AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

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jdwii

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I find a lot of fallacious arguments in that article
 

jdwii

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Name certain cases i can name plenty where he was wrong and yet the mods let him continue to put others down, still waiting on his whole A10 comparable to an I5 thing in CPU benchmarks on average based on the majority, not a selective few
 

colinp

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Semiaccurate, natch.
 

jed

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I was about to inform him that you have been one of the strongest voices for AMD in this thread,
so for him to make that statement he didn't start read this thread from the beginning.
 

juanrga

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amd-arm-x86-tam.jpg


The chart above shows the TAM (Total Addressable Market) for processors across embedded, mobile, PC, console, and server segments by architecture. The gray bars in the middle of the chart lump together Power, Sparc, MIPS, various mainframe, and other proprietary chips, this is falling. The orange bars show the drop of the x86 market, while the purple bars, representing ARM chips, show the exponential rise of this architecture.

By about 2018 ARM chips will represent about a 50% of AMD TAM, the other 50% is x86. AMD new ambidextrous strategy is an adaptation to this market situation. If we extrapolate the chart beyond 2018 we can see ARM winning over x86; this is in the "long run", it is not happening tomorrow.
 


Well, if you or your boss are thinking about using a Tablet ARM CPU/SoC to run a server farm, well... You guys need to revisit your ideas.

Don't mix the topics, since they're very different.

Windows RT and software "portability" is one topic on its own, and how the ARMv7 and ARMv8 with their consequent CPU uAarchs are able to handle themselves against Intel and AMD in the vertical markets is another topic.

In news that could be related to this thread (well, not really, haha), new laws for trade "fairness" were ruled a couple of years ago (I found about this through our mandatory training in such topics, here at the company, lol). They're more client (or end user) focused more than Company interaction, but they're a good read if you guys want to take a look at it: Dodd-Frank Law

Cheers!
 

since amd will be making multiple cpus with a57 and multiple skus of each before moving on to k12 after project skybridge, arm v8 and a57 may be related as long as the amd context is correctly applied. these include hierofalcon, seattle, whatever comes next. i wanna know if amd overhauled the bd/jag iommu for project skybridge. k12 is long way out, seattle is just a bunch of a57 cores slapped together with massive cache and low-ish clockrate (assuming from the seattle server board's heatsink). project skybridge seems interesting. the less-than-subtle jab at intel also helps...
 

juanrga

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The PS4 architect tells the anecdote that during the hardware development phase one prominent boss at Sony shared his disagreement by the choice of x86 architecture, because this boss claimed that x86 was an inadequate architecture for gaming. I suppose that one can find ignorant bosses everywhere.

I mentioned before that Microsoft has participated in the development of the new SBSA (Server Base System Architecture) used in AMD Seattle SoC. It seems this important point was ignored.

Those the words of Microsoft representative about SBSA:

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9245854/Microsoft_joins_ARM_server_effort

We can confirm Microsoft participates in an industry forum driven by ARM around the Server Base System Architecture, as a part of our continuous work with industry partners to deliver solutions our customers want

Some rumors say Microsoft has already ported Windows server to ARM and engineers are playing with it behind the doors.
 


The only comparison to Haswell I see in that article is to the 192 micro-ops that both Haswell and Apples Cyclone have and the same branch mispredict. Other than that it is more of a comparison to Swift. I don't think Anand is dumb enough to come out saying that Apples first 64bit self(somewhat) designed ARM based CPU is superior to a x86 CPU.

And no one has said anything about comparing Haswell to ARM. I have already said Haswell is a much more complex chip with superior IPC and will eat it alive. That is expected as ARM has never been about the super complexity that x86 has achieved and which is why they are able to keep that nice and low TDP. That is also why Intel took a Pentium P56C core and stripped it down to very basic and then called it Atom trying to push a 2w TDP.

Once ARM starts to throw in that same level of complexity as x86 to achieve the same performance on all levels, that's when the ARM TDP advantage will go away. But as long as it stays more simplified to keep a lower TDP it will never overtake x86 performance.



Seems like AMD is banking a lot on ARM becoming more dominant.

I like the "substantial share of the x86 CPU market" bit. If Rory has his way, they wont compete with Intel the same way so they will never look to design superior x86 CPUs. How do they plan to take more x86 market share, or substantial, if they do not ever design a superior uArch?



And how many game companies will willingly spend the time and money to port the old games over? Except for VALVe, I don't see the other companies doing it. Oh I know what they will do, they will charge you $5-$20 bucks on some market and make it like a retro game. Sort of like how you can buy, again, old Xbox or PS2 games on their respective markets to play.



I like the part talking about the more secure free alternatives. I hope they realize that the more popular those free alternatives get the more unsecure they become. Look at Apple. Mac OSX has had a big jump in viruses. Android, a Linux based OS, has multiple viruses now and multiple anti-virus applications. It is the nature of the beast. If Microsoft becomes smaller it will just become more secure as the hackers and virus makers will move on to the bigger target.

Let me ask you. Is t more profitable for the Cryptolocker virus to attack Mac OSX, Linux or Windows?



Mainly because NVidia was not able to get a x86 license. Do you remember the debacle when Intel went from FSB to IMC? NVidia didn't have a license that covered anything beyond Intels FSB design for chipsets. So NVidia lost their ability to make chipsets. Thank God as their chipsets were just bad.

After that I am sure NVidia wanted to branch out and would have killed for a x86 license. I am sure they still would.

 


Have some links to share about that? I could ask the tech guys in our server division, but if they're under NDA, I really doubt they'll tell me anything, lol.



I agree with you there, but nVidia has been very stupid about some key things when dealing with Intel. I remember reading that Mr. Huang, when there was talk about a possible Intel buy-out/merger with nVidia, they were very arrogant. I'm still wondering if all that was true or not, but I've always been under the impression that nVidia is sitting on their own little island because they, as an organization, are very stubborn and proud, but in a bad way.

Oh well, this doesn't get more than just old ladies talk (and I have my tea, next to me, haha), but it is interesting to see how nVidia is more and more being left behind. I do believe they'll have to go all out with Maxwell's successor. I believe that thing will be able to be something like an APU, but using ARM ISAs, right?

--
@de5_Roy: well, as subtle of a jab as it was, I do believe we'll get even better products, right? haha

Cheers!
 


NVidia always has been like that. Always think they are the best but ATI always had a way to shut them down. AMD, not as much but has been decent at it.
 

anxiousinfusion

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Is there a reason they haven't approached VIA?
 

bmacsys

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Of course they have a port of Windows Server running on ARM. Just like Apple had OSX running on x86 since day one in the skunk works. These are multi-billion dollar corporations not somebody in his garage. They have to be ready for any eventuality.
 
the collective obsession over juanrga is off-topic.

i wanted to discuss about arm and x86 cores being swappable on the same platform. from the s/a articles, it looks like the biggest obstacle is memory access i.e. how an x86 core and arm v8 core would access memory. do they mean cache access or system memory? i assumed both arm and x86 cores in project skybridge will come with their own L2 caches and they will need some kind of hardware virtualization to make the socket compatibility real and software virtualization to make o.s. compatibility real. anyone know how that is possible? is it possible without virtualization? i mean, an always-on, real time hardware and software virtualization seem expensive in terms of power use.
another issue is with the igpu. not the performance, the configuration. current beema soc has 128 radeon cores and 4 a.c.e. imo, amd will need much more if they want to have some relevance in the entrly level market in the future. they'll need at least triple the shader count and 8 a.c.e. (stripped down spectre igpu, to be close) and improved internal cache system for full h.s.a. support.
i don't expect (but will be happy to see) price-range-defying performance from project skybridge since the target usages don't seem performance-hungry. at all.
 

juanrga

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There are more comparisons to Intel big core architecture in the article, like this:



It is worth mentioning that Piledriver is only a 4-wide architecture.



Read above Anand quote again. Cyclone is already close to Haswell in architectural complexity and IPC. It is "desktop class".



ARM efficiency advantage remains at higher TDPs by reasons explained before. Note: Nvidia blog linked before mentions some reasons why ARM is more efficient than x86 and Keller mentioned the efficiency advantage of ARM over x86 during last conference.



I also like that part, because he is simply repeating that everyone knows: "linux is much more secure than windows"

From Linux The Clear Choice For Security:

Recently, the United Kingdom's Communications-Electronics Security Group (CESG) ran a series of tests to find out which operating system would be the most secure platform for the UK government.

[...]

The goal was to see which platform would pass most of the 12 tests. The winner, [linux], was far ahead of both Windows 8 and Mac OS X.

Your question is easy to answer. Linux has much more marketshare than windows (check tomshardware article), a priori attacking the more popular system is better. However, linux is very secure, it is much more easy for hackers to attack something as insecure and vulnerable as Windows. Windows is a much more lucrative target because it is easier to break and get benefits.



Licensing is another aspect where ARM is superior to x86. However, the Nvidia blog focus was on the technical merits of ARM.
 

juanrga

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No. Sorry.
 

juanrga

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After Anand analysis showed that Cyclone architecture is "desktop class" and can compete with big Intel cores, an Intel fan did run a comparison between cyclone core and sandy bridge core and got that both are comparable on IPC terms.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=35511711&postcount=1

The results are unsurprising because Cyclone is already ahead of Piledriver:

Cyclone IPC > A57 IPC
A57 IPC > Jaguar IPC
Jaguar IPC > Piledriver IPC

 

8350rocks

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I have it on VERY good authority that a new HEDT platform is in the works...my latest information says it will be a little way out, but will offer dCPU and APU options...

Unfortunately, I cannot share more than that...be PATIENT.

(Just FYI for those who would want to know: ARM is not expected to take a significant portion of desktop marketshare...)
 

blackkstar

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ARM will win in HPC and Servers. It won't unseat x86 desktop and laptops. ARM will win only in places where it's transparent to the user and they have no idea what chip they are running. Meaning situations like Android and iOS where there is an ecosystem of applications to satisfy end users to the point where they can not worry about not having their Windows or x86 applications. Or in situations like a web server where no one cares what CPU is serving them a web page or their files.

You will notice that some people have fallen for the logical fallacy of seeing AMD talk about ARM and x86, AMD saying ARM will win, and then assuming that AMD is only talking about the fight between x86 and ARM and that ARM will unseat x86.

As you can see from the AMD slide referencing projected market shares, ARM is planning on taking a massive chunk away from the "other" category and not the x86 one.

Consumer ARM device sales also depend heavily on a much faster upgrade cycle than a typical x86 product. Most people keep their laptops and desktops until they are too slow. Phones get replaced much more often because new phones have traditionally offer a better user experience that came at a premium price.

http://www.wired.com/2014/05/cheap-smartphones

That is about to change. You are about to see situations where people can buy really cheap phones that work just as well as higher end ones while being able to use those phones for much longer.

I question you all to think back to the Android 2.0 days and such and how big the next hardware release was for your phone. It was huge. It changed the user experience and made things a lot smoother.

Now, we are reaching the point with *CONSUMER* ARM where we are having to resort to benchmarks to prove a point that something is better because it's not so blatantly better than people will upgrade without thinking about.

The rapidly growing consumer ARM market is about to come crashing down to x86 levels and the boom is about to end. People thinking that ARM will continue this growth in the *CONSUMER* space at the cost of x86 market share are very confused as to what is actually happening.

But back to AMD's projected x86 market share numbers. You'll see that after ARM gets done ravaging the other section, it levels off. The graph is awfully deceitful because it starts at 2005. But if you look at what AMD sees happening to x86 marketshare between 2013 and 2018, it's barely going anywhere. In fact, ARM isn't going anywhere either. Also, the ARM and x86 graphs are both taking up roughly the same amount of space. Meaning that between ARm and x86 growth levelling off and AMD projecting ARM and x86 to level off to nearly perfectly split market share, tells me that AMD is not going to abandon x86 like a lot of you are saying.
 

colinp

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Quick question, open to all. Isn't a normal feature of an NDA that you can't even reveal that you are under an NDA, never mind give some not-so-subtle hints on what the NDA is about?
 

8350rocks

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That depends on the NDA...for example, I can talk about things that are not proprietary/trade secret/unrevealed items without descriptions or specifics, only to say that something along these lines is coming...

Meanwhile, if you asked me about the project I am working on currently for the studio I work for, I can tell you that I am on a team, on a project. That's about it...because of the sensitivity of it.

Everyone knows AMD makes CPUs and GPUs and that is what they do. To say that something along those lines is coming is very vague at best, however, I can say that I know it is coming...instead of others speculating that it may or may not.

Now, let juanrga talk about Wintelarm servers some more, and about how a coprocessor is going to run an entire server system without a central logic unit to power it...

 

juanrga

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More popular laptop at Amazon is powered by ARM.



x86 --> [ x86 + ARM ] --> ARM

AMD is now in ^^^ second stage of the transition.
 

juanrga

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Everyone knows that. Since the 2014 desktop roadmap was released, we know that AMD is extending the Piledriver FX CPU series up to 2015, before has ready the replacement for the series.

What about mentioning details of the replacement? What about the new FX series including 8/12/16 cores? Or about the new FX branding including APUs as well? Or about offering HBM as option? Or about the new FX series abandoning the CMT architecture? Or about the new cores being tiny and efficient? Or about being made on 14nm FinFET...

This is the kind of information expected in an AMD CPU speculation thread.
 


Via's license is non-transferable, so NIVIDIA can't get in that way.
 
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