AMD Piledriver rumours ... and expert conjecture

[Reynod]

We have had several requests for a sticky on AMD's yet to be released Piledriver architecture ... so here it is.

I want to make a few things clear though.

Post a question relevant to the topic, or information about the topic, or it will be deleted.

Post any negative personal comments about another user ... and they will be deleted.

Post flame baiting comments about the blue, red and green team and they will be deleted.

Enjoy ...

 

[Blandge]

it's too simple.

This is a thing? People don't like software because it is too simple? You must use Linux. I suppose that's a reasonable reaction for a Linux user.

 

[cgner]

I remember my first Pentium II 300 mhz. Man that thing was flying 😀

 

[Cazalan]

http://www.techpowerup.com/173921/AMD-FX-quot-Vishera-quot-Processors-Launch-Pricing-Surprises.html

$200 for the FX8350.

If those prices hold then AMD has a chance to get some market share back.

The $135 6300 looks like the best value to me.

AMD FX-6300 - $135: 6 cores, 3.50~4.10 GHz with TurboCore, 14 MB total cache


That's still i3 territory AND it's unlocked.

 

[-Fran-]

Well, I just got an i5 3570K for USD$190 with a USD$50 discount for the MoBo. The FX 8350 better be at the USD$200 mark with those offers.

I'm wondering if AMD will be able to lower the prices a bit more.

Cheers!

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Best indicator of CPU performance, relative to the competition, is its price.

+1. That's what was argued when BD pricing was leaked and prior to the release and subsequent reviews. Originally rumors were the 8150 would be a lot higher than the i7-2600K, and then started heading south of there as delay after delay occurred.

Of course, the fanboys said Naah, no correlation...

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Because apple makes a humongous amount of profit over the backs of gullible people that actually believe the church of St. Jobs Gospel that their products are divinely inspired products are actually better due to the high price they ask..

Yeah remember the 1000$ intel processors too, and that was over 20 years ago without inflation correction

And so did AMD about 6-7 years ago. Check back around 60 pages or so in this thread to see the evidence..

 

[fazers_on_stun]

You make the silly assumption that pricing is indicative of performance. I'm going to say it again: CPUs prices are set by what market segment the CPU in question occupies. PD release prices are going to be EXACTLY the same as BD release prices, regardless of how they perform against IB. They'll adjust to market pressures after the early adopters stop inflating demand, but until then, prices are basically set in stone.

?? According to the various links provided, the 8350 is about $200. IIRC the 8150 released at $254 about a year ago..

 

[cgner]

I think AMD has learned their lesson of overpricing products at launch. 8000 series GPU's should be priced lower than 7000 on release date, due to all lost sales during last winter.

 

[sookster54]

I'm already seeing prices of the A8 5600K and A10 5800K dropping as well as the top end FX BD ones, chances are the initial PD ones will sit at under $200 easily. I couldn't pass up the combo of the A10 and Asus mobo for $200 together, another $35 for the memory.

 

[esrever]

I think AMD has learned their lesson of overpricing products at launch. 8000 series GPU's should be priced lower than 7000 on release date, due to all lost sales during last winter.

they didn't lose any sales cause the cards were all sold out... even with the higher prices.

 

[sarinaide]

Well AMD have a trump card and to me they need to play it, FX has no future, an APU has a very exciting future, the platform is dynamic and flexible this is what AMD should be advancing.

 

[esrever]

Well AMD have a trump card and to me they need to play it, FX has no future, an APU has a very exciting future, the platform is dynamic and flexible this is what AMD should be advancing.

thats why the APUs are all launched first

 

[Dangi]

Here FX 8350 is sitting at 191€ that is ~250$ tax included (21% tax)
And FX 8150 is sitting at 168€ that is ~220$ tax included


I hope they update price € is now at 1.31$

 

[esrever]

Here FX 8350 is sitting at 191€ that is ~250$ tax included (21% tax)
And FX 8150 is sitting at 168€ that is ~220$ tax included


I hope they update price € is now at 1.31$

They nearly never do. Everyone likes to rip off non americans with prices.

 

[Cazalan]

They nearly never do. Everyone likes to rip off non americans with prices.

That's your government doing that, not AMD.

 

[Dangi]

That's your government doing that, not AMD.

That's the companies that sell here in Europe, almost every time 1$ = 1 € for them, now that mean paying between 20-30% for the same product, also that is one of the reasons why there is so much piracy in Europe, Steam games may be cheap, but we are still payin 30% for the same game, with MMOs is the same 14.99$ translates into 14.99€

 

[sarinaide]

In my country AMD is very overpriced, our distributors bring in at cost mark up where resellers add further mark ups and VAT so out here a $130 piece is closer to $180. AMD in this country are also retarded, they refuse to sell FM2 until FM1 sells out and yet no FM1 chips are available so we don't benefit from price drops until stocks clear. It took me ages and lots of weeding my way through AMD contacts to get a ES chip of Vishera and as hard to get a A85/A10 setup.

 

[tonync_01]

AMD lost $157million in Q3, will layoff 15% of workforce:
http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/18/3522812/amd-loses-157-million-in-q3-will-layoff-15-percent-of-workers

 

[cgner]

Non american government got 20% sales taxes and high tariffs to raise the money for pensions, healthcare, and help domestic manufacturers. Blame them.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

AMD lost $157million in Q3, will layoff 15% of workforce:
http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/18/3522812/amd-loses-157-million-in-q3-will-layoff-15-percent-of-workers

From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-finally-wakes-up-to-grim-reality-2012-10-18?siteid=yhoof2

AMD’s reaction to the changes going on in the PC industry seem to be slower than most other companies — and may doom the chipmaker.

On Thursday, AMD said it is going to begin a major restructuring and a “reset” of its business. That includes layoffs of 15% of its staff, in order to address the slowdown in the PC market. It expects to be at a break-even point in third quarter of 2013, at $1.3 billion in quarterly revenue. These disclosures were made along with results for the third quarter that showed whopping loss for the period.

"We under-estimated the speed of change in our industry. We expected to have several years to transform the AMD business,” Read said. “We must diversify beyond the traditional PC market and become a leader in fast-growing and adjacent markets.”

Why it took so long for Read and others at AMD to realize this is a fair question. Read came to the company last August from PC giant Lenovo, which may help explain why he was slow to appreciate the giant competitive edge offered by tablets, which have clearly made PC buyers think twice about what device best suits their needs.
...
AMD has had an up and down relationship with investors for many years. The tone of this conference call made it clear that some believe the company is on the brink of suffering another credibility gap.

Also from http://seekingalpha.com/article/934141-advanced-micro-devices-management-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=4

Turning to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, including long-term securities ended the quarter at $1.5 billion. Cash declined $279 million compared to the previous quarter, which was primarily the result of operational cash flows. Given the reduced size of our current business and OpEx reductions, we are adjusting our optimal cash balance from $1.5 billion to approximately $1.1 billion. Additional cash outflows that will occur in the fourth quarter of 2012 include a $50 million cash payment to GLOBALFOUNDRIES in the fourth quarter related to the 28-nanometer product limited waiver of exclusivity, as provided in the 2012 amendment to the Wafer Supply Agreement, with the final payment of $175 million related to the waiver to be paid by December 31, 2012.

Debt as of the end of the quarter was $2.04 billion. In the third quarter, AMD repaid in full all of the outstanding principal and accrued interest of the company's 5.75% convertible senior notes due 2012 or approximately $499 million and issued a $500 million aggregate principal amount, 7.5% senior notes due 2022.

Accounts receivable at the end of the quarter was $683 million, down $61 million compared to the end of the second quarter of 2012, due to lower revenue. Inventory was $744 million exiting the quarter, down $89 million, primarily as a result of the $100 million inventory write-down.

Now turning to the outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2012, AMD expects revenue to decrease 9% sequentially, plus or minus 4%. Operating expenses are expected to be approximately flat sequentially.

IOW, (1) AMD still has to shell out some $225 million to GloFlo, (2) AMD had to refinance their senior notes that came due at a higher interest rate (remember what I said some pages back about using one credit card to pay off another - NOT GOOD!), (3) Llano and BD apparently didn't sell well due to the Osborne effect so AMD lost approximately $100M of product, and (4) probably most importantly, this quarter - Q4 - is projected to be almost as bad as Q3 with a 9% further decrease on top of Q3's 10% decrease. AMD doesn't expect to break even until a year from now..

 

[cgner]

and the intel troll is back again.

 

[jaguarskx]

They nearly never do. Everyone likes to rip off non americans with prices.

Not sure which country you live in, but high prices are generally due to import tax, tariffs, shipping costs and to a small extent the foreign exchange rate. There's also VAT taxes in those countries who's government levies such a tax on it's citizens.

 

[esrever]

Not sure which country you live in, but high prices are generally due to import tax, tariffs, shipping costs and to a small extent the foreign exchange rate. There's also VAT taxes in those countries who's government levies such a tax on it's citizens.

I live in canada 40 mins from the border and somehow stuff here is 10-20% more expensive.

 

[jdwii]

Well AMD have a trump card and to me they need to play it, FX has no future, an APU has a very exciting future, the platform is dynamic and flexible this is what AMD should be advancing.

APU also has a CPU core in it and that means they have to improve their CPU performance and GPU performance so they can continue to improve their APU every year.

 

[jaguarskx]

and the intel troll is back again.

Well... unfortunately people cannot deny the fact the AMD is really hurting as evidenced by the layoff of 15% of it's employees before Christmas. That's 1,770 people. AMD hopes that will cut annual expenses by about $190 million annually beginning next year.

AMD needs to diversify their products as CEO Rory Read admitted they were a little shortsighted in this area. They are still a bit too dependent on the PC (desktop / laptop) market and must expand beyond that slowing market segment. Like Intel, they must expand into the tablet market and perhaps the smartphone market as well. Both will be an uphill fight, but at least AMD has released the Z-60 CPU for tablet. How will it compare to Samsung's A5X CPU will remain to be seen. Intel's Clover Trail CPU for tablet is likely to be a bit slow, and it probably won't be until next year when Intel releases an Atom based on Haswell that Intel may have a Tablet CPU that performs will against other tablet CPUs. However, this a topic on AMD, not Intel.

AMD needs to end production of socket AM3+ CPUs. I have stated this many times before and I reiterate this is something AMD needs to do sooner rather than later.With a slowing PC market segment AMD does not need to produce both socket AM3+ and FM2 desktop processors. AMD is cannibalizing some of it's own sales by offering two processors that can more or less do the same job. Socket AM3+ CPUs are definitely more powerful in terms of CPU processing power, but socket FM2 is truly the processor that will save AMD because it currently exists for both laptops and desktops.

Hopefully AMD can get back to better financial health. But even if things gets financially worse for AMD (whether through management missteps or continued weak global economic conditions or both) there are two possible golden parachutes for AMD. The first would be a possible acquisition by another company; this would make current shareholders extremely happy. In a different thread some floated the idea that Apple or Samsung could be possible suitors, but I think that's very unlikely especially the thought of the Apple idea. The other possibility will not be so popular by shareholder which is to enter into bankruptcy which allows AMD to fend off creditors that it would owe money to. It would also make AMD stock worthless, but they will be able to restructure itself under bankruptcy protection (which allows a company to immediate nullify any and all contracts) and can allow AMD to emerge out of bankruptcy as a leaner and more competitive company.