News Thanks to Miners and Scalpers, eBay Pricing for Ampere, RDNA2 GPUs Continue to Rise

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I think you are taking what I said too literally. There have been articles published recently suggesting bitcoin mining uses more power than many small countries.
I took your words by their actual meaning, sure. That's how language works. Certainly mining consumes a great deal of power. However, when I pointed out that gaming uses as much or more, you attempted to deny that with a figure smaller than the actual value by a factor of a million or so.

That is the story they tell us, yes. But is it true? What was the story with the 1000 series cards? I am starting to think more and more that both companies are doing this on purpose, to increase revenue and lifecycle of their products.
Tinfoil on a bit tight today?
 
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Ha!
I actually benefited from the skyrocketing prices of older GPUs. I took advantage of a pricing mistake on Amazon 'Renewed' and got a like-new Titan Xp for $600 shipped. With the 90-day no-questions-asked return policy for 'Renewed,' it was a no-risk all-reward buy. Of course, I only pulled the trigger once I realized how much I could potentially get for my Vega 64. I was able to sell my Vega 64 and, even with shipping costs and eBay's cut, I'm only down $150 for a 30-60% GPU performance increase AND 50% more VRAM.
 
Sure, the math can work in your favor when you are just making up random numbers out of thin air.
None of the numbers I used were "random", nor anything approaching that. Unsurprisingly, you're missing the entire point of my off-the-cuff analysis. Of course none of the figures were extremely precise: some were too low, some were high, and some may be as far off as a factor of 2 or 3. But the resultant estimate is certainly correct to within an order of magnitude, and it clearly demonstrates that the statement that worldwide gaming uses "a few dozen tons" of coal is absolute nonsense.

There might be over 2 billion "gamers" worldwide, but a majority of them are doing their gaming on mobile devices.
According to Statista, the figure for 2019 was almost exactly half. However, as of today, and counting mobile, there are something like 2.6 billion users (a higher figure than I used) and there additionally is a significant amount of overlap in the categories. A gamer who spends 50% of his time on mobile may still be gaming on other platforms as well.

The number of consoles being sold each generation...only add up to around 150 million units in total.
Per console. Add up all the iterations of the various consoles on the market and, even only counting older generations partially, due to their lower power consumption and greater dropout rate, you still reach a figure of over half a billion.

The number of those gaming regularly on relatively high-powered gaming PCs is harder to ascertain with any degree of accuracy, but I think it's safe to say that those numbers are grossly overestimated.
Why do you believe it's "safe to say" your estimate is more reliable than the experts?

A system might be drawing more power while playing a demanding game, but that's typically only for a small portion of any given day.
Of course, which is why my estimate used the number of hours spent gaming each week.
 
I took your words by their actual meaning, sure. That's how language works. Certainly mining consumes a great deal of power. However, when I pointed out that gaming uses as much or more, you attempted to deny that with a figure smaller than the actual value by a factor of a million or so.
So you can basically justify any amount of power usage for any purpose as long as there is something that uses more?
 
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I thought crypto currenecies were supposed to be moving beyond Environment-killing, Energy-wasting 'Proof-of-Work' mining???
The talk has been happening for years, but there aren't many good options. Proof of Trust systems essentially devolve into ordinary currency, consensus systems have too many holes, and Proof of Capacity just pushes the problem back one step. Proof of Stake probably has the best chance of succeeding, but its essential plutocratic nature doesn't appeal to many crypto-adopters.

So you can basically justify any amount of power usage for any purpose as long as there is something that uses more?
Now you're just being silly. You implied mining was unethical because it was a pointless activity that wasted a great deal of energy. I pointed out that gaming is just as pointless and energy-wasting as mining. Either both activities are ethical, or both are not. Why not simply admit the truth, and move on?
 
I said it once, I'll say it again,

Both AMD and NVIDIA need to create mining specific skus and only list them on their website via direct sales. Just like pro tier quadro and fire cards these cards will only allow common mining ops with the appropriate firmware and driver's designed to work with the sku.

The gaming cards chips should have a burnable fuse that prevents them from being used for mining.
 
400 PH/s equates to 0.4 EH/s. Meaning Ethereum is using 0.26% of the computing power as is Bitcoin. It's not consuming 100% of Ampere production capacity; it and all other mining combined might be consuming half. Also, Ethereum value is up 450% over the period you mention, and by your figures, the hash rate is already up 210%. Meaning it's not far away from balancing out that rise. Obviously we could continue to see similar rises in future value, but barring that unlikely event, the demand for new hash capacity is going to return to normal in the next 3-4 months.
Hashing algorithms are very different. They’re basically cryptographic functions, and 1MH/s of DaggerHashimoto (what Ethereum uses) is roughly equal to 100MH/s of SHA256. Plus it requires more RAM and some other factors. Because Bitcoin is almost purely run on ASICs now, that also factors into the hash rate. It would be moderately interesting to try and compare the power use of the Ethereum network to the Bitcoin network to see how much each uses, but also very difficult because there are lots of different types of hardware used on each network.

If we assume perhaps 5TH/s per 1000W on BTC (using ASICs), vs perhaps 200MH/s per 1000W on ETH (using relatively common GPUs), what does that work out to in power? I’m not at my PC so I’ll have to think about it a bit more and check the numbers later, but based on those estimates BTC hash rates would be about 25,000 times higher for equivalent power.
 
I pointed out that gaming is just as pointless and energy-wasting as mining. Either both activities are ethical, or both are not.
Gaming has the intrinsic value of whatever entertainment you get out of it. Mining is just high-stakes gambling that may implode at any time for any number of reasons such as governments banning crypto exchanges.

The gaming cards chips should have a burnable fuse that prevents them from being used for mining.
That isn't possible since hashers are just another shader as far as the GPU is concerned. Crippling the GPU in a way that makes it unsuitable for GPU-mining would likely destroy shader performance for games too. If game shaders can be recompiled to work around mining-specific crippling, then it is almost certain that mining shaders could be re-written to bypass it too.
 
Gaming has the intrinsic value of whatever entertainment you get out of it. Mining is just high-stakes gambling that may implode at any time for any number of reasons such as governments banning crypto exchanges.


That isn't possible since hashers are just another shader as far as the GPU is concerned. Crippling the GPU in a way that makes it unsuitable for GPU-mining would likely destroy shader performance for games too. If game shaders can be recompiled to work around mining-specific crippling, then it is almost certain that mining shaders could be re-written to bypass it too.

Mining Alogrithms use very specific sequence of instructions like viruses. You look at these sequences and other tell tale traits of mining like non standard voltages and clocks. Names of executables in memory. IP access and specific packet header information to mining ops. Constantly running the gpu at full tilt while the cpu usage is low. All clues to mining. Circumventing them all will be difficult.

And the already do it on pro level cards.

Now tell me why it isn't possible?

It really is a win win. Amd and nvidia make fat profits on mining gpu's directly. They save face in the gaming community because cards only usable for gaming won't go crazy high on price.
 
Its not this, its not that, blah blah.
We have at least one person stating this is "intentional" from the manufacturers, but with no reason why they would do that.

Yet, here we are.
Little or nothing available at actual retail price, or from the typical retail outlets.

I'm sure some of you genuises will espouse the real reason. But I haven't seen it yet.

It's simple why manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD would do this. Development of the next generation GPU costs a lot of money. That money needs to be recuperated. What better way to recuperate that money than by creating a perceived supply issue, causing prices for their products to rise? At the same time they benefit from an extended timeline on their current generation, since this scarcity of video cards for pc gaming out there adds so far at least 6 months to the timeline before they have to release the next cycle. To top it off it sends their stock prices upwards. increasing their company value. There's not enough in circulation right now for the new generation to gain any significant market share in the gaming market. This exact same thing happened with the 2000 series, and with the 1000 series before.

Can I prove any of this? No. But it sure begins to look more and more like this is done with a purpose, not just some random factors that they could not foresee. There's a story on here right now about ARM, having produced 6.7 Billion chips in Q4 of 2020 based on ARM. That's more than 1 chip per person living on earth, in 3 months time. Sure, it's not all complex chips like a GPU. but at the same time it does not sound to me like there's an issue with the supply chain for producing chips, or with production capacity, or with raw materials. At that rate just ARM alone accounts for roughly 28 billion chips per year. That's without Samsung, Nvidia or AMD, and the rest.

I don't buy this supply issue or capacity shortage.
 
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It's simple why manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD would do this. Development of the next generation GPU costs a lot of money. That money needs to be recuperated. What better way to recuperate that money than by creating a perceived supply issue, causing prices for their products to rise? At the same time they benefit from an extended timeline on their current generation, since this scarcity of video cards for pc gaming out there adds so far at least 6 months to the timeline before they have to release the next cycle. To top it off it sends their stock prices upwards. increasing their company value. There's not enough in circulation right now for the new generation to gain any significant market share in the gaming market. This exact same thing happened with the 2000 series, and with the 1000 series before.

Can I prove any of this? No. But it sure begins to look more and more like this is done with a purpose, not just some random factors that they could not foresee. There's a story on here right now about TSMC, having produced 6.7 Billion chips in Q4 of 2020. That's more than 1 chip per person living on earth, in 3 months time. Sure, it's not a complex chip like a GPU. but at the same time it does not sound to me like there's an issue with the supply chain for producing chips, or with production capacity. At that rate just TSMC alone can make roughly 28 billion chips per year. That's without Samsung and the rest.

I don't buy this supply issue or capacity shortage.
"creating a perceived supply issue, causing prices for their products to rise"

When these high demand GPS and consoles were sold, what was the price? Basically, MSRP.
The scalper community is marking up. And FOMO gamers are paying that.

AMD and Nvidia get none of that.


So lets say that the MSRP was raised from $500 to $700, just before release.
This same group of FOMO would have bitched long and loud.

And scalper bots would still have bought up most of the supply.


What I'm seeing in a LOT of these comments is:
"They should prioritize our gaming over all other uses"
and
"In a perfect ECON world, it works like this"

Code to prevent mining, more high end GPU production, magical antibot webstores, blah blah...

I am neither gamer nor miner.
 
Circumventing them all will be difficult.
Circumventing all of those you listed is trivial:
1- there is more than one way to express a sequence of instructions, blocking one specific sequence would merely prompt miners to re-factor code to get around it. It will be an unwinnable cat-and-mouse game for GPU manufacturers.
2- monitoring voltages is pointless when miners are already modding firmware, they could just mod firmware to report typical clocks and voltages too.
3- constant load on GPU but not on CPU can easily be taken care of by firing a couple of CPU-based threads.
4- tracking GPU usage by executable can easily be bypassed by running the code in a randomly generated/renamed intermediate executable.
5- tracking IPs processes connects to is kind of pointless in a p2p network and even if drivers tracked those, it could be easily defeated by using either a firewall or proxy. Also, I bet many people would be nervous if their GPU's manufacturer started disabling the GPU based on what IPs they connect to, which could be a massive breach of privacy liability for GPU manufacturers.
 
The talk has been happening for years, but there aren't many good options. Proof of Trust systems essentially devolve into ordinary currency, consensus systems have too many holes, and Proof of Capacity just pushes the problem back one step. Proof of Stake probably has the best chance of succeeding, but its essential plutocratic nature doesn't appeal to many crypto-adopters.

Now you're just being silly. You implied mining was unethical because it was a pointless activity that wasted a great deal of energy. I pointed out that gaming is just as pointless and energy-wasting as mining. Either both activities are ethical, or both are not. Why not simply admit the truth, and move on?
I seriously doubt there are a billion (or more) gaming devices in use worldwide that include a GPU that consumes more than 100W.
 
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Some people are allergic to facts, I know. But forced exposure can mitigate the symptoms.
No amount of forced exposure or your insistence can mitigate whatever... or make me like this ****!

I never did, I still don't and I never will like crypto-currencies, trading /speculating and mining them and everything related to this. Just like I don't like some other things for dozens of years and the exposure to them did not make me like them over the years... you cant force "like" or "love", it's basic knowledge.

I more convinced that besides, Covid related issues, tariffs, scalpers and miners, nvidia and AMD have their own mining farms now and don't sell a (big?) portion of their GPUs at all, they just mine on them, adding to the problem... that's how profitable it is now. I would not be surprised at all if this were true...
 
...but based on those estimates BTC hash rates would be about 25,000 times higher for equivalent power.
I'd be interested in hard figures. The numbers I recall (admittedly a bit old) were FPGA energy efficiency maxed out at about 10X, and ASIC about 1000X.

Gaming has the intrinsic value of whatever entertainment you get out of it. Mining is just high-stakes gambling
This is simply rationalization to justify your likes and dislikes. I vastly prefer gaming to mining myself, but honesty and simple logic compels me to admit that one is no more valuable than the other, and that there is no "gambling" to a business that with a guaranteed net profit.

No amount of forced exposure or your insistence can ... make me like this ****! I never did, I still don't and I never will like crypto-currencies, trading /speculating and mining them...
I'm not asking you to like them. I'm trying to get you to accept a few realities, such as the fact that, long-term, mining (and other GPU uses) are giving you more powerful cards at a much lower price.
 
What better way to recuperate that money than by creating a perceived supply issue, causing prices for their products to rise? At the same time they benefit from an extended timeline on their current generation, since this scarcity of video cards for pc gaming out there adds so far at least 6 months to the timeline before they have to release the next cycle....Can I prove any of this? No. But it sure begins to look more and more like this is done with a purpose...
A few facts interfere with this tinfoil-hat analysis. Firstly, NVidia doesn't need to manufacture excuses to set higher prices. They own the product; they can freely charge whatever they wish, be it $500 or $500,000. Basic economics, though, dictates that at some point a higher price yields lower revenue, by depressing total sales volume. NVidia (and all manufacturers) attempt to find this point, and price accordingly. Now and always.

Further, manufacturers are never obligated to release new products on a set schedule. They do so when it benefits them, which usually means when it's necessary to keep them ahead or abreast of their competitors.

Third and finally -- do you believe the entire Covid pandemic and everyone affected by it is also part of the conspiracy? It's affected supply and demand across all sectors of the economy. Air ticket and hotel prices are less than 1/5 their normal cost in many markets. Do you think those industries are conspiring to lower their prices and decimate their own profits? And, more relevantly, if people are staying home, rather than flying and booking hotel rooms, what at-home activity might they spend their time upon, and what might they purchase to aid that activity? 🤔
 
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Circumventing all of those you listed is trivial:
1- there is more than one way to express a sequence of instructions, blocking one specific sequence would merely prompt miners to re-factor code to get around it. It will be an unwinnable cat-and-mouse game for GPU manufacturers.
2- monitoring voltages is pointless when miners are already modding firmware, they could just mod firmware to report typical clocks and voltages too.
3- constant load on GPU but not on CPU can easily be taken care of by firing a couple of CPU-based threads.
4- tracking GPU usage by executable can easily be bypassed by running the code in a randomly generated/renamed intermediate executable.
5- tracking IPs processes connects to is kind of pointless in a p2p network and even if drivers tracked those, it could be easily defeated by using either a firewall or proxy. Also, I bet many people would be nervous if their GPU's manufacturer started disabling the GPU based on what IPs they connect to, which could be a massive breach of privacy liability for GPU manufacturers.

1. Miners rewriting code would be dependent upon

À) the people who do understand mining and coding rewriting the code then distributing it.
B) during this time the card is worthless. It would likely be at least 4 days to rewrite and recompile. To redistribute even a bigger headache. Then binaries have to be certified. F@H rejected a ton of results because people tried to rewrite binaries to use gpu's early on. Because they were not vetted as official releases and thus subject to scrutiny and error.

2. At certain high security places certain functions like a boot rom loaders and low level functions cannot be bypassed by a reflash. This is one of the things critical to satellite security.

3. This is valid. But firing up a cpu lowers efficiency.

4. Again same thing as virus signature. These types of morphological algorithms have certain key sequences which are highly unusual.

5. You seem to think the outgoing dns request and resulting it's to places like coinbase changes. They don't.

Satellites have implemented some of these techniques for years and they are constant sources for attacks by foreign entities. I am a bit of an experienced expert on this because I wrote satellite firmware for a while.

Again. It's really in AMDs and NVIDIA's interest. They can sell the miners boards for $1500 or more. The miners get a guaranteed warranty.

Also some coins still increase the complexity of the hash based on the active mines. This helps moderate that to demand in a controllable fashion. If mining complexity goes up it's a sign there's more miners. This will cause demand to outstrip supply. Amd and nvidia since they sell the only mining boards can then thrust prices upwards creating a natural balance.

It's actually a win win. If you think about it even if just 15% of wafer supply went to gamers that is more than we likely have.
 
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1. Miners rewriting code would be dependent upon

À) the people who do understand mining and coding rewriting the code then distributing it.
The more important thing to consider is how much faster miners can adapt to GPU manufacturers' attempts to stop them than GPU manufacturers can keep up with them. Miners can put out new code in a matter of hours at very little cost, new driver and firmware releases for GPUs on the other hand have to go through an extensive QA process costing millions of dollars over multiple weeks. The cost to GPU manufacturers is not worth the likely NEGATIVE benefit they get from it - greatly increased effort that is practically guaranteed to cause more issues later.
 
The more important thing to consider is how much faster miners can adapt to GPU manufacturers' attempts to stop them than GPU manufacturers can keep up with them. Miners can put out new code in a matter of hours at very little cost, new driver and firmware releases for GPUs on the other hand have to go through an extensive QA process costing millions of dollars over multiple weeks. The cost to GPU manufacturers is not worth the likely NEGATIVE benefit they get from it - greatly increased effort that is practically guaranteed to cause more issues later.

Miners can also break their code by being that brash. This stuff needs to be vetted carefully.

That said again, some of these techniques have kept satellites safe for decades from hack and bypass techniques. If the military has to create specialized weapons to destroy satellites, you know they are hard as fhsjfru to hack.

Also like 0 day viruses getting new virus defs out is only matter of days.
 
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"Thanks to Miners and Scalpers, eBay Pricing for Ampere, RDNA2 GPUs Continue to Rise"

--> and at the same time we have the following article:
https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/best-picks/best-mining-gpus-benchmarked-and-ranked

--> really...!!!

I would like to think that the vast majority of tom's readers are not miners, and would be feeling a bit concerned at any act that aids miners and thus further reduces product availability.

Perhaps a fresh look at the difference between 'reporting' and 'supporting' might be in order...??
 
Miners can also break their code by being that brash. This stuff needs to be vetted carefully.
The whole point of block chain is that there is no central authority doing any sort of vetting. You are free to implement the mining algorithm any way you want, the only vetting you get is peers checking your proof-of-work when you attempt to publish it to confirm its validity.
 

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