AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture

[de5_Roy]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1451541-xbox-ps-4-the-big-winner-is-amd

i didn't quite understand his math(full disclosure: i don't understand math...): $70 for the whole soc? brazos socs should come to at least $40 (based on newegg's e-350/450 mitx board prices), shouldn't jaguar be a bit higher, like >$50? shouldn't cape verde gpus be higher than at least $50, pitcairn gpus >$80-120? then there are costs of 8 gb ddr3 and gddr5 for xbox one and ps4 respectively. if the $70 number is true then amd either has ripped off mainstream users or got a bad deal with the consoles...?

the one thing the article gets right is nvidia being the loser in all these.

 

[Cazalan]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1451541-xbox-ps-4-the-big-winner-is-amd

I like this guys disclosures. "no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours". Wow a whole 3 days? And that technically doesn't preclude trades already placed but haven't triggered.

Anyhow, I definitely hope they're making more than $70 for the SoC because it's more expensive than the A10-5800K to make.

 

[sarinaide]

I have said this before and you can watch the space, why has there been no Steamroller codename given. When the bulldozer core arch came out, first gen - Zambezi, second gen - Vishera and yet we are now withing 5 months of the Steamroller family and no FX codenames given, yet we know Kaveri is there, we also know that SB1150 will be the updated chipset to AM3+ but Steamroller FX will be the last ever traditional x86 only part AMD ever designs and this is not a bad thing like people make out, all it meas is that AMD will take high performance x86 cores fuse on a Radeon SIMD and make high end APU's ie: PS4 and XBox, AMD now know they can fuse high end graphics with high end processors. Steamroller also legitimately marks the end of what is the Bulldozer core and Excavator will be a new architecture and one where Jim Keller will have his influence upon. But 5 years ago AMD made the mantra "The future is vision" and the APU is AMD's future whether the traditionalists like it or not it represents the future and HSA as they always said will only start getting momentum in 2014 and beyond.

The upside for AMD now is that the console is now a fully fledged x86 system, this is not a special designed silicon with special needs for coding, consoles still pull the overwhelming majority of game development and as EA lead developer has recently said, the PS4 opens up a whole new world of coding and scaling, since console and pc is now hard to distinguish as they are the same that only bodes well for AMD long term.

 

[gamerk316]

Here's a windows bench 3570k vs 8320
http://www.anandtech.com/bench/Product/701?vs=698

Looks pretty good in multithreaded benchmarks especially considering the price difference and how 8350 performed in those Linux benchmarks. It's pretty clear that FX8 series is better than i5 series when all 8 cores are loaded.

Which has been known for a while; at full load, PD > IB. The problem is getting the CPU to full load.

Also, hi.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Look at the margins.
20%
That should explain it all right there.
The licensing was but a small fraction per unit sold of their previous contributions, which was strictly gpu.
Not now however, and Ive tried to tell people, the naysayers mostly, not only is this 3 times what they had in the past, no more licensing.

The real question is now then, does AMD have the rights to use faulty leftovers if you will, to recoup even more, or exactly how is this deal made?
Its already way beyond what they had, but could end up even sweeter

 

[gamerk316]

Microsoft claims 8x graphics performance over the Xbox 360. My computation is that this APU gives something as 1.9 TFLOPs.

Sounds about right. Going from essentially a modified 1950XT to an A10-APU? So I'm figuring somewhere around 6670 level performance. So yeah, I can see the performance jump.

More interested in pure CPU throughput though; I don't see significant performance increases there. Assuming one core locked down for the OS, you gain a core, reduce clockspeed by half (3.2 down to 1.6), and move to X86. Since X86 is about twice as efficient as the POWER7 arch, I figure that, essentially, the CPU per-core performance isn't going to be significantly different from what it was last generation; maybe 10-20% more powerful. Essentially, the CPU will be powerful enough to feed the GPU, but I'm not entirely sure there's enough to, say, implement significant amounts of extra enhancements (physics, for instance).

The one version of this that I see gaining enough ground to become a large minority is Ubuntu. It's supported by Canonical in a similar fashion to windows, has similar features, arguably the best stability, and the UI is very similar to the Windows 7 desktop in a lot of ways.

When people think of Linux, they think of Ubuntu. That one distro will determine how Linux moves forward.

 

[gamerk316]

Also, if you consider, even the US Government has conceded Linux is worthy by switching over. Many public/private sector entities are switching over because it's more efficient, and has better security than windows.

Not just no, but hell no. The US Government most certainly isn't using Linux as a desktop OS and NT (Server 2003/2008/2012) is the prevalent server OS. You only see Linux is net-app style devices (McAfee security devices, RPAs, IDS and various other utility systems) or where they deploy ESXi. For heavy processing Solaris is the preferred choice, previously on SPARC but their now using x86 due to costing. This is pretty much the same thing you see in Corporate America and for a very good reason.

Microsoft provides an extremely wide range of management services and solutions along with best practices and a very robust credentialing system. That all works to reduce man-hour requirements for administration of IT services which is the largest driver of IT cost. A handful of college students with Linux knowledge may be able to provide services for small business's but absolutely doesn't work for Corporate solutions. The predominate Linux for big corporate isn't Ubuntu but RHEL and it's twin sibling CentOS. Anyone who's planning on working Linux in big IT needs to be intimately familiar with RHEL.

^^ THIS. Extra credit for naming CentOS.

EDIT

I do note though, when legacy systems are still in use, you will also see a lot of VAX/VMS based servers/workstations. Theres a reason why MSFT paid those guys to build NT for them...

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I would add, cant remember the exact numbers, but others have claimed its but a drop in the bucket, as cpus outsell consoles hugely, and only account for a small percentage.
Add that percentage directly to AMDs coughers now, which is 33% by years end of their market, regardless of the blue gorrilla, and as high as 50% going forwards.
These numbers can change, if AMD continues down this path, and for the better

 

[gamerk316]

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57585560-75/windows-role-at-the-core-of-microsofts-xbox-one/

THREE OS's? Boy, worse then I thought. More or less guarantees at least one core is reserved for the OS, possibly even two.

 

[kettu]

Which has been known for a while; at full load, PD > IB. The problem is getting the CPU to full load.

Also, hi.

Not to everyone, I thought. Hi, welcome back.

 

[gamerk316]

Let PS4 v XB1 fight commence:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6972/xbox-one-hardware-compared-to-playstation-4/2

The eSRAM is going to be key for the XB1. For their sake, I hope they are using it as a cache, otherwise they are going to have trouble keeping the GPU fed. Its clear the PS4 has more GPU horsepower though.

 

[cowboy44mag]

I see AMD's biggest single problem going forward is the whole stigma of Intel dominance. Few people know, or would admit, that PD > IB at full load simply because most don't think Piledriver can best Ivy Bridge at anything. Even if Steamroller released with impossible numbers, say twice as powerful as Haswell, Haswell would still outsell Steamroller. The reason is as simple as going to your nearest Best Buy and talking with their "experts". People on this forum, who actually know the tech and build their own systems know the strengths, weaknesses and price for power of the computers they are building. The average Joe going out to buy a computer is going to go for a IBM, Dell, HP, Acer, ect.. and they are going to take the word of the teenage kid working for minimum wadge as gospel. Most of those kids, not fully understanding the tech or companies, are going to preach Intel superiority regardless of how good Steamroller may be simply because Intel is the "known" namebrand. That is the main reason why years ago when AMD was better than Intel processors Intel still outsold AMD. I liken it to Smith and Wesson vs Ruger revolvers. Smith and Wesson is the "known" name and noobs will always pay double what they would have to just to have the name even though Ruger revolvers outperform S&W and are usually half the cost. Salesmen will always be more than happy to sell the most expensive models too, even if your just paying for a name with no performance increase behind it. No matter how good Steamroller, and the next gen of APUs are AMD is going to have an uphill battle trying to compete against the "household namebrand".

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I see some exclusivity coming Sonys way, and see their stock is doing well after the nextbox announcement

 

[cowboy44mag]

Honestly this generation of consoles is going to be so similar I can't see one being able to say they are better and being able to back it up easily. They will have to prove their console's superiority with superior exclusive titles which is going to make for large, more developed games with better story lines and not just better graphics. Studios producing games across consoles will have to step their "game" up too or their titles will be passed up for the better exclusive titles. What is going to be really nice is I don't think games will be in development as long as they were for the last generation as the coding across the board is going to be so similar. One thing is for certain though, no matter who wins the console wars this time around AMD still wins.

 

[gamerk316]

I see some exclusivity coming Sonys way, and see their stock is doing well after the nextbox announcement

MSFT has VERY few exclusives, where Sony still has a bunch. To name a few:
God of War
Uncharted
Resistance
Dark/Demon Souls (so far at least)
Killzone
Infamous
Any JRPG not made by Square-Enix

Exclusive wise, Sony wins.

Sony stock went up more due to roumers of the Entertainment divison being spun though, not as much as a response to MSFTs horrid (and lets admit it; that press conference was BAD) reveal.

 

[esrever]

I see some exclusivity coming Sonys way, and see their stock is doing well after the nextbox announcement

MSFT has VERY few exclusives, where Sony still has a bunch. To name a few:
God of War
Uncharted
Resistance
Dark/Demon Souls (so far at least)
Killzone
Infamous
Any JRPG not made by Square-Enix

Exclusive wise, Sony wins.

Sony stock went up more due to roumers of the Entertainment divison being spun though, not as much as a response to MSFTs horrid (and lets admit it; that press conference was BAD) reveal.

microsoft says they have 8 more exclusives to announce. dark souls and w/e square makes probably will go multiplat.

 

[Cazalan]

Let PS4 v XB1 fight commence:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6972/xbox-one-hardware-compared-to-playstation-4/2

The eSRAM is going to be key for the XB1. For their sake, I hope they are using it as a cache, otherwise they are going to have trouble keeping the GPU fed. Its clear the PS4 has more GPU horsepower though.

That's quite a disparity is graphics power (50%). Microsoft is at a big disadvantage hardware wise but they also have decades of OS experience on x86 to leverage.

The name is horrible though. XBox One for a 3rd generation gaming system. I can hear the salesmen crying now about how many times they'll have to explain why the PlayStation is at version 4 while Xbox is still at 1. They should have gone with Xbox Infinity or a whole new name.

 

[esrever]

Let PS4 v XB1 fight commence:

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6972/xbox-one-hardware-compared-to-playstation-4/2

The eSRAM is going to be key for the XB1. For their sake, I hope they are using it as a cache, otherwise they are going to have trouble keeping the GPU fed. Its clear the PS4 has more GPU horsepower though.

That's quite a disparity is graphics power (50%). Microsoft is at a big disadvantage hardware wise but they also have decades of OS experience on x86 to leverage.

The name is horrible though. XBox One for a 3rd generation gaming system. I can hear the salesmen crying now about how many times they'll have to explain why the PlayStation is at version 4 while Xbox is still at 1. They should have gone with Xbox Infinity or a whole new name.

people are just going to call it the X1 or something. It will be big enough that sales people are going to know what it is if someone asked for it. I don't see how it could be that bad considered nobody would likely want to buy an original xbox.

 

[montosaurous]

I see AMD's biggest single problem going forward is the whole stigma of Intel dominance. Few people know, or would admit, that PD > IB at full load simply because most don't think Piledriver can best Ivy Bridge at anything. Even if Steamroller released with impossible numbers, say twice as powerful as Haswell, Haswell would still outsell Steamroller. The reason is as simple as going to your nearest Best Buy and talking with their "experts". People on this forum, who actually know the tech and build their own systems know the strengths, weaknesses and price for power of the computers they are building. The average Joe going out to buy a computer is going to go for a IBM, Dell, HP, Acer, ect.. and they are going to take the word of the teenage kid working for minimum wadge as gospel. Most of those kids, not fully understanding the tech or companies, are going to preach Intel superiority regardless of how good Steamroller may be simply because Intel is the "known" namebrand. That is the main reason why years ago when AMD was better than Intel processors Intel still outsold AMD. I liken it to Smith and Wesson vs Ruger revolvers. Smith and Wesson is the "known" name and noobs will always pay double what they would have to just to have the name even though Ruger revolvers outperform S&W and are usually half the cost. Salesmen will always be more than happy to sell the most expensive models too, even if your just paying for a name with no performance increase behind it. No matter how good Steamroller, and the next gen of APUs are AMD is going to have an uphill battle trying to compete against the "household namebrand".

When the Athlon 64 X2s kicked the Pentium D's ass people would still buy Intel more.

 

[truegenius]

intel wins majority of benchmarks and majority of games and if we keep ivy and pd at same tdp level (by fusing 2 i5-3350p or like this, means 8 cores and 125w tdp for both side) then ivy wins in every multithreaded task (thus more performance per watt)
means majority of time ivy wins
and an average joe wants best performer, he does not care about underlying principle

 

[gamerk316]

microsoft says they have 8 more exclusives to announce. dark souls and w/e square makes probably will go multiplat.

New IP's. So figure one or two good ones.

Secondly, I said JRPG's NOT made by Square-Enix (Namaco, I'm looking at you!)

 

[esrever]

intel wins majority of benchmarks and majority of games and if we keep ivy and pd at same tdp level (by fusing 2 i5-3350p or like this, means 8 cores and 125w tdp for both side) then ivy wins in every multithreaded task (thus more performance per watt)
means majority of time ivy wins
and an average joe wants best performer, he does not care about underlying principle

average joe probably cares about cost because an 8 core intel will cost more than $1000

 

[montosaurous]

Average Joes use laptops and tablets, not high end powerful desktops. I don't think the PC gaming industry is enough to keep AMD afloat. That is why they are going APU. They also need to improve power efficiency quite a lot, enough to at least rival Intel.

 

[truegenius]

and a dual core hyper threaded i3 is near 8 core pd in many tasks

 

[montosaurous]

i3 wins at very lightly threaded tasks, but still loses in everything else.