JAYDEEJOHN :
Thats true, as in the past. However, what we may see this time around is actually competing products in perf. What we do see is this. Both at same node, whereas C2D was ahead vs K8. Similar yields. Immersion shows us something here, and by that I mean, for the first time in a long while, AMD is releasing top binned chips first, not later on. So, just accounting for production costs and yields, AMD is on a better footing, combine that with a competing product, and you really cant compare the past to present day, tho Intel has mre cash, and maybe be able to produce somewhat cheaper, but no one knows this at this time, and we may never really know the whole of it, but looking at their 3GFhz release speaks volumes afaic
Yes, actually you can, and in this case, AMD has been duplicating the historical errors of Intel. Lying about product performance, creating rifts between themselves and consumers, (both commercial and private) and destroying their reputation. And now, just as with Intel, AMDs product must prove themselves since (with the exception of the 8 diehard fantards left on the planet) the general sentiment seems to be "show me the money".
AMD didnt help itself any when they tried to minimze the PR damage by calling their screw ups "missteps" either. Regardless, the product must prove itself....but weve had this converstation before. As the saying goes, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me". Intel fooled a lot of people. Phenom didnt....at least not after the release when the true perfromance was known. Hopefully, with PII AMD learned that the age old adage was true: You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cant fool all of the people all of the time. And hopefully, PII will meet every claim AMD has made. If it doesnt.....they will have screwed themsleves again. Honestly, I beleive it was netburst that generated enough skepticism through the entire sum of all markets to make people wary of not only C2D, but both PI and PII as well, but even if thats true, AMD still has to prove itself, as it can not rely upon its current reputation to sell its products.
The really funny thing about this is that in terms of product perfromance, if the PII actually lives up to the hype, its still in the same position as C2D was in terms of acceptance....few corporations are going to be willing to be the 'test pilots' and run out to sink tons of money into an unproven product. They will wait to see others results....unless they have no choice. Just as with C2D, it will probably be about 2 quarters before there is any large scale commercial acceptance of PII, and again, thats assuming it proves the hype to be true. Unfortunately, for AMD the similatrity to C2D ends there as AMD doesnt have the the same levels of cash to wait that Intel did, and Intel didnt have to deal with a recession. So AMD can be on better footing in terms of manufacturing yields than they were with Phenom I, but that is negated by the recession.....I suggest you read the links I posted earlier. There is a 20% across the board reduction in chip demand anticipated for Q4 and Q1....those lowered Q4 'predictions' posted by both Intel and AMD....niether company is now expected to meet their updated forecasts. Coupled with the increase in AMDs ATI assesments, Q4 may be far worse for AMD than anyone expected back in october. OR, they may be better...we dont know yet, but it doesnt look good.
JAYDEEJOHN :
Heres a lil reminder for those who keep pounding the "not enough money, theyre letting people go right and left, they dont have R&D funds". It would seem people in high places actually believe this as well , as found here
http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/2008/04/30/david-kirk-interview/6
A snippet
“Well, ATI’s CTO left about six months ago and AMD’s CTO left a week ago. Now, what does that say when the chief technical person at a company quits?” asked Kirk. Well, he was a part of the 10 percent job cut and his role is being split across the individual departments, I said.
R600 wasn't ATI's greatest invention and the company
hasn't really caught up since.
“It doesn’t really sound good though, and the story of AMD splitting his role means they’re not going to replace him because there are already people there doing his job,” David responded.
“AMD has been declining because it hasn’t built a competitive graphics architecture for almost two years now—ever since the AMD/ATI merger. They’ve been pulling engineers [from the GPU teams] to Fusion, which integrates GPU technology onto the CPU. They have to do four things to survive, but I don’t think they have enough money to do one thing.
“The first thing they have to do to compete with Intel is the process technology – they have to build the new fabs. The second thing is the next-generation CPU technology. The third one is the next generation GPU technology—we’re going to invest one billion dollars in here this year and they need to invest on the same level to keep up with us. And then the fourth thing is they say the future is going to be this integrated CPU/GPU thing called Fusion, which there’s no evidence to suggest this is true but they just said it. They believe it and they’re now doing it."
Now, as for the four things he mentioned, which now I laugh at, fusion is at the doorstep of reality, but hasnt come out, so, sofar, according to him, theyre hitting on all four points sans fusion, but it will come
Ahh, once again, you pull out your crystal ball......based on a 8 month old article. In general, theres nothing wrong with old articles, but you have to look at the contents for validity, and theres a lot of stuff you are assuming.
Point one.
There is zero proof that AMD is 'competeing' with Intel in process technology. For that fact of the matter, we dont even know if Intel is or ever was on par with AMDs process technology, past or present....all we have ever had is supposition...fanboy presumption, product performance, the financials and a few instances. And while the financials, those few instances (AMD shorting the channel for the OEMs, then for mobile, planning to release PI at 2.6GHz but only making 2.3GHz) and the performance of products
might indicate Intels process is better, we just dont know. Personally, IMO Intels process is better, but my opinion, as yours, is worth squat. Intel could have been muscling through the past 3 years on pure manufacturing might....we dont know, and its not likely we ever will. So the point is compeletly moot.
On point 2, I strongly suggest you check out the economy Jay.....its putting a little twist on 'point 2'...NY isnt likely to be building too many fabs as they rush head long towards bankruptcy...even with the new fat tax, the insane proposed increases in income and sales taxs....NYS is dying and all of Marios spawns grandstanding isnt going to change that. While Mubadalla
had intended to partially fund the fab, that was
before the 'alteration' of their deal, and was still contingent on NYS stabbing its own taxpayers for over $1billion of the cost.
Heres an optimistic article....from before the government so graciuosly decided to term the recession 'official'
AMD's critical journey
To date, no recent staments have been made about the malta fab. No doubt due to the pending outcome of the 'altered' foundry deal, and the recession. NY is a powder keg right now, both state govenment and the commercial sector
New York May Lose 225,000 Financial Jobs
NY job losses mount, Constellation selling half of nuke business
N.Y. Forecasts Steep Job Losses From Crisis
Gov. David Paterson unveils dire New York State budget that includes new taxes, layoffs and cuts
So unless Mubadalla is willing to foot the entire bill, I wouldnt consider the Malta fab a done deal.
(I cant help but think of Darth Vader everytime I see anything about the Abus....."pray I dont alter it further")
Point 3...not according to the financials
Wheres the [strike]beef[/strike] billion in GPU R&D?
Point 4...Its a good idea...in its segements.....and both companies are pursuing it, but it has yet to materialize in enterprise.
Jay......very few people are predicting next year to be a 'turn around' year for the global economy. All the 'fuzzy math' accounting of the "boom" is hitting the not so fuzzy harsh reality of empty bank accounts. With the goverment burning up the presses to produce more bongo bucks, some might not consider empty bank accounts a show stopper, but consumer confidense is low and diving unchecked. The government can stand there like Kevin Bacon in Animal House and cry "Remain calm, All is well," all it wants, but the poplulous is scared. Scared people dont run out and spend $1000 bucks on new PII or i7 computers. Enthusiasts may, but theres not enough of them to save either company. The BS stats, like the 2.2 miilion unocupied homes that was actually 18 miillion homes before the numbers were 'conditioned', the $700 billion bailout thats really now over $7 trillion.....all that stuff is coming to roost, and printing more cash isnt going to change it. And given where AMDs money is now going, will be going and where its been coming from, plus how many americans they actually employ, I wouldnt look to a federal bailout for them. For AMD to stay afloat as a CPU manufacturer over the next year, PII doesnt need to compete with C2Q....it needs to smash i7 and do it for half the price at twice the net profit. Times are grim and we are nowhere near the darkest hour yet.
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