Intel's Future Chips: News, Rumours & Reviews

[aldaia]

I guess that asking you to look at the previous graphs that shows Intel's 10nm density advantage over GLOFLO 7nm provided by me and Gon Freecss is to much to ask right?..

Sorry, but you provided no graphs showing Intel's 10nm density advantage over GLOFLO 7nm you provided one showing density advantage over Samsung and TSMC 10nm.

 

[aldaia]

Ashraf Eassa
@TMFChipFool
MURTHY JUST ADMITTED THAT NEXT YEAR, INTEL SERVER CPU LAUNCHES WILL BE ON 14NM!!!!!
12:52 PM - 15 May 2018
https://twitter.com/TMFChipFool/status/996478399794368514

Link to the source of this information:
46TH ANNUAL J.P. MORGAN
Global technology, Media and Communications Conference
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/tmc18/sessions/15020-intel-corporation/webcast

So basically in 2019 we will have 7nm Rome vs 14nm Cascade Lake

 

[goldstone77]

Let me help!

GlobalFoundries will actually have a smaller logic cell. Intel uses COAG to try and get better density. GlobalFoundry has greatly improved their design for transistors as well. I've linked this information before here!

 

[goldstone77]

Ashraf Eassa
@TMFChipFool
MURTHY JUST ADMITTED THAT NEXT YEAR, INTEL SERVER CPU LAUNCHES WILL BE ON 14NM!!!!!
12:52 PM - 15 May 2018
https://twitter.com/TMFChipFool/status/996478399794368514

Link to the source of this information:
46TH ANNUAL J.P. MORGAN
Global technology, Media and Communications Conference
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/tmc18/sessions/15020-intel-corporation/webcast

So basically in 2019 we will have 7nm Rome vs 14nm Cascade Lake

Literally, it will be the first time in history that AMD will have a node lead! I did mention that it looked like this was going to happen a year ago.

 

[aldaia]

Intel® Core™ i3-8121U Processor
4M Cache, up to 3.20 GHz
https://ark.intel.com/products/136863/Intel-Core-i3-8121U-Processor-4M-Cache-up-to-3_20-GHz?q=8121U

Intel® SSE4.1, Intel® SSE4.2, Intel® AVX2
(but no AVX512)

 

[goldstone77]

Murthy Renduchintala
Chief Engineering Officer & Executive Vice President, Intel Corporation

Jim is really focused on driving core silicon engineering and execution. However having said that, the boundaries between their roles is very diffuse. In fact nobody in the engineering leadership team that I drive has an overly constraint box in which they live. So.. We.. I.. I'm really hoping the chemistry between Raja and Jim and the rest of the Intel technical leadership team really enables us to move our ability to devote our customers to another level.

Intel pulls out all the stops giving it's engineering leadership team freedom to create! Jim focused on driving core silicon engineering and execution! If anyone knows how to remain competitive when at a process disadvantage it's Jim Keller!

 

[Gon Freecss]

Nothing of what you two posted really answers the points I raised as questions.

Having better density is good and all, but compared to what? FD-SOI at 32nm was better than Intel's 32nm with FinFET hands down, but it was a shame AMD had to use the BD uArch on top of it. IBM did take advantage of the good side of FD-SOI fully and produced really amazing CPUs with it for Mainframes.

So, again, do you know what TANGIBLE advantages all those numbers translate to? Projected density is fine, like I said, but there are OTHER properties that are as important as density. A single advantage doesn't mean they're ahead in overall performance for a node. Intel has already stated their 10nm node won't be better in all regards to 14nm++, so even if they're denser at 10nm, that won't translate into proper gains in certain markets. That is not what should make Intel shake, since it's projections, but the delays should. That means the WHOLE pipeline of products will get delays if they're not re-planned/re-purposed.

Cheers!

You just ignored the second part of my post.

10nm++ is projected to be better than 14nm++ all around (density, power, performance).

No one knows how other foundries' processes perform, but they're all gonna be weaker than 14nm++. Chances it'll take Intel's own 10nm++ process for the industry to break 14nm++'s transistor performance.

No, I didn't. I'm talking about 10nm vs 14nm++, since 10nm++ is not even being worked on at the moment; a projection is hardly accurate enough to say it will be a "winner node". Has Intel even mentioned anything beyond 10nm with a potential time-to-market anyway? We have time-less projections, but nothing else. And if you quote 2017 roadmaps, then 10nm should already be in HVM, but it is not.

So, you guys can put as many numbers around the process as you want and keep saying "everything is fine", but when reality catches up to Intel (which, it seems it already has, since they're shuffling people around) you'll see changes in the roadmaps. That should be happening very soon.

Cheers!

10nm has been scrapped for anything but mobile (and they're only releasing a couple SKUs). 10nm+ and 10nm++ are going to replace 14nm++ for the whole lineup. And oh, 10nm is gonna be used with Tremont, but that's Atom architecture.

Where have I said everything will be fine? Anyway, 10nm+ is slated for 2019, and 10nm++ is slated for 2020. That's what we know of so far.

Ashraf Eassa
@TMFChipFool
MURTHY JUST ADMITTED THAT NEXT YEAR, INTEL SERVER CPU LAUNCHES WILL BE ON 14NM!!!!!
12:52 PM - 15 May 2018
https://twitter.com/TMFChipFool/status/996478399794368514

Link to the source of this information:
46TH ANNUAL J.P. MORGAN
Global technology, Media and Communications Conference
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/tmc18/sessions/15020-intel-corporation/webcast

So basically in 2019 we will have 7nm Rome vs 14nm Cascade Lake

Cascade Lake will be released this year.

 

[goldstone77]

10nm has been scrapped for anything but mobile (and they're only releasing a couple SKUs). 10nm+ and 10nm++ are going to replace 14nm++ for the whole lineup. And oh, 10nm is gonna be used with Tremont, but that's Atom architecture.

Where have I said everything will be fine? Anyway, 10nm+ is slated for 2019, and 10nm++ is slated for 2020. That's what we know of so far.

Nope! We don't know that, and neither does Intel! They can't produce 10nm without lots of defects. Mass volume is unknown 2019, and they don't know when they will be able to do that. So, 10nm+ or 10nm++ are not even on the plate you are speculating!

Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on that 10-nanometer point. So as the volume production pushes out into 2019, given you understand the yield issue supposedly, is this a first half pushout, or does it push out into the second half? And when it actually does ramp, do you think it actually will be the current 10-nanometer process that's shipping, or will that be slipping out to 10-nanometer plus potentially?

Brian M. Krzanich - Intel Corp.

So I'm just going to correct you. You said that supposedly we have the solutions. We do understand these, and so we do have confidence that we can go and work these issues, Stacy. Right now, like I said, we are shipping. We're going to start that ramp as soon as we think the yields are in line. So I said 2019. We didn't say first or second half, but we'll do it as quickly as we can based on the yield.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166652-intel-intc-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

[goldstone77]

Murthy Renduchintala
Chief Engineering Officer & Executive Vice President, Intel Corporation

Well, clearly we haven't disclosed are 10nm server road map in any detail yet. But, quiet frankly I'm very excited by the product pipeline that we have going forward in our server road map. I'm equally excited by the products we will be launching this year and next year in 14nm in our data center road map. Again, I want to bring the discussion back to product leadership

16:58/34:14
https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/tmc18/sessions/15020-intel-corporation/webcast

 

[goldstone77]

Intel (INTC) Presents at JP Morgan 46th Annual Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference (Transcript)
May 15, 2018 5:18 PM ET
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4174405-intel-intc-presents-jp-morgan-46th-annual-global-technology-media-communications-conference

 

[Gon Freecss]

10nm has been scrapped for anything but mobile (and they're only releasing a couple SKUs). 10nm+ and 10nm++ are going to replace 14nm++ for the whole lineup. And oh, 10nm is gonna be used with Tremont, but that's Atom architecture.

Where have I said everything will be fine? Anyway, 10nm+ is slated for 2019, and 10nm++ is slated for 2020. That's what we know of so far.

Nope! We don't know that, and neither does Intel! They can't produce 10nm without lots of defects. Mass volume is unknown 2019, and they don't know when they will be able to do that. So, 10nm+ or 10nm++ are not even on the plate you are speculating!

Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on that 10-nanometer point. So as the volume production pushes out into 2019, given you understand the yield issue supposedly, is this a first half pushout, or does it push out into the second half? And when it actually does ramp, do you think it actually will be the current 10-nanometer process that's shipping, or will that be slipping out to 10-nanometer plus potentially?

Brian M. Krzanich - Intel Corp.

So I'm just going to correct you. You said that supposedly we have the solutions. We do understand these, and so we do have confidence that we can go and work these issues, Stacy. Right now, like I said, we are shipping. We're going to start that ramp as soon as we think the yields are in line. So I said 2019. We didn't say first or second half, but we'll do it as quickly as we can based on the yield.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166652-intel-intc-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

Wrong, we do know that the next generation of Intel processors (excluding Atom of course) will be Icelake, and that will be on 10nm+.

Cannonlake has been scrapped, as it's part of the mobile 8th gen family. It's not gonna be released on desktops nor servers.

 

[aldaia]

10nm has been scrapped for anything but mobile (and they're only releasing a couple SKUs). 10nm+ and 10nm++ are going to replace 14nm++ for the whole lineup. And oh, 10nm is gonna be used with Tremont, but that's Atom architecture.

Where have I said everything will be fine? Anyway, 10nm+ is slated for 2019, and 10nm++ is slated for 2020. That's what we know of so far.

Nope! We don't know that, and neither does Intel! They can't produce 10nm without lots of defects. Mass volume is unknown 2019, and they don't know when they will be able to do that. So, 10nm+ or 10nm++ are not even on the plate you are speculating!

Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on that 10-nanometer point. So as the volume production pushes out into 2019, given you understand the yield issue supposedly, is this a first half pushout, or does it push out into the second half? And when it actually does ramp, do you think it actually will be the current 10-nanometer process that's shipping, or will that be slipping out to 10-nanometer plus potentially?

Brian M. Krzanich - Intel Corp.

So I'm just going to correct you. You said that supposedly we have the solutions. We do understand these, and so we do have confidence that we can go and work these issues, Stacy. Right now, like I said, we are shipping. We're going to start that ramp as soon as we think the yields are in line. So I said 2019. We didn't say first or second half, but we'll do it as quickly as we can based on the yield.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166652-intel-intc-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

Wrong, we do know that the next generation of Intel processors (excluding Atom of course) will be Icelake, and that will be on 10nm+.

Cannonlake has been scrapped, as it's part of the mobile 8th gen family. It's not gonna be released on desktops nor servers.

Before ice-lake we we will see cascade-lake and whiskey-lake, both in 14nm.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/11/intel-corps-whiskey-lake-revealed.aspx

There are rumors that another 14nm something-lake will come too.
https://semiaccurate.com/2018/05/14/another-body-of-water-is-forming-in-front-of-our-eyes/

I wouldn't expect ice-lake until 2020 or later.

 

[Gon Freecss]

10nm has been scrapped for anything but mobile (and they're only releasing a couple SKUs). 10nm+ and 10nm++ are going to replace 14nm++ for the whole lineup. And oh, 10nm is gonna be used with Tremont, but that's Atom architecture.

Where have I said everything will be fine? Anyway, 10nm+ is slated for 2019, and 10nm++ is slated for 2020. That's what we know of so far.

Nope! We don't know that, and neither does Intel! They can't produce 10nm without lots of defects. Mass volume is unknown 2019, and they don't know when they will be able to do that. So, 10nm+ or 10nm++ are not even on the plate you are speculating!

Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on that 10-nanometer point. So as the volume production pushes out into 2019, given you understand the yield issue supposedly, is this a first half pushout, or does it push out into the second half? And when it actually does ramp, do you think it actually will be the current 10-nanometer process that's shipping, or will that be slipping out to 10-nanometer plus potentially?

Brian M. Krzanich - Intel Corp.

So I'm just going to correct you. You said that supposedly we have the solutions. We do understand these, and so we do have confidence that we can go and work these issues, Stacy. Right now, like I said, we are shipping. We're going to start that ramp as soon as we think the yields are in line. So I said 2019. We didn't say first or second half, but we'll do it as quickly as we can based on the yield.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166652-intel-intc-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

Wrong, we do know that the next generation of Intel processors (excluding Atom of course) will be Icelake, and that will be on 10nm+.

Cannonlake has been scrapped, as it's part of the mobile 8th gen family. It's not gonna be released on desktops nor servers.

Before ice-lake we we will see cascade-lake and whiskey-lake, both in 14nm.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/11/intel-corps-whiskey-lake-revealed.aspx

There are rumors that another 14nm something-lake will come too.
https://semiaccurate.com/2018/05/14/another-body-of-water-is-forming-in-front-of-our-eyes/

I wouldn't expect ice-lake until 2020 or later.

Cascade Lake is server only (and HEDT, 8th generation). Whiskey Lake is Coffee Lake with GT2 graphics on mobile, Kaby Lake-R's successor.

We don't know of anything else on 14nm, at least yet.

 

[aldaia]

Paul Alcorn has got one of those elusive laptops with canon-lake.
https://twitter.com/PaulyAlcorn/status/996153037658898432

Hope we soon see some benchmarks. In particular will be interesting to see how it compares clock for clock with sky/kaby-lake.

 

[-Fran-]

So many "lakes"... Can someone draw a table, please? XD

This is getting so damn confusing.

Cheers! 😛

 

[aldaia]

There are actually more lakes than you may think.
https://www.intel.la/content/www/xl/es/design/products-and-solutions/processors-and-chipsets/platform-codenames.html#search-0=lake

And aparently intel does not list all Lakes. For instance Cascade Lake is not in the list.

 

[goldstone77]

So many "lakes"... Can someone draw a table, please? XD

This is getting so damn confusing.

Cheers! 😛

Here you go Yuka! 😉
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel

 

[-Fran-]

And talking about lakes: https://twitter.com/TMFChipFool/status/996690209541689345

It's been a "doom and gloom" week for Intel, hasn't it? Well, more like month. If all these rumours are true, then its going to be a tought couple of years for them. Not in the AMD-stay-alive type of way, but in the keep-the-top-spot-at-everything type of way.

Also, thanks for the links... So many lakes... Intel might drown in them! HA, geddit?

Cheers!

EDIT: Typo.

 

[Gon Freecss]

And talking like lakes: https://twitter.com/TMFChipFool/status/996690209541689345

It's been a "doom and gloom" week for Intel, hasn't it? Well, more like month. If all these rumours are true, then its going to be a tought couple of years for them. Not in the AMD-stay-alive type of way, but in the keep-the-top-spot-at-everything type of way.

Also, thanks for the links... So many lakes... Intel might down in them! HA, geddit?

Cheers!

Lakes are gonna continue on the mainstream. Alderlake (7nm) after Tigerlake (10nm++). Next gen servers (post Icelake-SP) will be called Sapphire Rapids (on 10nm++), and then Granite Rapids (7nm).

So, it seems if 10nm+ doesn't yield the way Intel wants in 2019, they're gonna run with Cascade Lake (14nm++) throughout the year. I think Intel might not refresh their processors, and run with the lineups they already have until 10nm+. Maybe they do a small scale refresh? Who knows at this point. They haven't planned for anything beyond 14nm++.

Hopefully they turn things around, and deliver Icelake and Icelake-SP in 2019.

 

[YoAndy]

I see there is people that still believes all this Intel babbling. The problem (for Intel) is that TSMC and Samsung 10nm entered high volume production in 2016. Intel 10nm is not expected to enter high volume production until 2019 or 2020 (according to latest rumors) so, yes they are a generation ahead but, unfortunately, 3-4 years too late.

And your base for all these are called rumors? Okay got it..

Just to clarify:
Intel current 10nm yield is rumored to be in the single digits, and volume production is rumored to be delayed till 2020. Intel just released a 10nm i3 that has worse specs than Kaby Lake with a disabled iGPU seems to fit those rumors of bad yields. BK in a recent earning calls said he didn't know when 10nm volume production will start. He said it could be first or second half of 2019 depending on yields. If yields are as rumors suggest, single digit, then the rumor of 2020 volume production looks good as well.

Ya'll are spreading way to many useless rumors..,, this comes from Intel itself. CEO Brian Krzanich:

We continue to make progress on our 10-nanometer process. We are shipping in low volume and yields are improving, though the rate of improvement is slower than we anticipated. As a result, volume production is moving from the second half of 2018 into 2019. We understand the yield issues and have defined improvements for them, but they will take time to implement and qualify. We have leadership products on the roadmap that continue to take advantage of 14-nanometer, with Whiskey Lake for clients and Cascade Lake for the data center coming later this year.

Krzanich then argues that these delays are more-or-less business as usual, and that Intel is still delivering real gains following Moore’s Law. He then states:

For example, 14-nanometer process optimizations and architectural improvements have resulted in performance gains of more than 70 percent since the first 14-nanometer products were launched. We combine these advances in manufacturing technology and architecture to produce truly leadership products. And it’s that product leadership that ultimately matters most to our customers and end users.

Under questioning, Krzanich acknowledged that the difficulties with 10nm are related to not having EUV to use yet, but claimed that Intel still has “process and performance leadership,” and again stated that the company had done “70 percent improvements” to 14nm over its lifetime. He also argued that Intel’s 10nm problems were related to its aggressive scaling — something that may well be true, given that Intel did set aggressive 10nm targets

 

[YoAndy]

More form Intel's CEO, Krzanich reckons Intel's 14nm transistors are pretty frickin' good compared to the competition.

He insisted the 10nm processor chip design wasn't fundamentally flawed, saying the design libraries were fine, and it was issues with multi- and multi-multi-patterning that were causing low yields. When asked if the company was tempted to skip 10nm and go directly to 7nm, Krzanich wasn't keen, pointing out that a lot of cash had been spent building 10nm production lines so there's no going back now.

"We're not going to skip 10, there's a lot of learning there that we can carry into 7nm production," he said. "Also, around 80 per cent of our 14nm capital equipment is movable to 10nm production and the same thing will happen between 10 and 7nm processes."

With regard to the Spectre-Meltdown situation, Krzanich said he was proud of the way the company and the industry had handled the situation "with transparency." New processors with a hardware fix for the security issues will be out later this year, he promised. And Finally, chip design guru Jim Keller has joined Intel as a senior veep for silicon engineering. He was at Tesla, and previously AMD as chief architect.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/12693/intel-delays-mass-production-of-10-nm-cpus-to-2019

Intel's
Production so far actually looks like this
1999 180 nm
2001 130 nm
2003 90 nm
2005 65 nm
2007 45 nm
2009 32 nm
2011 22 nm
2014 14 nm
2018 10 nm for laptops
2019 10 nm+?

 

[Gon Freecss]

More form Intel's CEO, Krzanich reckons Intel's 14nm transistors are pretty frickin' good compared to the competition.

Most likely won't be beat until 10nm++ in 2020 (if Intel delivers).

When asked if the company was tempted to skip 10nm and go directly to 7nm, Krzanich wasn't keen, pointing out that a lot of cash had been spent building 10nm production lines so there's no going back now.

10nm equipment are compatible with 7nm. They're not skipping 10nm because they feel it has a ton of untapped potential.

 

[aldaia]

Ya'll are spreading way to many useless rumors..,, this comes from Intel itself. CEO Brian Krzanich:

As far as I know the title of this thread is:
Intel's Future Chips: News, Rumours & Reviews

By the way we already spread rumors back in september.
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-1581001/intel-future-chips-news-rumours-reviews/page-49.html#20193228
Not only those rumours turned out to be true, they actually turned out to be optimistic.

On the other hand Brian Krzanich credibility is lower than intel's 10nm yields. He anounced 10nm canon lake for 2016, then for 2017, then for 2018 and now for 2019 .....
Of course, sooner or later, he will be right, but acording to rumours it's not this time 😀

 

[YoAndy]

Ya'll are spreading way to many useless rumors..,, this comes from Intel itself. CEO Brian Krzanich:

As far as I know the title of this thread is:
Intel's Future Chips: News, Rumours & Reviews

By the way we already spread rumors back in september.
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-1581001/intel-future-chips-news-rumours-reviews/page-49.html#20193228
Not only those rumours turned out to be true, they actually turned out to be optimistic.

On the other hand Brian Krzanich credibility is lower than intel's 10nm yields. He anounced 10nm canon lake for 2016, then for 2017, then for 2018 and now for 2019 .....
Of course, sooner or later, he will be right, but acording to rumours it's not this time 😀

So okay from now own I will disregard Intel's board and I'll listen to you and the media... seems legit. 😉 We all know how things could go wrong and sometimes could take longer than expected.

Actually Intel's Intel Core i3-8121U Processor lunched on Q2'18 for the mobile segment: Using the new 10nm lithography
https://ark.intel.com/products/136863/Intel-Core-i3-8121U-Processor-4M-Cache-up-to-3_20-GHz

 

[-Fran-]

Ya'll are spreading way to many useless rumors..,, this comes from Intel itself. CEO Brian Krzanich:

As far as I know the title of this thread is:
Intel's Future Chips: News, Rumours & Reviews

By the way we already spread rumors back in september.
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-1581001/intel-future-chips-news-rumours-reviews/page-49.html#20193228
Not only those rumours turned out to be true, they actually turned out to be optimistic.

On the other hand Brian Krzanich credibility is lower than intel's 10nm yields. He anounced 10nm canon lake for 2016, then for 2017, then for 2018 and now for 2019 .....
Of course, sooner or later, he will be right, but acording to rumours it's not this time 😀

So okay from now own I will disregard Intel's board and I'll listen to you and the media... seems legit. 😉 We all know how things could go wrong and sometimes could take longer than expected.

Actually Intel's Intel Core i3-8121U Processor lunched on Q2'18 for the mobile segment: Using the new 10nm lithography
https://ark.intel.com/products/136863/Intel-Core-i3-8121U-Processor-4M-Cache-up-to-3_20-GHz

Grays, YoAndy... Grays.

Not everything is black or white. You need to take all information with some salt. Intel's board does not have your best interests in mind, but their own (as in, share price and their own jobs), so they WILL skew the truth to their own agenda. Just like the media will skew the information to their own. This just the way information goes.

If you diss one side completely, you WILL have incomplete information. Rumors give you perspective to some "truths"; no need to over complicate it.

Cheers!