Definitely the Kinect.
The Move...come freakin on. It's a glorified Wii remote...even if it has better graphics, is more precise, etc, it is STILL A Wii CLONE. To think anything else is naive. And there's the problem...the motion sensor remotes suck. FPS suck hard core because moving while aiming is difficult. The Move will have Wii type games.
The Kinect, on the other hand, is actually a step forward. Although it is limited in the games, it doesn't require a remote. It also has enough potential to be amazing. It is also cheaper than the Move if you want 2 people to use it, even more cheaper if you want more. Yes, it involves more moving....which is what made the Wii popular! If you don't want to move much then why in the hell do you want a motion remote? So you just sit there lazily in a chair and kinda move your arms around?
Both the Kinect and the Move are not for hard core gamers. They are for the casual/party crowed. I think you will have a hard time convincing anyone who owns a Wii to get a PS3 and the Move. And when it comes down to it, a new customer will get a Wii more than the PS3/Move because of cost and because the Wii is a long established system with a myriad of games. Or they might get a 360/Kinect combo. The point of the motion crap was that it got people together. I think the Kinect has a much better chance of that than the Move.
The Move is about 5 years too late. It's as if Sony said: "You have been enjoying the Wii for 5 years, here's our marginally better copy of it without all the great Nintendo party-type games!!!!" Just look at some of their hyped games: Brunswick Pro Bowling, EyePet, The Shoot, Sorcery, Heroes On The Move, Start The Party!. Wow....rehashes of Wii games for the most part. I would never replace a regular PS3 remote with the Move, and I would like to see the people use the Move remote get there rear ends handed to them in online games.
Oh, I don't own any of the systems although I have played all extensively. I hold no preference to any of them.