everyone knows that. Or should.
You just gotta know how to read them, and no i wont discuss this point (the reading of forecasts) on a public forum.
And it would be terribly OT.
Yes and no.
What determines if a bank is comercial one, is the way they generate wealth from the money people deposit.
Comercial banks ARE fine. Some losses here and there, but their core bussiness remain untouched. That is one of the reasons i believe Wall Street (if not properly reformed) is going the way of the dodo, while Main Street will get stronger.
Only in the last 2 decades money was behing exclusivly to serve himself. That is not supporting the "real" economy and it is neither supported it self. Thus i called it "fake" money.
Fact: Bailout. Quimonda was bailed out by a Portuguese Comercial bank and the portuguese Government. If AMD falls don't you think the US or Germany Governments would have a word on it ? Quimonda is not portuguese by default. Or it wasn't.
Again, in the US, i hope this time you have somebody competent.
If the this "crisis" is the beast it is, or as i have outlined it, they will suffer, but will go on with it. I expect WWII factor here. It is a great industries that reinvents it self very fast. That companies fall and rise fast. The industry will be fine.
As for AMD, it is in a market, that there is only 2 players (x86) .It wont fall and it will be silly to think it will fall.
enjoy 
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